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Overconfidence by Bayesian-Rational Agents

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Vilkkumaa, Eeva & Liesiö, Juuso & Salo, Ahti, 2014. "Optimal strategies for selecting project portfolios using uncertain value estimates," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 233(3), pages 772-783.
  2. Michael D. Grubb, 2015. "Overconfident Consumers in the Marketplace," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 29(4), pages 9-36, Fall.
  3. Markus M. Möbius & Muriel Niederle & Paul Niehaus & Tanya S. Rosenblat, 2022. "Managing Self-Confidence: Theory and Experimental Evidence," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(11), pages 7793-7817, November.
  4. Lu, Xin & Shang, Jennifer & Wu, Shin-yi & Hegde, Gajanan G. & Vargas, Luis & Zhao, Daozhi, 2015. "Impacts of supplier hubris on inventory decisions and green manufacturing endeavors," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 245(1), pages 121-132.
  5. Alonso, Ricardo & Câmara, Odilon, 2016. "Political disagreement and information in elections," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 390-412.
  6. Maxime Menuet & Petros G. Sekeris, 2021. "Overconfidence and conflict," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 59(4), pages 1483-1499, October.
  7. Mikael Apel & Carl Andreas Claussen & Petra Gerlach-Kristen & Petra Lennartsdotter & Øistein Røisland, 2013. "Monetary policy decisions – comparing theory and “inside” information from MPC members," Working Paper 2013/03, Norges Bank.
  8. Meng Li & Nicholas C. Petruzzi & Jun Zhang, 2017. "Overconfident Competing Newsvendors," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(8), pages 2637-2646, August.
  9. J. A. García & Rosa Rodriguez-Sánchez & J. Fdez-Valdivia, 2016. "Why the referees’ reports I receive as an editor are so much better than the reports I receive as an author?," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 106(3), pages 967-986, March.
  10. Louis Lévy-Garboua & Muniza Askari & Marco Gazel, 2018. "Confidence biases and learning among intuitive Bayesians," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 84(3), pages 453-482, May.
  11. Ellina, Polina & Mascarenhas, Briance & Theodossiou, Panayiotis, 2020. "Clarifying managerial biases using a probabilistic framework," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
  12. Louis Lévy-Garboua & Muniza Askari & Marco Gazel, 2018. "Confidence biases and learning among intuitive Bayesians," Post-Print hal-01558394, HAL.
  13. Kataria, Mitesh, 2017. "How long do you think it will take? Field Evidence on Gender Differences in Time Optimism," Working Papers in Economics 694, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
  14. John S. Chen & David C. Croson & Daniel W. Elfenbein & Hart E. Posen, 2018. "The Impact of Learning and Overconfidence on Entrepreneurial Entry and Exit," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 29(6), pages 989-1009, December.
  15. Martin Koudstaal & Randolph Sloof & Mirjam van Praag, 2015. "Are Entrepreneurs more Optimistic and Overconfident than Managers and Employees?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 15-124/VII, Tinbergen Institute.
  16. Choi, Tsan-Ming, 2018. "Incorporating social media observations and bounded rationality into fashion quick response supply chains in the big data era," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 386-397.
  17. Hendrik Hakenes & Svetlana Katolnik, 2018. "Optimal Team Size and Overconfidence," Group Decision and Negotiation, Springer, vol. 27(4), pages 665-687, August.
  18. Alonso, Ricardo & Câmara, Odilon, 2016. "Bayesian persuasion with heterogeneous priors," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 672-706.
  19. Xiaochao Wei & Yanfei Zhang & Qi Liao & Guihua Nie, 2022. "Multi-Agent Simulation of Product Diffusion in Online Social Networks from the Perspective of Overconfidence and Network Effects," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-18, May.
  20. Daniel Albert, 2025. "Rapid Learning and Adaptive Search in Complex Environments: How Underestimating Noise in Performance Feedback Can Leverage and Resolve Errors of Commission," Strategy Science, INFORMS, vol. 10(4), pages 316-337, December.
  21. Uri Gneezy & Moshe Hoffman & Mark A Lane & John A List & Jeffrey A Livingston & Michael J Seiler, 2023. "Can wishful thinking explain evidence for overconfidence? An experiment on belief updating," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 75(1), pages 35-54.
  22. Thomas {AA}stebro & Frank M. Fossen & C'edric Gutierrez, 2026. "Attitudes Toward Ambiguity Among Self-employed and Incorporated Entrepreneurs," Papers 2603.14148, arXiv.org.
  23. Sekeris, Petros G., 2025. "Propaganda and conflict," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 569-585.
  24. Shoufeng Ji & Dan Zhao & Xiaoshuai Peng, 2018. "Joint Decisions on Emission Reduction and Inventory Replenishment with Overconfidence and Low-Carbon Preference," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-21, April.
  25. Citci, Sadettin Haluk & Inci, Eren, 2016. "Career concerns and Bayesian overconfidence of managers," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 137-159.
  26. Johannes Binswanger & Anja Garbely & Manuel Oechslin, 2023. "Investor beliefs about transformative innovations under uncertainty," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 90(360), pages 1119-1144, October.
  27. Jiang, Li & Hao, Zhongyuan, 2024. "Holding diverse market beliefs by firms: Information flow, profit performances, and channel structure," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
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