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Updating the Recession Risk and the Excess Bond Premium

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Tamaki Descombes & Clément Torres & Paul Sabalot, 2026. "Mesurer en temps réel les anticipations par les marchés financiers du retournement de l’activité économique," Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 264.
  2. Olli Palm'en, 2022. "Macroeconomic Effect of Uncertainty and Financial Shocks: a non-Gaussian VAR approach," Papers 2202.10834, arXiv.org.
  3. Francesca Loria & Christian Matthes & Donghai Zhang, 2025. "Assessing Macroeconomic Tail Risk," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 135(665), pages 264-284.
  4. Georgiadis, Georgios & Jarociński, Marek, 2025. "Global spillovers from multi-dimensional US monetary policy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
  5. Melina, Giovanni & Villa, Stefania, 2023. "Drivers of large recessions and monetary policy responses," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
  6. Breitenlechner, Max & Georgiadis, Georgios & Schumann, Ben, 2022. "What goes around comes around: How large are spillbacks from US monetary policy?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 45-60.
  7. Daisuke Ikeda & Mayumi Ojima & Koji Takahashi, 2019. "Financial Interconnectedness, Amplification, and Cross-Border Activity," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 19-E-11, Bank of Japan.
  8. Michael B. Devereux & Charles Engel & Giovanni Lombardo, 2020. "Implementable Rules for International Monetary Policy Coordination," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 68(1), pages 108-162, March.
  9. Travis Adams & Andrea Ajello & Diego Silva & Francisco Vazquez-Grande, 2023. "More than Words: Twitter Chatter and Financial Market Sentiment," Papers 2305.16164, arXiv.org.
  10. Breitenlechner, Max & Scharler, Johann, 2021. "Monetary policy announcements and bank lending: Do banks’ refinancing markets matter?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
  11. Ibarra-Ramírez Raúl, 2021. "The Yield Curve as a Predictor of Economic Activity in Mexico: The Role of the Term Premium," Working Papers 2021-07, Banco de México.
  12. Ben Zeev, Nadav, 2019. "Global credit supply shocks and exchange rate regimes," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 1-32.
  13. Breitenlechner, Max & Geiger, Martin & Scharler, Johann, 2022. "Bank liquidity and the propagation of uncertainty in the U.S," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PB).
  14. Andrea Ajello & Diego Silva & Travis Adams & Francisco Vazquez-Grande, 2023. "More than Words: Twitter Chatter and Financial Market Sentiment," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-034, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  15. Georgiadis, Georgios & Müller, Gernot J. & Schumann, Ben, 2024. "Global risk and the dollar," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
  16. Boeck, Maximilian & Feldkircher, Martin, 2021. "The Impact of Monetary Policy on Yield Curve Expectations," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 191(C), pages 887-901.
  17. López-Salido, David & Loria, Francesca, 2024. "Inflation at risk," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(S).
  18. Loipersberger, Florian & Matschke, Johannes, 2022. "Financial cycles and domestic policy choices," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
  19. CHANG, Shian & ARAI, Natsuki, 2025. "US Credit Spillovers to Small Open Economies : A Proxy-VAR Approach," Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 66(1), pages 46-60, June.
  20. Stéphane Lhuissier & Benoit Nguyen, 2021. "The Dynamic Effects of the ECB s Asset Purchases: a Survey-Based Identification," Working papers 806, Banque de France.
  21. Aydin Yakut, Dilan & Byrne, David & Goodhead, Robert, 2026. "What makes Monetary Policy More Powerful? A Big Data Approach," Research Technical Papers 09/RT/26, Central Bank of Ireland.
  22. Lukas Hoesch & Barbara Rossi & Tatevik Sekhposyan, 2023. "Has the Information Channel of Monetary Policy Disappeared? Revisiting the Empirical Evidence," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(3), pages 355-387, July.
  23. Fackler, James S. & McMillin, W. Douglas, 2020. "Nominal GDP versus price level targeting: An empirical evaluation," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
  24. Massimo Ferrari Minesso & Laura Lebastard & Helena Mezo, 2023. "Text-Based Recession Probabilities," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(2), pages 415-438, June.
  25. Carabarín Aguirre Mauricio & Peláez Gómez Carlos D., 2021. "Financial Frictions in Mexico: Evidence from the Credit Spread and its Components," Working Papers 2021-20, Banco de México.
  26. Gardner, Ben & Scotti, Chiara & Vega, Clara, 2022. "Words speak as loudly as actions: Central bank communication and the response of equity prices to macroeconomic announcements," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(2), pages 387-409.
  27. Thorsten Drautzburg & Grey Gordon & Pablo Guerrón-Quintana & Alexey Khazanov, 2026. "The Health Channel of Business Cycles," Working Papers 26-32, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  28. Bowen Fu & Chenghan Hou & Jan Pruser, 2025. "Assessing the Effects of Monetary Shocks on Macroeconomic Stars: A SMUC-IV Framework," Papers 2510.05802, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2025.
  29. Nadav Ben Zeev, 2019. "Identification of Sign-Dependency of Impulse Responses," Working Papers 1907, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Department of Economics.
  30. Guest, Paul M. & Wang, Mingzhu & Welte, Simon, 2026. "The effect of the cost of capital on private equity buyout performance," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
  31. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Fiedler, Salomon & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Groll, Dominik & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan, 2021. "Vermögenspreise, Zinseffekte und die Robustheit der öffentlichen Finanzen in Deutschland - eine Szenario-Analyse," Kieler Beiträge zur Wirtschaftspolitik 36, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  32. Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia, 2022. "Pandemic Priors," International Finance Discussion Papers 1352, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  33. Iwasaki, Yuto & Kubota, Hiroyuki & Muto, Ichiro & Shintani, Mototsugu, 2025. "Monetary policy, labor force participation, and wage rigidity," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
  34. Beutel, Johannes & Emter, Lorenz & Metiu, Norbert & Prieto, Esteban & Schüler, Yves, 2025. "The global financial cycle and macroeconomic tail risks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
  35. Artemova, Mariia, 2025. "An order-invariant score-driven dynamic factor model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 251(C).
  36. David A. Mascio & Frank J. Fabozzi & J. Kenton Zumwalt, 2021. "Market timing using combined forecasts and machine learning," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(1), pages 1-16, January.
  37. Capucine Nobletz, 2026. "The impact of natural disasters on US business credit markets: a comparative analysis of short-term and long-duration events," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 162(1), pages 313-350, February.
  38. Caggiano, Giovanni & Castelnuovo, Efrem & Delrio, Silvia & Kima, Richard, 2021. "Financial uncertainty and real activity: The good, the bad, and the ugly," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
  39. Ercolani, Valerio & Natoli, Filippo, 2020. "Forecasting US recessions: The role of economic uncertainty," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
  40. Breitenlechner, Max & Gründler, Daniel & Scharler, Johann, 2021. "Unconventional monetary policy announcements and information shocks in the U.S," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
  41. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Kuester, Keith & Müller, Gernot & Schmidt, Sebastian, 2021. "The Exchange Rate Insulation Puzzle," CEPR Discussion Papers 15689, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
  42. Horn, Carl-Wolfram & Fischer, Johannes J., 2021. "Does Monetary Policy Affect Mergers and Acquisitions?," VfS Annual Conference 2021 (Virtual Conference): Climate Economics 242445, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  43. Müller, Gernot & Georgiadis, Georgios & Schumann, Ben, 2023. "Dollar Trinity and the Global Financial Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 18427, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
  44. Ann Xing, Bingxin & Feunou, Bruno & Tédongap, Roméo, 2026. "Robust regularities in the heterogeneity of consumer price inflation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
  45. Michal Franta & Jan Libich, 2024. "Holding the economy by the tail: analysis of short- and long-run macroeconomic risks," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 66(4), pages 1443-1489, April.
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