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Time-varying geopolitical risk and oil prices

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  1. Li, Sufang & Tu, Dalun & Zeng, Yan & Gong, Chenggang & Yuan, Di, 2022. "Does geopolitical risk matter in crude oil and stock markets? Evidence from disaggregated data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
  2. He, Zhifang & Sun, Hao, 2024. "The time-varying and asymmetric impacts of oil price shocks on geopolitical risk," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 942-957.
  3. Ren, Xiaohang & An, Yaning & Jin, Chenglu, 2023. "The asymmetric effect of geopolitical risk on China's crude oil prices: New evidence from a QARDL approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
  4. Mollick, André Varella, 2025. "Risk, uncertainty, world business cycles, and the U.S. stock-oil relationship," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
  5. António Afonso & José Alves & João Jalles & Sofia Monteiro, 2026. "The Pressure Is on: How Geopolitical Tensions Impact Institutional Fiscal and External Stability Responses," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 73(3), July.
  6. Choi, Sangyup & Havel, Jiri, 2025. "Geopolitical risk and U.S. foreign portfolio investment: A tale of advanced and emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
  7. Shao, Liuguo & Cao, Saisha & Zhang, Hua, 2024. "The impact of geopolitical risk on strategic emerging minerals prices: Evidence from MODWT-based Granger causality test," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
  8. Laubsch, Joshua & Smales, Lee A. & Vo, Duc, 2024. "The influence of uncertainty on commodity futures returns and trading behaviour," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
  9. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Olasehinde-Williams, Godwin & Özkan, Oktay, 2024. "Is geopolitical oil price uncertainty forcing the world to use energy more efficiently? Evidence from advanced statistical methods," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 908-919.
  10. Khurshid, Adnan & Khan, Khalid & Rauf, Abdur & Cifuentes-Faura, Javier, 2024. "Effect of geopolitical risk on resources prices in the global and Russian-Ukrainian context: A novel Bayesian structural model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
  11. Gu, Qinen & Li, Shaofang & Tian, Sihua & Wang, Yuyouting, 2023. "Climate, geopolitical, and energy market risk interconnectedness: Evidence from a new climate risk index," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PB).
  12. Yang, Tianle & Dong, Qingyuan & Du, Min & Du, Qunyang, 2023. "Geopolitical risks, oil price shocks and inflation: Evidence from a TVP–SV–VAR approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PB).
  13. Ding, Shusheng & Wang, Kaihao & Cui, Tianxiang & Du, Min, 2023. "The time-varying impact of geopolitical risk on natural resource prices: The post-COVID era evidence," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(PB).
  14. Liu, Ling & Shahrour, Mohamad H. & Wojewodzki, Michal & Rohani, Alireza, 2025. "Decoding energy market turbulence: A TVP-VAR connectedness analysis of climate policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk shocks," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
  15. Wang, Xinghua & Lee, Zhengzheng & Wu, Shuang & Qin, Meng, 2023. "Exploring the vital role of geopolitics in the oil market: The case of Russia," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
  16. Li, Beibei & Chen, Yiming & Wu, Haipeng & Mao, Xuefeng, 2025. "Macroeconomics, geopolitical risk, and resource commodity price bubbles," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
  17. Jin, Yi & Zhao, Hang & Bu, Lin & Zhang, Dayong, 2023. "Geopolitical risk, climate risk and energy markets: A dynamic spillover analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
  18. Huang, Yin-Siang, 2025. "When geopolitical risks hit the supply chain: Impacts on credit default swap market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
  19. Jana, Rabin K., 2024. "Are metaverse coins more prone to geopolitical risk than traditional crypto assets?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(PB), pages 436-447.
  20. Feng, Chaonan & Han, Liyan & Vigne, Samuel & Xu, Yang, 2023. "Geopolitical risk and the dynamics of international capital flows," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
  21. Lai, Fujun & Xiong, Deping & Zhu, Sha & Li, Yunzhong & Tan, Yanzhi, 2023. "Will geopolitical risks only inhibit corporate investment? Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
  22. Szafranek, Karol & Szafrański, Grzegorz & Leszczyńska-Paczesna, Agnieszka, 2024. "Inflation returns. Revisiting the role of external and domestic shocks with Bayesian structural VAR," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(PA), pages 789-810.
  23. Adeniyi Adeosun, Opeoluwa & Anagreh, Suhaib & Tabash, Mosab I. & Adedokun, Adebayo, 2023. "Revisiting the connectedness between oil prices and uncertainty indicators in BRICS countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(PA).
  24. Zhang, Weiqian & Li, Songsong & Romanova, Valentina & Xu, Nan, 2025. "Dynamic spillovers between Chinese oil futures market and global financial markets under geopolitical risks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 326(C).
  25. Wang, Kai-Hua & Wen, Cui-Ping & Liu, Hong-Wen & Liu, Lu, 2023. "Promotion or hindrance? Exploring the bidirectional causality between geopolitical risk and green bonds from an energy perspective," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
  26. Faheem Aslam & Paulo Ferreira & Haider Ali & Ana Ercília José, 2022. "Application of Multifractal Analysis in Estimating the Reaction of Energy Markets to Geopolitical Acts and Threats," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-23, May.
  27. Su, Chi-Wei & Yang, Shengyao & Dumitrescu Peculea, Adelina & Ioana Biţoiu, Teodora & Qin, Meng, 2024. "Energy imports in turbulent eras: Evidence from China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 306(C).
  28. Ren, Xiaohang & Fu, Chenjia & Jin, Yi, 2025. "Climate risk perception and oil financialization in China: Evidence from a time-varying Granger model," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
  29. Muhammad, Sulaman & Hoffmann, Christin & Müsgens, Felix, 2025. "Assessing energy security risks: Implications for household electricity prices in the EU," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 327(C).
  30. Bei Zhang & Xiaoqing Ai & Xingming Fang & Shi Chen, 2022. "The Transmission Mechanisms and Impacts of Oil Price Fluctuations: Evidence from DSGE Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(16), pages 1-20, August.
  31. Yan Ding & Yue Liu & Pierre Failler, 2022. "The Impact of Uncertainties on Crude Oil Prices: Based on a Quantile-on-Quantile Method," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-35, May.
  32. Nadia Basty & Mouna Abidly, 2025. "Return and volatility interconnectedness between metaverse tokens, commodities, clean and green energy," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 59(6), pages 5121-5148, December.
  33. Shekhar Aiyar & Franziska Ohnsorge, 2024. "Geoeconomic Fragmentation and "Connector" Countries," CAMA Working Papers 2024-53, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  34. Dang, Tam Hoang Nhat & Balli, Faruk & Balli, Hatice Ozer & Qiu, Mei & Nguyen, Hannah, 2026. "The global geopolitical-energy uncertainty index and total factor productivity: New evidence from firm-level analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
  35. Zhao, Jing, 2023. "Time-varying impact of geopolitical risk on natural resources prices: Evidence from the hybrid TVP-VAR model with large system," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
  36. Gong, Xu & Sun, Yi & Du, Zhili, 2022. "Geopolitical risk and China's oil security," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
  37. Qiu, Ziang & Zhang, Xibin & Zhang, Yang, 2025. "Empowering energy security: The impact of geopolitical risks on green total factor energy efficiency," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
  38. Hong, Yanran & Guo, Xiaozhu & Zhao, Chunlan, 2025. "New paths of the time-varying Granger-causality test under extreme shocks: An analysis of geopolitical risk and crude oil markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(PB).
  39. Gong, Xiao-Li & Jia, Kai-Wen & Xiong, Xiong, 2025. "How major geopolitical events affect tail risk contagion in global crude oil markets —evidence from the Russia-Ukraine conflict," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
  40. Cai, Yifei & Li, Xiangdong & Zhang, Yahua, 2024. "Oil market responses to Sino–European political relation shock: Insights after China's world trade organization accession," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
  41. Muğaloğlu, Erhan & Kuşkaya, Sevda & Aldieri, Luigi & Alnour, Mohammed & Hoque, Mohammad Enamul & Magazzino, Cosimo & Bilgili, Faik, 2023. "Dynamic regime differences in the market behavior of primary natural resources in response to geopolitical risk and economic policy uncertainty," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 87(PB).
  42. Zhang, Zhenhua & Zhao, Mingcheng & Zhang, Xinyu & Huang, Zhaohan & Feng, Yanchao, 2025. "What is the causal relationship among geopolitical risk, financial development, and energy transition ? Evidence from 25 OECD countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 104(PA).
  43. Dong, Qingyuan & Du, Qunyang & Min Du, Anna, 2024. "Interplay between oil prices, country risks, and stock returns in the context of global conflict: A PVAR approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(PB).
  44. Niu, Zibo & Wang, Chenlu & Zhang, Hongwei, 2023. "Forecasting stock market volatility with various geopolitical risks categories: New evidence from machine learning models," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
  45. Li, Xin & Umar, Muhammad & Zhu, Cun-Bin & Oprean-Stan, Camelia, 2023. "Can geopolitical risk stably predict crude oil prices? A multi-dimensional perspective," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).
  46. Elsayed, Ahmed H. & Hoque, Mohammad Enamul & Billah, Mabruk, 2025. "Multilayer connectedness across geopolitical risks, clean, and dirty energy markets: The role of global uncertainty factors and climate surprise," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
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