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Une expérience sur la précision des techniques d‘évaluation des probabilités en vérification

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  • MOHAMMAD J. ABDOLMOHAMMADI
  • PAUL D. BERGER

Abstract

Résumé. Soixante†deux vérificateurs/praticiens ont pris part à une expérience d'estimation du solde d'un compte. Ayant reçu au préalable un matériel d'apprentissage à la fois écrit et oral, ils ont utilisé quatre techniques de déduction (FDC, FDP, EPE, et EFH) afin de quantifier leurs croyances subjectives ayant trait au solde de comptes clients d'un cas de vérification. Leurs réponses furent par la suite comparées aux résultats d'une étude de simulation portant sur six cents (600) échantillons, au moyen de la règle de pointage quadratique, de même qu'à la distribution résultant d'un consensus parmi tous les sujets en utilisant la mesure de Kolmogorov†Smirnov. Les résultats montrent que la technique de déduction FDP produit la distribution de probabilités préalables la plus précise pour utilisation dans le contexte de l'analyse Bayesienne. Les trois autres techniques de déduction se sont révélées égales entre elles, dans la mesure où leur précision était inférieure à celle de la technique de déduction FDP.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohammad J. Abdolmohammadi & Paul D. Berger, 1986. "Une expérience sur la précision des techniques d‘évaluation des probabilités en vérification," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 3(1), pages 166-183, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:coacre:v:3:y:1986:i:1:p:166-183
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1911-3846.1986.tb00632.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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