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Do Different Measurements of Soil Quality Influence the Results of a Ricardian Analysis? – A Case Study on the Effects of Climate Change on German Agriculture

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  • Schmidtner, Eva
  • Dabbert, Stephan
  • Lippert, Christian

Abstract

This study assesses the potential impact of future climate change on agricultural land rents in Germany using a Ricardian approach. In addition to including common explanatory variables, we focus on the effects of different indicators of soil characteristics when explaining land rental prices. The analysis is based on data from the official farm census 1999, weather data from the German National Meteorological Service and different soil data-bases at the county level. Different classifications of soil quality do not influence the results of our Ricardian analysis. The results of spatial error models indicate higher land rental prices for locations with more productive soils and higher mean annual temperatures. Also a lower land slope, a smaller share of rented land and (in some cases) less spring precipitation increase land rental prices. To estimate the effects of changing climatic conditions on future land rents, we draw on data from the regional climate model REMO for 2011-2040. Our models show an average land rent increase of 10-17% resulting from the expected changes in temperature and spring precipitation. According to our results future climate change will have an overall positive but spatially heterogeneous impact on the agricultural income in Germany. Mit Hilfe des Ricardischen Ansatzes untersucht diese Studie mögliche Auswirkungen des künftigen Klimawandels auf landwirtschaftliche Bodenrenten in Deutschland. Bei der Erklärung von Landpachtpreisen konzentrieren wir uns neben gängigen unabhängigen Variablen auf die Effekte verschiedener Indikatoren der Bodenqualität. Die Untersuchung basiert auf Daten der Landwirtschaftszählung 1999, Wetterdaten des Deutschen Wetterdienstes und unterschiedlichen Quellen zu Bodendaten auf Landkreisebene. Die Art des verwendeten Bodenqualitätsmaßes beeinflusst die Ergebnisse unserer Ricardischen Analyse nicht. Der Ergebnisse räumlicher Fehlermodelle deuten auf höhere Landpachtpreise in Gebieten mit sehr produktiven Böden und hoher Jahresdurchschnittstemperatur hin. Eine geringere Hangneigung, ein geringerer Anteil an gepachtetem Land und (in einigen Fällen) geringere Frühjahrsniederschläge führen ebenfalls zu höheren Landpachtpreisen. Um die Auswirkungen sich verändernder klimatischer Bedingungen auf künftige Bodenrenten abzuschätzen, nutzen wir Daten des regionalen Klimamodells REMO für den Zeitraum von 2011-2040. Unsere Modelle zeigen, dass die vorhergesagten Temperatur- und Niederschlagswerte einen durchschnittlichen Anstieg der Bodenrenten um etwa 10-17 % bedeuten würden. Entsprechend unserer Ergebnisse wird ein künftiger Klimawandel voraussichtlich einen insgesamt positiven aber räumlich heterogenen Einfluss auf das landwirtschaftliche Einkommen in Deutschland haben.

Suggested Citation

  • Schmidtner, Eva & Dabbert, Stephan & Lippert, Christian, 2015. "Do Different Measurements of Soil Quality Influence the Results of a Ricardian Analysis? – A Case Study on the Effects of Climate Change on German Agriculture," German Journal of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt-Universitaet zu Berlin, Department for Agricultural Economics, vol. 64(02), June.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:gjagec:270174
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.270174
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    1. Cord-Friedrich von Hobe & Marius Michels & Oliver Musshoff, 2021. "German Farmers’ Perspectives on Price Drivers in Agricultural Land Rental Markets—A Combination of a Systematic Literature Review and Survey Results," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-22, February.
    2. Josef Slaboch & Michal Malý, 2021. "Agriculture Land Price Setting Systems, and Possible Directions for Their Updating," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 69(6), pages 655-664.

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