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Modeling the impact of global change on regional agricultural land use through an activity-based non-linear programming approach

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  • Henseler, Martin
  • Wirsig, Alexander
  • Herrmann, Sylvia
  • Krimly, Tatjana
  • Dabbert, Stephan

Abstract

Assessing the impact of climate change on agriculture is a new challenge for quantitative model-based policy analysis. The impact of climate change will vary strongly across regions depending on pre-existing climatic, agronomic, and political conditions. Most of the present modeling approaches, which aim to analyze the impact of global change on agriculture, deliver aggregated results both with regard to content and spatial resolution. To deliver results with a higher spatial resolution and to produce a more detailed picture of agricultural production, the county-based agro-economic model known as ACRE-Danube was developed. The German and Austrian part of the Upper Danube basin, a study area with great diversity in agricultural landscapes and climatic conditions, was chosen for study. For the analysis, two scenarios of climatic and socio-economic change were derived. The first and more economically and globally oriented scenario, termed "Full Liberalization," included significant temperature increases. The second and more environmentally and regionally oriented "Full Protection" scenario included a moderate temperature increase. Both scenarios produce different results regarding agricultural income and land use. While the developments in the Full Protection scenario are small, the Full Liberalization scenario yields extreme regional changes in agricultural income, an increase in cereal production and extensive grassland farming.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Agricultural Systems.

Volume (Year): 100 (2009)
Issue (Month): 1-3 (April)
Pages: 31-42

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Handle: RePEc:eee:agisys:v:100:y:2009:i:1-3:p:31-42

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/agsy

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Keywords: Global change Regional optimization model Global change scenarios Agricultural production;

References

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  1. Helming, John F.M. & van Berkum, Siemen, 2008. "Effects of abolition of the EU milk quota system for Dutch agriculture and environment," 2008 International Congress, August 26-29, 2008, Ghent, Belgium 43966, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
  2. Fragoso, Rui Manuel de Sousa & Carvalho, Maria Leonor da Silva & Henriques, Pedro Damiao de Sousa, 2008. "Positive Mathematical Programming: a Comparison of Different Specification Rules," 2008 International Congress, August 26-29, 2008, Ghent, Belgium 44242, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
  3. Henseler, Martin & Wirsig, Alexander & Krimly, Tatjana, 2005. "Development, Testing and Application of ACRE: An Agro-Economic Production Model on Regional Level," 2005 International Congress, August 23-27, 2005, Copenhagen, Denmark 24770, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
  4. Ottmar R�hm & Stephan Dabbert, 2003. "Integrating Agri-Environmental Programs into Regional Production Models: An Extension of Positive Mathematical Programming," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 85(1), pages 254-265.
  5. Henseler, Martin & Wirsig, Alexander & Krimly, Tatjana & Dabbert, Stephan, 2008. "The influence of climate change, technological progress and political change on agricultural land use: calculated scenarios for the Upper Danube catchment area," German Journal of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt-Universitaet zu Berlin, Department for Agricultural Economics, vol. 57(3/4).
  6. Flichman, Guillermo & Donatelli, Marcello & Louhichi, M.K. & Romstad, Eirik & Heckelei, Thomas & Auclair, D. & Garvey, E. & van Ittersum, Martin K. & Janssen, Sander J.C. & Elbersen, Berien S., 2006. "Quantitative models of SEAMLESS-IF and procedures for up-and downscaling," Reports 9297, SEAMLESS: System for Environmental and Agricultural Modelling, Linking European Science and Society.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Aurbacher, Joachim & Parker, Phillip S. & Calberto Sánchez, Germán A. & Steinbach, Jennifer & Reinmuth, Evelyn & Ingwersen, Joachim & Dabbert, Stephan, 2013. "Influence of climate change on short term management of field crops – A modelling approach," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 44-57.
  2. Blanco-Gutiérrez, Irene & Varela-Ortega, Consuelo & Flichman, Guillermo, 2011. "Cost-effectiveness of groundwater conservation measures: A multi-level analysis with policy implications," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 98(4), pages 639-652, February.
  3. Blanco-Gutierrez, Irene & Varela-Ortega, Consuelo & Purkey, David R., 2011. "Integrated Economic-Hydrologic Analysis Of Policy Responses To Promote Sustainable Water Use Under Changing Climatic Conditions," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114253, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
  4. Gallego-Ayala, Jordi & Gómez-Limón Rodríguez, José A., 2010. "Evaluación del impacto de la tarifación del agua de riego sobre la sostenibilidad del regadío: una aproximación a través de indicadores sintéticos/Impact assessment of irrigation water pricing i," Estudios de Economía Aplicada, Estudios de Economía Aplicada, vol. 28, pages 375-404, Agosto.
  5. Kirchner, Mathias & Schmid, Erwin, 2012. "How Do Agricultural Trade Policies Affect The Regional Environment? An Integrated Analysis For The Austrian Marchfeld Region," 52nd Annual Conference, Stuttgart, Germany, September 26-28, 2012 137160, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).
  6. Varela-Ortega, Consuelo, 2011. "Participatory Modeling for Sustainable Development in Water and Agrarian Systems: Potential and Limits of Stakeholder Involvement," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 115546, European Association of Agricultural Economists.

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