Updating the Recession Risk and the Excess Bond Premium
Citations
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Cited by:
- Michael B. Devereux & Charles Engel & Giovanni Lombardo, 2020. "Implementable Rules for International Monetary Policy Coordination," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 68(1), pages 108-162, March.
- Travis Adams & Andrea Ajello & Diego Silva & Francisco Vazquez-Grande, 2023. "More than Words: Twitter Chatter and Financial Market Sentiment," Papers 2305.16164, arXiv.org.
- Artemova, Mariia, 2025. "An order-invariant score-driven dynamic factor model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 251(C).
- David A. Mascio & Frank J. Fabozzi & J. Kenton Zumwalt, 2021. "Market timing using combined forecasts and machine learning," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(1), pages 1-16, January.
- Olli Palm'en, 2022. "Macroeconomic Effect of Uncertainty and Financial Shocks: a non-Gaussian VAR approach," Papers 2202.10834, arXiv.org.
- Lukas Hoesch & Barbara Rossi & Tatevik Sekhposyan, 2023.
"Has the Information Channel of Monetary Policy Disappeared? Revisiting the Empirical Evidence,"
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(3), pages 355-387, July.
- Lukas Hoesch & Barbara Rossi & Tatevik Sekhposyan, 2020. "Has the Information Channel of Monetary Policy Disappeared? Revisiting the Empirical Evidence," Working Paper Series 2020-08, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Lukas Hoesch & Tatevik Sekhposyan & Barbara Rossi, 2020. "Has the Information Channel of Monetary Policy Disappeared? Revisiting the Empirical Evidence," Working Papers 1158, Barcelona School of Economics.
- Lukas Hoesch & Barbara Rossi & Tatevik Sekhposyan, 2020. "Has the information channel of monetary policy disappeared? Revisiting the empirical evidence," Economics Working Papers 1701, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jul 2021.
- Rossi, Barbara & Sekhposyan, Tatevik & Hoesch, Lukas, 2020. "Has the Information Channel of Monetary Policy Disappeared? Revisiting the Empirical Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 14456, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Breitenlechner, Max & Scharler, Johann, 2021. "Monetary policy announcements and bank lending: Do banks’ refinancing markets matter?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
- Francesca Loria & Christian Matthes & Donghai Zhang, 2025.
"Assessing Macroeconomic Tail Risk,"
The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 135(665), pages 264-284.
- Francesca Loria & Christian Matthes & Donghai Zhang, 2019. "Assessing Macroeconomic Tail Risk," Working Paper 19-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
- Francesca Loria & Christian Matthes & Donghai Zhang, 2019. "Assessing Macroeconomic Tail Risk," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-026, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Fackler, James S. & McMillin, W. Douglas, 2020.
"Nominal GDP versus price level targeting: An empirical evaluation,"
Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
- James S. Fackler & W. Douglas McMillin, 2018. "Nominal GDP versus Price Level Targeting: An Empirical Evaluation," Departmental Working Papers 2018-05, Department of Economics, Louisiana State University.
- Massimo Ferrari Minesso & Laura Lebastard & Helena Mezo, 2023.
"Text-Based Recession Probabilities,"
IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(2), pages 415-438, June.
- Le Mezo, Helena & Ferrari Minesso, Massimo, 2021. "Text-based recession probabilities," Working Paper Series 2516, European Central Bank.
- Ibarra-Ramírez Raúl, 2021. "The Yield Curve as a Predictor of Economic Activity in Mexico: The Role of the Term Premium," Working Papers 2021-07, Banco de México.
- Breitenlechner, Max & Georgiadis, Georgios & Schumann, Ben, 2022.
"What goes around comes around: How large are spillbacks from US monetary policy?,"
Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 45-60.
- Breitenlechner, Max & Georgiadis, Georgios & Schumann, Ben, 2021. "What goes around comes around: How large are spillbacks from US monetary policy?," Working Paper Series 2613, European Central Bank.
- Max Breitenlechner & Georgios Georgiadis & Ben Schumann, 2021. "What goes around comes around: How large are spillbacks from US monetary policy?," Working Papers 2021-05, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, Universität Innsbruck.
- Max Breitenlechner & Georgios Georgiadis & Ben Schumann, 2021. "What goes around comes around: How large are spillbacks from US monetary policy?," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2021_003, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
- Carabarín Aguirre Mauricio & Peláez Gómez Carlos D., 2021. "Financial Frictions in Mexico: Evidence from the Credit Spread and its Components," Working Papers 2021-20, Banco de México.
- Gardner, Ben & Scotti, Chiara & Vega, Clara, 2022.
"Words speak as loudly as actions: Central bank communication and the response of equity prices to macroeconomic announcements,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(2), pages 387-409.
- Benjamin Gardner & Chiara Scotti & Clara Vega, 2021. "Words Speak as Loudly as Actions: Central Bank Communication and the Response of Equity Prices to Macroeconomic Announcements," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-074, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Melina, Giovanni & Villa, Stefania, 2023.
"Drivers of large recessions and monetary policy responses,"
Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
- Giovanni Melina & Stefania Villa, 2023. "Drivers of Large Recessions and Monetary Policy Responses," CESifo Working Paper Series 10590, CESifo.
- Giovanni Melina & Stefania Villa, 2023. "Drivers of large recessions and monetary policy responses," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1425, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Ben Zeev, Nadav, 2019. "Global credit supply shocks and exchange rate regimes," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 1-32.
- Breitenlechner, Max & Geiger, Martin & Scharler, Johann, 2022. "Bank liquidity and the propagation of uncertainty in the U.S," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PB).
- Caggiano, Giovanni & Castelnuovo, Efrem & Delrio, Silvia & Kima, Richard, 2021.
"Financial uncertainty and real activity: The good, the bad, and the ugly,"
European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
- Giovanni Caggiano & Efrem Castelnuovo & Richard Kima & Silvia Delrio, 2020. "Financial Uncertainty and Real Activity: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly," CAMA Working Papers 2020-67, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Giovanni Caggiano & Efrem Castelnuovo & Silvia Delrio & Richard Kima, 2020. "Financial Uncertainty and Real Activity: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0255, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
- Giovanni Caggiano & Efrem Castelnuovo & Silvia Delrio & Richard Kima, 2020. "Financial Uncertainty and Real Activity: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly," CESifo Working Paper Series 8426, CESifo.
- Ercolani, Valerio & Natoli, Filippo, 2020.
"Forecasting US recessions: The role of economic uncertainty,"
Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
- Valerio Ercolani & Filippo Natoli, 2020. "Forecasting US recessions: the role of economic uncertainty," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1299, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Andrea Ajello & Diego Silva & Travis Adams & Francisco Vazquez-Grande, 2023. "More than Words: Twitter Chatter and Financial Market Sentiment," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-034, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Georgiadis, Georgios & Müller, Gernot J. & Schumann, Ben, 2024.
"Global risk and the dollar,"
Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
- Müller, Gernot & Georgiadis, Georgios & Schumann, Ben, 2021. "Global Risk and the Dollar," CEPR Discussion Papers 16245, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Georgiadis, Georgios & Müller, Gernot J. & Schumann, Ben, 2021. "Global risk and the dollar," Working Paper Series 2628, European Central Bank.
- Georgios Georgiadis & Gernot J. Müller & Ben Schumann, 2023. "Global Risk and the Dollar," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2057, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Daisuke Ikeda & Mayumi Ojima & Koji Takahashi, 2019. "Financial Interconnectedness, Amplification, and Cross-Border Activity," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 19-E-11, Bank of Japan.
- Bowen Fu & Chenghan Hou & Jan Pruser, 2025. "Assessing the Effects of Monetary Shocks on Macroeconomic Stars: A SMUC-IV Framework," Papers 2510.05802, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2025.
- Breitenlechner, Max & Gründler, Daniel & Scharler, Johann, 2021. "Unconventional monetary policy announcements and information shocks in the U.S," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
- Nadav Ben Zeev, 2019. "Identification of Sign-Dependency of Impulse Responses," Working Papers 1907, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Department of Economics.
- Kuester, Keith & Corsetti, Giancarlo & Müller, Gernot & Schmidt, Sebastian, 2021.
"The Exchange Rate Insulation Puzzle,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
15689, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Corsetti, Giancarlo & Kuester, Keith & Müller, Gernot J. & Schmidt, Sebastian, 2021. "The exchange rate insulation puzzle," Working Paper Series 2630, European Central Bank.
- Corsetti, G. & Kuester, K. & Müller, G. J. & Schmidt, S., 2021. "The Exchange Rate Insulation Puzzle," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2109, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Giancarlo Corsetti & Keith Kuester & Gernot J. Müller & Sebastian Schmidt, 2021. "The Exchange Rate Insulation Puzzle," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 060, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
- Horn, Carl-Wolfram & Fischer, Johannes J., 2021. "Does Monetary Policy Affect Mergers and Acquisitions?," VfS Annual Conference 2021 (Virtual Conference): Climate Economics 242445, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
- Boeck, Maximilian & Feldkircher, Martin, 2021. "The Impact of Monetary Policy on Yield Curve Expectations," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 191(C), pages 887-901.
- Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Fiedler, Salomon & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Groll, Dominik & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan, 2021. "Vermögenspreise, Zinseffekte und die Robustheit der öffentlichen Finanzen in Deutschland - eine Szenario-Analyse," Kieler Beiträge zur Wirtschaftspolitik 36, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
- Georgiadis, Georgios & Jarociński, Marek, 2025.
"Global spillovers from multi-dimensional US monetary policy,"
Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
- Georgiadis, Georgios & Jarociński, Marek, 2023. "Global spillovers from multi-dimensional US monetary policy," Working Paper Series 2881, European Central Bank.
- Müller, Gernot & Georgiadis, Georgios & Schumann, Ben, 2023.
"Dollar Trinity and the Global Financial Cycle,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
18427, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Georgios Georgiadis & Gernot J. Müller & Ben Schumann, 2023. "Dollar Trinity and the Global Financial Cycle," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2058, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia, 2022. "Pandemic Priors," International Finance Discussion Papers 1352, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Iwasaki, Yuto & Kubota, Hiroyuki & Muto, Ichiro & Shintani, Mototsugu, 2025.
"Monetary policy, labor force participation, and wage rigidity,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
- Hiroyuki Kubota & Ichiro Muto & Mototsugu Shintani, 2022. "Monetary Policy, Labor Force Participation, and Wage Rigidity," IMES Discussion Paper Series 22-E-17, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
- López-Salido, David & Loria, Francesca, 2024. "Inflation at risk," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(S).
- Beutel, Johannes & Emter, Lorenz & Metiu, Norbert & Prieto, Esteban & Schüler, Yves, 2025.
"The global financial cycle and macroeconomic tail risks,"
Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
- Beutel, Johannes & Emter, Lorenz & Metiu, Norbert & Prieto, Esteban & Schüler, Yves, 2022. "The global financial cycle and macroeconomic tail risks," Discussion Papers 43/2022, Deutsche Bundesbank.
- Loipersberger, Florian & Matschke, Johannes, 2022. "Financial cycles and domestic policy choices," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
- CHANG, Shian & ARAI, Natsuki, 2025. "US Credit Spillovers to Small Open Economies : A Proxy-VAR Approach," Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 66(1), pages 46-60, June.
- Michal Franta & Jan Libich, 2024.
"Holding the economy by the tail: analysis of short- and long-run macroeconomic risks,"
Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 66(4), pages 1443-1489, April.
- Michal Franta & Jan Libich, 2021. "Holding the Economy by the Tail: Analysis of Short- and Long-run Macroeconomic Risks," Working Papers 2021/3, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
- Stéphane Lhuissier & Benoit Nguyen, 2021. "The Dynamic Effects of the ECB s Asset Purchases: a Survey-Based Identification," Working papers 806, Banque de France.
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