# Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge

# Cambridge Working Papers in Economics

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### 2004

**0413 Existence of Equilibria and Core Convergence in Economies with Bads***by*Hara, C.**0412 Modelling corporate tax liabilities using company accounts: a new framework***by*Ahmed, S.**0411 How Transparent Are Central Banks?***by*Eijffinger, S.C.W. & Geraats, P.M.**0410 Regulated and merchant interconnectors in Australia: SNI and Murraylink revisited***by*Littlechild, S.**0409 Border Tax Adjustments: A feasible way to address nonparticipation in Emission Trading***by*Ismer, R. & Neuhoff, K.**0408 Benchmarking and incentive regulation of quality of service: an application to the UK electricity distribution utilities***by*Giannakis, D. & T. Jamasb & Pollitt, M.G.**0407 Recent blackouts in US and continental Europe: is liberalisation to blame?***by*Bialek, J.W.**0406 Retail Competition and Electricity Contracts***by*Green, R.**0405 Network-constrained models of liberalized electricity markets: the devil is in the details***by*Barquin, J. & Boots,M. G. & Ehrenmann, A. & Hobbs, B.F. & Neuhoff, K. & Rijkers, F. A. M.**0404 Policy Compromises: Corruption and Regulation in a Dynamic Democracy***by*Aidt, T.S. & Dutta, J.**0403 Strategic Consensus***by*Aidt, T.S. & Dutta, J.**0402 Econometric Issues in the Analysis of Contagion***by*Pesaran, M.H. & Pick, A.**0401 A Simple Test for the Absence of Covariate Dependence in Duration Models***by*Bhattacharjee, A.

### 2003

**0348 A Bayesian Confidence Interval for Value-at-Risk***by*Contreras, P. & Satchell, S.E.**0347 On The Panel Unit Root Tests Using Nonlinear Instrumental Variables***by*Im, K.S. & Pesaran, M.H.**0346 A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in the Presence of Cross Section Dependence***by*Pesaran, M.H.**0345 Complexity and Competition, Part I: Sequential Matching***by*Gale, D. & Sabourian, H.**0344 Policy Myopia***by*Aidt, T. & Dutta, J. & Loukoianova, E.**0343 Online Price Dispersion Within and Between Seven European Countries***by*Gatti, J.R.J. & Kattuman, P.**0342 The Cutting Edge of Modernity: Machine Tools in the United States and Germany 1930-1945***by*Ristuccia , C.A. & Tooze, J.A.**0341 A Comparison of Electricity Market Designs in Networks***by*Ehrenmann, A. & Neuhoff, K.**0340 Market-based Investment in Electricity Transmission Networks: Controllable Flow***by*Brunekreeft, G.**0339 Using Neural Networks to Model Bounded Rationality in Interactive Decision-Making***by*Sgroi, D.**0338 Scope for Cost Minimization in Public Debt Management: the Case of the UK***by*Coe, P.J. & Pesaran, M.H. & Vahey, S.P.**0337 Estimation in Hazard Regression Models under Ordered Departures from Proportionality***by*Bhattacharjee, A.**0336 Distributed Generation versus Centralised Supply: a Social Cost-Benefit Analysis***by*Gullì, F.**0335 The Superiority of Tough Reviewers in a Model of Simultaneous Sales***by*Gill, D. & Sgroi, D.**0334 Product Launches with Biased Reviewers: The Importance of Not Being Earnest***by*Gill, D. & Sgroi, D.**0333 A Loss Aversion Performance Measure***by*Farah, N. & Satchell, S.E.**0332 Estimating Market Power in the Internet Backbone Using Band-X data***by*Giovannetti, E. & Ristuccia, C.A.**0331 Small Sample Properties of Forecasts from Autoregressive Models under Structural Breaks***by*Pesaran, M.H. & Timmermann, A.**0330 Macroeconomic Dynamics and Credit Risk: A Global Perspective***by*Pesaran, M.H. & Schuermann, T. & Treutler, B-J. & Weiner, S.M.**0329 Bayesian Estimation of Risk-Premia in an APT Context***by*Darsinos, T. & Satchell, S.E.**0328 The Difficult Transition to Competitive Electricity Markets in the U.S***by*Joskow, P.L.**0327 Diagnosing and Mitigating Market Power in Chile’s Electricity Industry***by*Arellano, M.S.**0326 Why did British Electricity Prices Fall after 1998?***by*Evans, J. & Green, R.**0325 Lessons form Phase 2 Compliance with the US Acid Rain Program***by*Ellerman, A.D.**0324 Merchant Transmission Investment***by*Joskow, P. & Tirole, J.**0323 The Irrelevance of Trade Union Recognition? A Comparison of Two Matched Companies***by*Brown, W. & Ryan, P.**0322 Markov Equilibria in Dynamic Matching and Bargaining Games***by*Gale, D. & Sabourian, H.**0321 Endogenous Correlation***by*Yang, J-H.S. & Satchell, S.E.**0320 Nonparametric Estimation of Multivariate Distributions with Given Marginals***by*Sancetta, A.**0319 Changing Correlation and Portfolio Diversification Failure in the Presence of Large Market Losses***by*Sancetta, A. & Satchell, S.E.**0318 Capital Taxation and Electoral Accountability***by*Aidt, T. & Magris, F.**0317 Assessing the efficient cost of sustaining Britain’s rail network: perspectives based on Zonal comparisons***by*Kennedy, J. & Smith, A.S.J.**0316 Welfare Impacts of Electricity Generation Sector Reform in the Philippines***by*Toba, N.**0315 Cross-Border Trade: A Two-Stage Equilibrium Model of the Florence Regulatory Forum Proposals***by*Daxhelet, O. & Smeers, Y.**0314 Introducing Competition in the French Electricity Supply Industry: The Destabilisation of a Public Hierarchy in an Open Institutional Environment***by*Finon, D.**0313 Nordic Electricity Congestion's Arrangement as a Model for Europe: Physical Constraints or Operators' Opportunity***by*Glanchant, J-M. & Pignon, V.**0312 Strategic Behaviour under Regulation Benchmarking***by*Jamasb, T. & Nillesen, P. & Pollitt, M.**0311 Transmission Pricing of Distributed Multilateral Energy Transactions to Ensure System Security and Guide Economic Dispatch***by*Ilic, M. & Hsieh, E. & Remanan, P.**0310 Integrating Transmission and Energy Markets Mitigates Market Power***by*Neuhoff, K.**0309 The Restructuring and Privatisation of Electricity Distribution and Supply Business in Brazil: A Social Cost-Benefit Analysis***by*Mota, R.L.**0308 Non-nested Models and the likelihood Ratio Statistic: A Comparison of Simulation and Bootstrap-based Tests***by*Kapetanios, G. & Weeks, M.**0307 ‘How Different is Wireless Access? Implications for Internet Mergers***by*Giovannetti, E.**0306 How Costly is it to Ignore Breaks when Forecasting the Direction of a Time Series?***by*Pesaran, H.M. & Timmermann, A.**0305 Estimation and Inference in Large Heterogeneous Panels with Cross Section Dependence***by*Pesaran, H.M.**0304 Market-induced Asset Specificity: Redefining the Hold-up Problem***by*Lewin-Solomons, S.**0303 On the Interaction of Monetary and Fiscal Policy***by*Chadha, J.S. & Nolan, C.**0302 Cyclical Components in Economic Time Series: a Bayesian Approach***by*Harvey, A. & TTrimbur, T. & van Dijk, H.**0301 Multivariate Unit Root Tests and Testing for Convergence***by*Harvey, A. & Bates, D.

### 2002

**0237 Testing for Drift in a Time Series***by*Busettti, F. & Harvey, A.**0236 Unions: Rent Extractors or Creators?***by*Aidt, T.S. & Vania Sena**0235 A Real Time Tax Smoothing Based Fiscal Policy Rule***by*Loukoianova, E. & Vahey, S.P. & Elizabeth C. Wakerly**0234 Auctions to gas transmission access: The British experience***by*Tanga McDaniel & Neuhoff, K.**0233 Auctions and trading in energy markets -- an economic analysis***by*Newbery, D. & Tanga McDaniel**0232 Technical efficiency in electricity generation - the impact of smallness and isolation of island economies***by*Preetum Domah**0231 The Temporal Efficiency of SO2 Emissions Trading***by*Ellerman, A.D. & Juan-Pablo Montero**0230 Regulatory Challenges to European Electricity Liberalisation***by*Newbery, D.**0229 Modelling the Costs of Electricity Regulation: Evidence of Human Resource Constraints in Developing Countries***by*Preetum Domah & Pollitt, M.G. & Jon Stern**0228 Regulatory Threat in Vertically Related Markets; The Case of German Electricity***by*Brunekreeft, G.**0227 Competition in Retail Electricity Supply***by*Stephen C. Littlechild**0226 Reform and Regulation of the Electricity Sectors in Developing Countries***by*Jamasb, T.**0225 Allocating Transmission to Mitigate Market Power in Electricity Networks***by*Richard Gilbert & Neuhoff, K. & Newbery, D.**0224 Optimal Simple Rules for the Conduct of Monetary and Fiscal Policy***by*Chadha, J.S. & Charles Nolan**0223 The Operation of the Low Pay Commission***by*Brown, W.**0222 New Test Statistics for Market Timing with Application to Emerging markets***by*A. Sancetta & Satchell, S.E.**0221 Growth, Cycles and Convergence in US Regional Time Series***by*Vasco M.Carvalho & Andrew C.Harvey**0220 Testing Proportionality in Duration Models with Respect to Continuous Covariates***by*Bhattacharjee, A. & Samarjit Das**0219 The Impact of Technical Analysis on Asset Price Dynamics***by*J.-H. Steffi Yang & Satchell, S.E.**0218 On the Valuation of Warrants and Executive Stock Options: Pricing Formulae for Firms with Multiple Warrants/Executive Options***by*Darsinos, T. & Satchell, S.E.**0217 The Implied Distribution for Stocks of Companies with Warrants and/or Executive Stock Options***by*Darsinos, T. & Satchell, S.E.**0216 Models for Converging Economies***by*Harvey, A. & Vasco Carvalho**0214 Optimal congestion treatment for bilateral electricity trading***by*Neuhoff, K.**0213 Use of Long-term Auctions for Network Investment***by*Tanga McDaniel & Neuhoff, K.**0212 Relative Performance of UK and Japanese Electricity Distribution Systems 1985-1998: Lessons for Incentive Regulation***by*Toru Hattori & Jamasb, T. & Pollitt, M.G.**0211 A Quantitative Analysis of Pricing Behavior In California’s Wholesale Electricity Market During Summer 2000***by*Joskow, P. & Edward Kahn**0210 Issues and Options for Restructuring Electricity Supply Industries***by*Newbery, D.**0209 Exchange Rate Monitoring Bands: Theory and Policy***by*Corrado, L. & Marcus Miller & Lei Zhang**0208 British Episodic Economic Growth 1850-1938***by*S. Solomou & C. A. Ristuccia**0207 Strategy Learning in 3x3 Games by Neural Networks***by*D. Sgroi & D. J. Zizzo**0206 Macro Economic Instability and Business Exit: Determinants of Failures and Acquisitions of Large UK Firms***by*A. Bhattacharjee & Higson, C. & Holly, S. & Kattuman, P.**0205 Modelling Experience as Signal Accumulation***by*Sgroi, D.**0204 Output, Inflation and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve***by*Chadha, J.S. & Charles Nolan**0203 Inflation and Price Level Targeting in a New Keynesian Model***by*Chadha, J.S. & Charles Nolan**0202 Electricity Diffusion and Trend Acceleration in Inter-War Manufacturing Productivity***by*Ristuccia , C.A. & Solomou, S.**0201 Generalised Mean-Variance Analysis and Robust Portfolio Diversification***by*Wright, S.M. & Satchell, S.E.

### 2001

**0119 Modelling Regional Interdependencies Using a Global Error-Correcting Macroeconometric Model***by*Pesaran, M.H. & Weiner, S.M.**0118 The Restructuring and Privatisation of British Rail: Was it really that bad?***by*Pollitt, M. & Smith, A.S.J.**0117 Global Influences on UK Manufacturing Prices***by*Coutts, K. & Norman, N.R.**0116 Bayesian Forecasting of Options Prices: A Natural Framework for Pooling Historical and Implied Volatiltiy Information***by*Darsinos, T. & Satchell, S.E.**0115 International Benchmarking and Yardstick Regulation: An Application to European Electricity Utilities***by*Jamasb, T. & Pollitt, M.**0114 The Business Cycle, Macroeconomic Shocks and the Cross Section: The Growth of UK Quoted Companies***by*Higson, C. & Holly, S. & Kattuman, P. & S. Platis**0113 General Model-based Filters for Extracting Cycles and Trends in Economic Time Series***by*Harvey, A.C. & Trimbur, T.M.**0112 Competitive Bidding for a Long-term Electricity Distribution Contract***by*Littlechild, S.C.**0111 The National Minimum Wage and In-work Poverty***by*Sutherland, H.**0110 Combining Household Income and Expenditure Data in Policy Simulations***by*Sutherland, H. & Taylor, R. & Gomulka, J.**0109 Improving the Estimates of the Risk Premia - Application in the UK Financial Market***by*M. Pitsillis & S. Satchell**0108 Productivity and Preferences in a Small Open Economy***by*Chadha, J. S. & Janssen, N. & Nolan, C.Author-X-Name-First: C.**0107 A Tracing Method for Pricing Inter-Area Electricity Trades***by*Kattuman, P.A. & Green, R.J. & Bialek, J.W.**0106 Controlling the Herd: Applications of Herding Theory***by*D. Sgroi**0105 Bernstein Approximations to the Copula Function and Portfolio Optimization***by*A. Sancetta & Satchell, S.E.**0104 The Derivation of a New Model of Equity Duration***by*Lewin, R.A. & Satchell, S.E.**0103 Supply Shocks and the ‘Natural Rate of Interest': an Exploration***by*Chadha, J.S. & Nolan, C.**0102 Bayesian Analysis of the Black-Scholes Option Price***by*Darsinos, T. & Satchell, S.E.**0101 Benchmarking and Regulation of Electricity Transmission and Distribution Utilities: Lessons from International Experience***by*Jamasb, T. & Pollitt, M.

### 2000

**0031 Induced Technical Change: Evidence and Implications for Energy-Environmental Modelling and Policy***by*Grubb, M. & Kohler, J.**0030 On the Range of the Risk-Free Interest Rate in Incomplete Markets***by*Kajii, A. & Hara, C.**0029 The Measurement and Determination of Institutional Change: Evidence from Transition Economics***by*Raiser, M. & Di Tommaso, M.L. & Weeks, M.**0028 The Transparency and Accountability of UK Debt Management: A Proposal***by*Coe, P. & Vahey S.P. & Wakerly, E.C.**0027 The Plural Form in Franchising: A Synergism of Market and Hierarchy***by*Lewin-Solomons, S.B.**0026 A Review of UK Electricity Regulation***by*Littlechild, S.**0025 Fiscal Drag - An Automatic Stabiliser?***by*Immervoll, H.**0024 An Examination of UK Business Cycle Fluctuations: 1871-1997***by*Chadha, J.S. & Janssen, N. & Nolan, C.**0023 Optimal Monetary Policy with Sticky Nominal Debt Contracts***by*Wright, S.**0022 Intra-Firm Retail Contracting: Survey Evidence from the UK'***by*Affuso, L.**0021 Comparing Investment on New Transport Infrastructure: Roads vs. Railways?***by*Affuso, L. & Masson, J. & Newbery, D.M.**0020 The Environmental Benefits from Road Pricing***by*Santos, G. & Rojey, L. & Newbery, D.M.**0019 Piecewise Linear Feedback Rules in a Non Linear Model of the Phillips Curve: Evidence from the US and the UK***by*Corrado, L. & Holly, S.**0018 Strategy Choices of Firms and Market Concentration'***by*Kattuman, P. & Roberts, B.M.**0017 The Rise of Environmentalism, Pollution Taxes and Intra-Industry Trade***by*Aidt, T.S.**0016 Autonomy, Contractibility and the Franchise Relationship***by*Lewin-Solomons, S.**0015 Innovation and Authority in Franchise Systems: An Empirical Exploration of the Plural Form***by*Lewin-Solomons, S.**0014 The School-to-Work Transition: A Cross-National Perspective***by*Ryan, P.**0013 Asset Specificity and Hold-up in Franchising and Grower Contracts: A Theoretical Rationale for Government Regulation?***by*Lewin-Solomons, S.**0012 Perpetual Leapfrogging in Bertrand Duopoly***by*Giovannetti, E.**0011 Interconnection, Differentiation and Bottlenecks in the Internet***by*Giovannetti, E.**0010 Provincial Income Convergence in China, 1953-1997: a Panel Data Approach***by*Yudon, Y. & Weeks, M.**0009 Decision Structures and Discrete Choices: An Application to Labour Market Participation and Fertility***by*Di Tommaso, M.L. & Weeks, M.**0008 Why We Need Electricity Retailers: A Reply to Joskow on Wholesale Spot Price pass-through***by*Littlechild, S.C.**0007 The Restructuring and Privatisation of Electricity Distribution and Supply Businesses in England and Wales: A Social Cost Benefit Analysis***by*Domah, P. & Pollitt, M.G.**0006 Employment Polarisation and Inequality in the UK and Hungary***by*Redmond, G. & Kattuman, P.**0005 The Cost Efficiency of UK Debt Management: A Recursive Modelling Approach***by*Coe, P. & Pesaran, M.H. & Vahey, S.P.**0004 Forecast Uncertainties in Macroeconometric Modelling: An Application to the UK Economy***by*Garrat, A. & Lee, K. & Pesaran, M.H. & Shin, Y.**0003 Estimation and Inference in Short Panel Vector Autoregressions with Unit Roots and Cointegration***by*Binder, M. & Hsaio, C. & Pesaran, M.H.**0001 The Declining Role of the State in Infrastructure Investments in the UK***by*M.G. Pollitt

### 1999

**9921 Inflation Targeting, Transparency and Interest Rate Volatility: Ditching 'Monetary Mystique' in the UK***by*Nolan, C. & Chadha, J.S.**9920 Monetary Policy Loss Functions: Two Cheers for the Quadratic***by*Schellekens, P. & Chadha, J.S.**9919 On Aggregation of Linear Dynamic Models***by*Pesaran, M. H.**9918 Non-nested Hypothesis Testing: An Overview***by*Pesaran, M. H. & Weeks, M.**9917 Effective Exchange Rates in Japan, 1879-1938***by*Shimazaki, M. & Solomou, S.**9916 On the Evolution of Regional Asymmetries***by*Giovannetti, E.**9915 Weather Effects on European Agricultural Output 1850-1913***by*Solomou, S. & Wu, W.**9914 On Interdependent Supergames: Multimarket Contact, Concavity, and Collusion***by*Spagnolo, G.**9913 Issue Linkage, Delegation, and International Policy Cooperation***by*Spagnolo, G.**9912 The Statistical Relationship between Bivariate and Multinomial Choice Models***by*Weeks, M. & Orne, C.**9911 Testing for Infinite Order Stochastic Dominance with Applications to Finance, Risk and Income Inequality***by*Knight, J. & Satchell, S.**9910 Economic and Statistical Measures of Forecast Accuracy***by*Granger, C.W.J. & Pesaran, M. H.**9909 The Evolution of Portfolio Rules and the Capital Asset Pricing Model***by*Sciubba, E.**9908 Asymmetric Information and Survival in Financial Markets***by*Sciubba, E.**9907 Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Long-run Relationships***by*Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Y. & Smith, R.J.**9906 Model Selection in Threshold Models***by*Kapetanios, G.**9905 Threshold Models for Trended Time Series***by*Kapetanios, G.**9904 Neglected Heterogeneity and Dynamics in Cross-country Savings Regressions***by*Haque, N. U. & Pesaran, M. H. & Sharma, Sunil**9903 Expenditure on Environmentally Sensitive Goods and Services: Household Spending in Europe***by*Kohler, J. & Luhmann, H-J & Wadeskog, A**9902 Tests of Common Stochastic Trends***by*Nyblom, Jukka & Harvey, Andrew**9901 A survey of the liberalisation of public enterprises in the UK since 1979***by*Pollitt, M.G.**0002 (1) Modelling RETA: A Model of Forward Trading and the Balancing Mechanism AND (2) Rebidding in the Balancing Mechanism: An Economic Analysis***by*McDaniel, T. & Green, R.

### 1998

**9826 Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Fixed Effects Dynamic Panel Data Models Covering Short Time Periods***by*Hsaio, Cheng & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Tahmiscioglu, A. Kamil**9825 An Empirical Reassessment of Target-zone Nonlinearities***by*Garratt, Anthony & Psaradakis, Zacharias & Sola, Martin**9824 A Citizen's Pension***by*Sutherland, H**9823 A Structural Cointegrating VAR Approach to Macroeconometric Modelling***by*Garratt, Anthony & Lee, Kevin C & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol**9822 The Good News and the Bad News about Long-run Stock Market Returns***by*Robertson, Donald & Wright, Stephen**9821 Statistical Properties of the Sample Semi-variance, with Applications to Emerging Markets' Data***by*Bond, Shaun A & Satchell, Stephen E**9820 Monetary Policy, Nominal Interest Rates, and Long-horizon Inflation Uncertainty***by*Wright, Stephen**9819 Utility Functions with Parameters Depending on Initial Wealth***by*Pedersen, Christian C & Satchell, Stephen E**9818 Economic Trends and Macroeconomic Policies in Post-revolutionary Iran***by*Pesaran, M. H.**9817 Recasting Safety Nets: Reforming Social Assistance in Germany, Ireland and the United Kingdom***by*Donoghue, C. & Evans, M.**9816 Towards a Two-rate VAT in Italy: Distributional and Welfare Effects***by*Gastaldi, F. & Liberati, P.**9815 Microsimulation and Policy Debate: A Case Study of the Minimum Pension Guarantee in Britain***by*Atkinson, A. B. & Sutherland, H.**9814 Effective Exchange Rates, 1879-1913***by*Solomou, S. & Catao, L.**9813 Weather Impacts on the Construction Sector, 1855-1913***by*Solomou, S. & Wu, W.**9812 A Long-run Structural Macro-econometric Model of the UK***by*Garratt, A. & Lee, K. & Pesaran, M. H. & Shin, Y.**9811 Structural Analysis of Cointegrating VARs***by*Pesaran, M. H. & Smith, Ron P.**9810 Financial Integration and Monetary Competition***by*Cardarelli, R. & Vidal, J.-P.**9809 Economic Integration and Growth under Intergenerational Financing of Human Capital Formation***by*Michel, P. & Vidal., J.-P.**9808 Analytical and Numerical Solution of Finite-horizon Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models***by*Binder, M. & Pesaran, M. H. & Samiei, S. H.**9807 Global Equity Styles and Industry Effects: Portfolio Construction via Dummy Variables***by*Kuo, G. W. & Satchell, S. E.**9806 Modelling Emerging Market Risk Premia using Higher Moments***by*Hwang, S. & Satchell, S. E.**9805 Optimal Consumption Decisions under Social Interactions***by*Binder, M. & Pesaran, M. H.**9804 Bayes Estimation of Short-run Coefficients in Dynamic Panel Data Models***by*Hsiao, C. & Pesaran, M. H. & Tahmiscioglu, A. K.**9803 Cross-sectional Aggregation of Non-linear Models***by*Van Garderen, K. J. & Lee, K. & Pesaran M.**9802 Bias Reduction in Estimating Long-run Relationships from Dynamic Heterogenous Panels***by*Pesaran, M. H. & Zhao, Z.**9801 Death and Gender in Victorian England and Wales: Comparisons with Contemporary Developing Countries***by*McNay, K. & Humphries, J. & Klasen, S.

### 1997

**9735 Risk, Utility an Switching between Gambles***by*Pedersen, C. S. & Satchell, S. E.**9734 Pool Reform and Competition in Electricity, forthcoming in M. Beesley (ed.), Lectures on Regulation Series VII, London, Institute of Economic Affairs***by*Newbery, D. M.**9733 Multiperson Bargaining and Strategic Complexity***by*Chatterjee, K. & Sabourian, H.**9732 A Neglected Controversy in the Modelling of Consumers' Expenditure***by*Cook, Steven**9731 Dividends, Safety and Liquidation when Liabilities are Long-term and Stochastic***by*Mason, Robin**9730 Equity Price Dynamics in Thin Emerging Markets of Central and Eastern Europe***by*Sokalska, M.