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Updating the Recession Risk and the Excess Bond Premium

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Olli Palm'en, 2022. "Macroeconomic Effect of Uncertainty and Financial Shocks: a non-Gaussian VAR approach," Papers 2202.10834, arXiv.org.
  2. Breitenlechner, Max & Georgiadis, Georgios & Schumann, Ben, 2022. "What goes around comes around: How large are spillbacks from US monetary policy?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 45-60.
  3. Ercolani, Valerio & Natoli, Filippo, 2020. "Forecasting US recessions: The role of economic uncertainty," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
  4. Lukas Hoesch & Barbara Rossi & Tatevik Sekhposyan, 2023. "Has the Information Channel of Monetary Policy Disappeared? Revisiting the Empirical Evidence," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(3), pages 355-387, July.
  5. Fackler, James S. & McMillin, W. Douglas, 2020. "Nominal GDP versus price level targeting: An empirical evaluation," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
  6. Francesca Loria & Christian Matthes & Donghai Zhang, 2025. "Assessing Macroeconomic Tail Risk," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 135(665), pages 264-284.
  7. Massimo Ferrari Minesso & Laura Lebastard & Helena Mezo, 2023. "Text-Based Recession Probabilities," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(2), pages 415-438, June.
  8. Carabarín Aguirre Mauricio & Peláez Gómez Carlos D., 2021. "Financial Frictions in Mexico: Evidence from the Credit Spread and its Components," Working Papers 2021-20, Banco de México.
  9. Iwasaki, Yuto & Kubota, Hiroyuki & Muto, Ichiro & Shintani, Mototsugu, 2025. "Monetary policy, labor force participation, and wage rigidity," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
  10. Gardner, Ben & Scotti, Chiara & Vega, Clara, 2022. "Words speak as loudly as actions: Central bank communication and the response of equity prices to macroeconomic announcements," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(2), pages 387-409.
  11. Melina, Giovanni & Villa, Stefania, 2023. "Drivers of large recessions and monetary policy responses," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
  12. Michal Franta & Jan Libich, 2024. "Holding the economy by the tail: analysis of short- and long-run macroeconomic risks," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 66(4), pages 1443-1489, April.
  13. Daisuke Ikeda & Mayumi Ojima & Koji Takahashi, 2019. "Financial Interconnectedness, Amplification, and Cross-Border Activity," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 19-E-11, Bank of Japan.
  14. Nadav Ben Zeev, 2019. "Identification of Sign-Dependency of Impulse Responses," Working Papers 1907, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Department of Economics.
  15. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Fiedler, Salomon & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Groll, Dominik & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan, 2021. "Vermögenspreise, Zinseffekte und die Robustheit der öffentlichen Finanzen in Deutschland - eine Szenario-Analyse," Kieler Beiträge zur Wirtschaftspolitik 36, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
  16. Georgiadis, Georgios & Jarociński, Marek, 2023. "Global spillovers from multi-dimensional US monetary policy," Working Paper Series 2881, European Central Bank.
  17. Georgiadis, Georgios & Müller, Gernot J. & Schumann, Ben, 2024. "Global risk and the dollar," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
  18. Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia, 2022. "Pandemic Priors," International Finance Discussion Papers 1352, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  19. Georgios Georgiadis & Gernot J. Müller & Ben Schumann, 2023. "Dollar Trinity and the Global Financial Cycle," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2058, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  20. Giancarlo Corsetti & Keith Kuester & Gernot J. Müller & Sebastian Schmidt, 2021. "The Exchange Rate Insulation Puzzle," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 060, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
  21. Caggiano, Giovanni & Castelnuovo, Efrem & Delrio, Silvia & Kima, Richard, 2021. "Financial uncertainty and real activity: The good, the bad, and the ugly," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
  22. Michael B. Devereux & Charles Engel & Giovanni Lombardo, 2020. "Implementable Rules for International Monetary Policy Coordination," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 68(1), pages 108-162, March.
  23. Travis Adams & Andrea Ajello & Diego Silva & Francisco Vazquez-Grande, 2023. "More than Words: Twitter Chatter and Financial Market Sentiment," Papers 2305.16164, arXiv.org.
  24. David A. Mascio & Frank J. Fabozzi & J. Kenton Zumwalt, 2021. "Market timing using combined forecasts and machine learning," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(1), pages 1-16, January.
  25. Breitenlechner, Max & Scharler, Johann, 2021. "Monetary policy announcements and bank lending: Do banks’ refinancing markets matter?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
  26. Ibarra-Ramírez Raúl, 2021. "The Yield Curve as a Predictor of Economic Activity in Mexico: The Role of the Term Premium," Working Papers 2021-07, Banco de México.
  27. Ben Zeev, Nadav, 2019. "Global credit supply shocks and exchange rate regimes," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 1-32.
  28. Breitenlechner, Max & Geiger, Martin & Scharler, Johann, 2022. "Bank liquidity and the propagation of uncertainty in the U.S," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PB).
  29. Andrea Ajello & Diego Silva & Travis Adams & Francisco Vazquez-Grande, 2023. "More than Words: Twitter Chatter and Financial Market Sentiment," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-034, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  30. Breitenlechner, Max & Gründler, Daniel & Scharler, Johann, 2021. "Unconventional monetary policy announcements and information shocks in the U.S," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
  31. Horn, Carl-Wolfram & Fischer, Johannes J., 2021. "Does Monetary Policy Affect Mergers and Acquisitions?," VfS Annual Conference 2021 (Virtual Conference): Climate Economics 242445, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  32. Boeck, Maximilian & Feldkircher, Martin, 2021. "The Impact of Monetary Policy on Yield Curve Expectations," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 191(C), pages 887-901.
  33. López-Salido, David & Loria, Francesca, 2024. "Inflation at risk," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(S).
  34. Loipersberger, Florian & Matschke, Johannes, 2022. "Financial cycles and domestic policy choices," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
  35. CHANG, Shian & ARAI, Natsuki, 2025. "US Credit Spillovers to Small Open Economies : A Proxy-VAR Approach," Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 66(1), pages 46-60, June.
  36. Stéphane Lhuissier & Benoit Nguyen, 2021. "The Dynamic Effects of the ECB s Asset Purchases: a Survey-Based Identification," Working papers 806, Banque de France.
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