Modeling the impact of global change on regional agricultural land use through an activity-based non-linear programming approach
AbstractAssessing the impact of climate change on agriculture is a new challenge for quantitative model-based policy analysis. The impact of climate change will vary strongly across regions depending on pre-existing climatic, agronomic, and political conditions. Most of the present modeling approaches, which aim to analyze the impact of global change on agriculture, deliver aggregated results both with regard to content and spatial resolution. To deliver results with a higher spatial resolution and to produce a more detailed picture of agricultural production, the county-based agro-economic model known as ACRE-Danube was developed. The German and Austrian part of the Upper Danube basin, a study area with great diversity in agricultural landscapes and climatic conditions, was chosen for study. For the analysis, two scenarios of climatic and socio-economic change were derived. The first and more economically and globally oriented scenario, termed "Full Liberalization," included significant temperature increases. The second and more environmentally and regionally oriented "Full Protection" scenario included a moderate temperature increase. Both scenarios produce different results regarding agricultural income and land use. While the developments in the Full Protection scenario are small, the Full Liberalization scenario yields extreme regional changes in agricultural income, an increase in cereal production and extensive grassland farming.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Agricultural Systems.
Volume (Year): 100 (2009)
Issue (Month): 1-3 (April)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/agsy
Global change Regional optimization model Global change scenarios Agricultural production;
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Henseler, Martin & Wirsig, Alexander & Krimly, Tatjana & Dabbert, Stephan, 2008. "The influence of climate change, technological progress and political change on agricultural land use: calculated scenarios for the Upper Danube catchment area," German Journal of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt-Universitaet zu Berlin, Department for Agricultural Economics, vol. 57(3/4).
- Ottmar R�hm & Stephan Dabbert, 2003. "Integrating Agri-Environmental Programs into Regional Production Models: An Extension of Positive Mathematical Programming," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 85(1), pages 254-265.
- Henseler, Martin & Wirsig, Alexander & Krimly, Tatjana, 2005. "Development, Testing and Application of ACRE: An Agro-Economic Production Model on Regional Level," 2005 International Congress, August 23-27, 2005, Copenhagen, Denmark 24770, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
- Flichman, Guillermo & Donatelli, Marcello & Louhichi, M.K. & Romstad, Eirik & Heckelei, Thomas & Auclair, D. & Garvey, E. & van Ittersum, Martin K. & Janssen, Sander J.C. & Elbersen, Berien S., 2006. "Quantitative models of SEAMLESS-IF and procedures for up-and downscaling," Reports 9297, SEAMLESS: System for Environmental and Agricultural Modelling, Linking European Science and Society.
- Fragoso, Rui Manuel de Sousa & Carvalho, Maria Leonor da Silva & Henriques, Pedro Damiao de Sousa, 2008. "Positive Mathematical Programming: a Comparison of Different Specification Rules," 2008 International Congress, August 26-29, 2008, Ghent, Belgium 44242, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
- Helming, John F.M. & van Berkum, Siemen, 2008. "Effects of abolition of the EU milk quota system for Dutch agriculture and environment," 2008 International Congress, August 26-29, 2008, Ghent, Belgium 43966, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
- Kirchner, Mathias & Schmid, Erwin, 2012. "How Do Agricultural Trade Policies Affect The Regional Environment? An Integrated Analysis For The Austrian Marchfeld Region," 52nd Annual Conference, Stuttgart, Germany, September 26-28, 2012 137160, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).
- Blanco-Gutierrez, Irene & Varela-Ortega, Consuelo & Purkey, David R., 2011. "Integrated Economic-Hydrologic Analysis Of Policy Responses To Promote Sustainable Water Use Under Changing Climatic Conditions," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114253, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
- Blanco-Gutiérrez, Irene & Varela-Ortega, Consuelo & Flichman, Guillermo, 2011. "Cost-effectiveness of groundwater conservation measures: A multi-level analysis with policy implications," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 98(4), pages 639-652, February.
- Varela-Ortega, Consuelo, 2011. "Participatory Modeling for Sustainable Development in Water and Agrarian Systems: Potential and Limits of Stakeholder Involvement," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 115546, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
- Aurbacher, Joachim & Parker, Phillip S. & Calberto Sánchez, Germán A. & Steinbach, Jennifer & Reinmuth, Evelyn & Ingwersen, Joachim & Dabbert, Stephan, 2013. "Influence of climate change on short term management of field crops – A modelling approach," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 44-57.
- Gallego-Ayala, Jordi & Gómez-Limón Rodríguez, José A., 2010. "Evaluación del impacto de la tarifación del agua de riego sobre la sostenibilidad del regadío: una aproximación a través de indicadores sintéticos/Impact assessment of irrigation water pricing i," Estudios de Economía Aplicada, Estudios de Economía Aplicada, vol. 28, pages 375-404, Agosto.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.