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The Consensus of Subjective Probability Distributions

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Guo, Jian & (Steven) Li, Zhaojun & (Judy) Jin, Jionghua, 2018. "System reliability assessment with multilevel information using the Bayesian melding method," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 146-158.
  2. François Bachoc & Emile Contal & Hassan Maatouk & Didier Rullière, 2017. "Gaussian processes for computer experiments," Post-Print hal-01665936, HAL.
  3. Utkin, Lev V., 2006. "A method for processing the unreliable expert judgments about parameters of probability distributions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 175(1), pages 385-398, November.
  4. Hurley, W. J. & Lior, D. U., 2002. "Combining expert judgment: On the performance of trimmed mean vote aggregation procedures in the presence of strategic voting," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 140(1), pages 142-147, July.
  5. Kenneth Wallis, 2011. "Combining forecasts - forty years later," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1-2), pages 33-41.
  6. Makariou, Despoina & Barrieu, Pauline & Tzougas, George, 2021. "A finite mixture modelling perspective for combining experts’ opinions with an application to quantile-based risk measures," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 110763, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  7. Mohammad J. Abdolmohammadi & Paul D. Berger, 1986. "Une expérience sur la précision des techniques d‘évaluation des probabilités en vérification," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 3(1), pages 166-183, September.
  8. Liu, Li & Wang, Yudong & Yang, Li, 2018. "Predictability of crude oil prices: An investor perspective," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 193-205.
  9. Robert Inman, 1981. "On setting the agenda for Pennsylvania school finance reform: An exercise in giving policy advice," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 449-474, January.
  10. Robert J. Budnitz & George Apostolakis & David M. Boore & Lloyd S. Cluff & Kevin J. Coppersmith & C. Allin Cornell & Peter A. Morris, 1998. "Use of Technical Expert Panels: Applications to Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 18(4), pages 463-469, August.
  11. Irene Valsecchi, 2008. "Learning from Experts," Working Papers 2008.35, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  12. Patrizio Frederic & Mario Di Bacco & Frank Lad, 2012. "Combining expert probabilities using the product of odds," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 73(4), pages 605-619, October.
  13. Wang, W., 1997. "Subjective estimation of the delay time distribution in maintenance modelling," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 99(3), pages 516-529, June.
  14. Hanea, D.M. & Jagtman, H.M. & van Alphen, L.L.M.M. & Ale, B.J.M., 2010. "Quantitative and qualitative analysis of the expert and non-expert opinion in fire risk in buildings," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 95(7), pages 729-741.
  15. Hoi K. Suen, 1984. "A Procedure for the Derivation of the Best Estimate When Empirical Data Are Unattainable," Evaluation Review, , vol. 8(5), pages 734-743, October.
  16. Christian Kascha & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2010. "Combining inflation density forecasts," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1-2), pages 231-250.
  17. Hardaker, J. B., 1982. "Fundamental Aspects Of Risk And Uncertainty In Agriculture," Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 21(2), October.
  18. Eggstaff, Justin W. & Mazzuchi, Thomas A. & Sarkani, Shahram, 2014. "The effect of the number of seed variables on the performance of Cooke′s classical model," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 72-82.
  19. Joseph Kadane & Javier Girón & Daniel Peña & Peter Fishburn & Simon French & D. Lindley & Giovanni Parmigiani & Robert Winkler, 1993. "Several Bayesians: A review," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 2(1), pages 1-32, December.
  20. Kenneth C. Lichtendahl & Yael Grushka-Cockayne & Victor Richmond Jose & Robert L. Winkler, 2022. "Extremizing and Antiextremizing in Bayesian Ensembles of Binary-Event Forecasts," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 70(5), pages 2998-3014, September.
  21. Tommaso Proietti & Martyna Marczak & Gianluigi Mazzi, 2017. "Euromind‐ D : A Density Estimate of Monthly Gross Domestic Product for the Euro Area," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(3), pages 683-703, April.
  22. Mohammad J. Abdolmohammadi & Paul D. Berger, 1986. "A test of the accuracy of probability assessment techniques in auditing," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 3(1), pages 149-165, September.
  23. Jen Tang & Kwei Tang & Herbert Moskowitz, 1997. "Exact bayesian estimation of system reliability from component test data," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 44(1), pages 127-146, February.
  24. Anderson, Jock R. & Hardaker, J. Brian, 1972. "An Appreciation of Decision Analysis in Management," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 40(04), pages 1-15, December.
  25. Jennifer Kuzma & Jordan Paradise & Gurumurthy Ramachandran & Jee‐Ae Kim & Adam Kokotovich & Susan M. Wolf, 2008. "An Integrated Approach to Oversight Assessment for Emerging Technologies," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(5), pages 1197-1220, October.
  26. Atanasov, Pavel & Witkowski, Jens & Mellers, Barbara & Tetlock, Philip, 2025. "Crowd prediction systems: Markets, polls, and elite forecasters," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 580-595.
  27. Kevin JS. Zollman, 2012. "Social network structure and the achievement of consensus," Politics, Philosophy & Economics, , vol. 11(1), pages 26-44, February.
  28. John W. Boudreau, 2004. "50th Anniversary Article: Organizational Behavior, Strategy, Performance, and Design in Management Science," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(11), pages 1463-1476, November.
  29. Jozsef Mezei & Peter Sarlin, 2014. "Aggregation operators for the measurement of systemic risk," Papers 1412.5452, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2014.
  30. Joseph Lipscomb & Giovanni Parmigiani & Vic Hasselblad, 1998. "Combining Expert Judgment by Hierarchical Modeling: An Application to Physician Staffing," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 44(2), pages 149-161, February.
  31. Justin W. Eggstaff & Thomas A. Mazzuchi & Shahram Sarkani, 2014. "The Development of Progress Plans Using a Performance‐Based Expert Judgment Model to Assess Technical Performance and Risk," Systems Engineering, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 17(4), pages 375-391, December.
  32. Fu, Qi & Zhu, Kaijie, 2010. "Endogenous information acquisition in supply chain management," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 201(2), pages 454-462, March.
  33. Robert T. Clemen & Robert L. Winkler, 1999. "Combining Probability Distributions From Experts in Risk Analysis," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 19(2), pages 187-203, April.
  34. Timo Henckel & Shaun Vahey & Liz Wakerly, 2011. "Probabilistic Interest Rate Setting with a Shadow Board: A Description of the Pilot Project," CAMA Working Papers 2011-27, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  35. Palfrey, Thomas R. & Wang, Stephanie W., 2009. "On eliciting beliefs in strategic games," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 98-109, August.
  36. Stephen C. Hora, 2004. "Probability Judgments for Continuous Quantities: Linear Combinations and Calibration," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(5), pages 597-604, May.
  37. Julia R. Falconer & Eibe Frank & Devon L. L. Polaschek & Chaitanya Joshi, 2022. "Methods for Eliciting Informative Prior Distributions: A Critical Review," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 19(3), pages 189-204, September.
  38. Sharon-Lise T. Normand & Richard G. Frank & Thomas G. McGuire, 2002. "Using Elicitation Techniques to Estimate the Value of Ambulatory Treatments for Major Depression," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 22(3), pages 245-261, June.
  39. Bergen, Matías & Muñoz, Francisco D., 2018. "Quantifying the effects of uncertain climate and environmental policies on investments and carbon emissions: A case study of Chile," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 261-273.
  40. David M. Pennock & Michael P. Wellman, 2005. "Graphical Models for Groups: Belief Aggregation and Risk Sharing," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 2(3), pages 148-164, September.
  41. Stratigakos, Akylas & Pineda, Salvador & Morales, Juan Miguel, 2025. "Decision-focused linear pooling for probabilistic forecast combination," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 1112-1125.
  42. Cho, Sungbin, 2009. "A linear Bayesian stochastic approximation to update project duration estimates," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 196(2), pages 585-593, July.
  43. Li, Yongquan & Zhu, Kaijie, 2009. "Information acquisition in new product introduction," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 198(2), pages 618-625, October.
  44. Knut Are Aastveit & James Mitchell & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman van Dijk, 2018. "The Evolution of Forecast Density Combinations in Economics," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 18-069/III, Tinbergen Institute.
  45. Neil A. Stiber & Mitchell J. Small & Marina Pantazidou, 2004. "Site‐Specific Updating and Aggregation of Bayesian Belief Network Models for Multiple Experts," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 24(6), pages 1529-1538, December.
  46. Greig, I.D., 1981. "Agricultural Research Management and the Ex Ante Evaluation of Research Proposals : A Review," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 49(02), pages 1-22, August.
  47. Despoina Makariou & Pauline Barrieu & George Tzougas, 2021. "A Finite Mixture Modelling Perspective for Combining Experts’ Opinions with an Application to Quantile-Based Risk Measures," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(6), pages 1-25, June.
  48. Marcello Basili & Luca Pratelli, 2013. "Aggregation of not necessarily independent opinions," Department of Economics University of Siena 677, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
  49. Wang, Xiaoqian & Hyndman, Rob J. & Li, Feng & Kang, Yanfei, 2023. "Forecast combinations: An over 50-year review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 1518-1547.
  50. James E. Smith & Detlof von Winterfeldt, 2004. "Anniversary Article: Decision Analysis in Management Science," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(5), pages 561-574, May.
  51. Yang, Dazhi & van der Meer, Dennis, 2021. "Post-processing in solar forecasting: Ten overarching thinking tools," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
  52. A. Charisse Farr & Kerrie Mengersen & Fabrizio Ruggeri & Daniel Simpson & Paul Wu & Prasad Yarlagadda, 2020. "Combining Opinions for Use in Bayesian Networks: A Measurement Error Approach," International Statistical Review, International Statistical Institute, vol. 88(2), pages 335-353, August.
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