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Market timing ability and volatility implied in investment newsletters' asset allocation recommendations

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Nicolosi, Gina & Peng, Liang & Zhu, Ning, 2009. "Do individual investors learn from their trading experience?," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 317-336, May.
  2. Tezel, Ahmet & McManus, Ginette, 2001. "Evaluating a stock market timing strategy: the case of RTE Asset Management," Financial Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 10(1-4), pages 173-186.
  3. Cao, Charles & Simin, Timothy T. & Wang, Ying, 2013. "Do mutual fund managers time market liquidity?," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 279-307.
  4. Kee‐Hong Bae & Junesuh Yi, 2008. "The Impact of the Short‐Short Rule Repeal on the Timing Ability of Mutual Funds," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(7‐8), pages 969-997, September.
  5. Evan W. Anderson & Eric Ghysels & Jennifer L. Juergens, 2005. "Do Heterogeneous Beliefs Matter for Asset Pricing?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(3), pages 875-924.
  6. Goetzmann, William N. & Massa, Massimo, 2002. "Daily Momentum and Contrarian Behavior of Index Fund Investors," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 37(3), pages 375-389, September.
  7. Subrata Roy, 2016. "Another Look in Conditioning Alphas on Economic Information: Indian Evidence," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 17(1), pages 191-213, February.
  8. Chance, Don M. & Hemler, Michael L., 2001. "The performance of professional market timers: daily evidence from executed strategies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 377-411, November.
  9. Luo, Jiawen & Cepni, Oguzhan & Demirer, Riza & Gupta, Rangan, 2025. "Forecasting multivariate volatilities with exogenous predictors: An application to industry diversification strategies," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
  10. William Goetzmann & Jonathan Ingersoll & Zoran Ivkovich, 1998. "Monthly Measurement of Daily Timers," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm88, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Oct 2000.
  11. Esparcia, Carlos & Díaz, Antonio, 2024. "The football world upside down: Traditional equities as an alternative for the new fan tokens? A portfolio optimization study," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
  12. Patrycja Chodnicka & Piotr Jaworski, 2012. "Analyzing the market - mapping quality analysis of WIG20 by the Exchange Traded Fund, the first fun on the Polish market (Sledzac parkiet - analiza jakosci odwzorowania indeksu WIG20 przez pierwszy na," Problemy Zarzadzania, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management, vol. 10(39), pages 198-205.
  13. Joseph D. Prusa & Ryan T. Sagul & Taghi M. Khoshgoftaar, 2019. "Extracting Knowledge from Technical Reports for the Valuation of West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Futures," Information Systems Frontiers, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 109-123, February.
  14. Zhengnan Yin & Niall O’Sullivan & Meadhbh Sherman, 2024. "The market timing ability of bond mutual funds," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 25(5), pages 508-527, September.
  15. García, Diego & Urošević, Branko, 2013. "Noise and aggregation of information in large markets," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 526-549.
  16. Friesen, Geoffrey C. & Sapp, Travis R.A., 2007. "Mutual fund flows and investor returns: An empirical examination of fund investor timing ability," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(9), pages 2796-2816, September.
  17. Gene Amromin & Steven A. Sharpe, 2005. "From the horse’s mouth: gauging conditional expected stock returns from investor surveys," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  18. John Ammer & John Rogers & Gang Wang & Yang Yu, 2020. "Monetary Policy Expectations, Fund Managers, and Fund Returns: Evidence from China," International Finance Discussion Papers 1285, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  19. Brown, Gregory W. & Cliff, Michael T., 2004. "Investor sentiment and the near-term stock market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 1-27, January.
  20. Gina Nicolosi & Liang Peng & Ning Zhu, 2003. "Do Individual Investors Learn from Their Trading Experience?," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm439, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Sep 2009.
  21. Keith Cuthbertson & Dirk Nitzsche & Niall O'Sullivan, 2010. "Mutual Fund Performance: Measurement and Evidence," Financial Markets, Institutions & Instruments, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 19(2), pages 95-187, May.
  22. Jing-Zhi Huang & Ying Wang, 2014. "Timing Ability of Government Bond Fund Managers: Evidence from Portfolio Holdings," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(8), pages 2091-2109, August.
  23. Bange, Mary M. & Miller, Thomas Jr., 2004. "Return momentum and global portfolio allocations," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 429-459, September.
  24. Massimo Massa & William Goetzmann, 2000. "Daily Momentum And Contrarian Behavior Of Index Fund Investors," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm134, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Apr 2001.
  25. Marcin Kacperczyk & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh & Laura Veldkamp, 2014. "Time-Varying Fund Manager Skill," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(4), pages 1455-1484, August.
  26. Guo, Xiaozhu & Huang, Dengshi & Li, Xiafei & Liang, Chao, 2023. "Are categorical EPU indices predictable for carbon futures volatility? Evidence from the machine learning method," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 672-693.
  27. John R. Graham & Campbell R. Harvey, 2001. "Expectations of Equity Risk Premia, Volatility and Asymmetry from a Corporate Finance Perspective," NBER Working Papers 8678, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  28. Robin Greenwood & Andrei Shleifer, 2014. "Expectations of Returns and Expected Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(3), pages 714-746.
  29. Grandmont-Gariboldi, Nicole & Soenen, Luc, 2000. "On the significance of the incremental returns from hedging international portfolios," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 271-286, November.
  30. Lehmann, Bruce & Timmermann, Allan, 2007. "Performance measurement and evaluation," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24505, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  31. Becker, Connie & Ferson, Wayne & Myers, David H. & Schill, Michael J., 1999. "Conditional market timing with benchmark investors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 119-148, April.
  32. Jiang, George J. & Yao, Tong & Yu, Tong, 2007. "Do mutual funds time the market? Evidence from portfolio holdings," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(3), pages 724-758, December.
  33. Clements, A. & Silvennoinen, A., 2013. "Volatility timing: How best to forecast portfolio exposures," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 108-115.
  34. Massimiliano Affinito & Raffaele Santioni, 2021. "When the panic broke out: COVID-19 and investment funds' portfolio rebalancing around the world," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1342, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  35. Choi, James J. & Laibson, David & Metrick, Andrew, 2002. "How does the Internet affect trading? Evidence from investor behavior in 401(k) plans," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 397-421, June.
  36. James E. Smith, 2004. "Risk Sharing, Fiduciary Duty, and Corporate Risk Attitudes," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 1(2), pages 114-127, June.
  37. Martin Hess, 2006. "Timing and diversification: A state-dependent asset allocation approach," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(3), pages 189-204.
  38. Robert J. Shiller, 1999. "Measuring Bubble Expectations and Investor Confidence," NBER Working Papers 7008, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  39. Chung, Richard & Kryzanowski, Lawrence, 2000. "Market timing using strategists' and analysts' forecasts of S&P 500 earnings per share," Financial Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 125-144, 00.
  40. Ferson, Wayne & Khang, Kenneth, 2002. "Conditional performance measurement using portfolio weights: evidence for pension funds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 249-282, August.
  41. Danny Yeung, 2012. "The Impact of Institutional Ownership: A Study of the Australian Equity Market," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 11, July-Dece.
  42. Korteweg, Arthur & Sorensen, Morten, 2017. "Skill and luck in private equity performance," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(3), pages 535-562.
  43. Chan Kyu Paik & Jinhee Choi & Ivan Ureta Vaquero, 2024. "Algorithm-Based Low-Frequency Trading Using a Stochastic Oscillator and William%R: A Case Study on the U.S. and Korean Indices," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 17(3), pages 1-18, February.
  44. Patton, Andrew, 2010. "On the Dynamics of Hedge Fund Risk Exposures," CEPR Discussion Papers 7780, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  45. Lee, Wayne Y. & Jiang, Christine X. & Indro, Daniel C., 2002. "Stock market volatility, excess returns, and the role of investor sentiment," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(12), pages 2277-2299.
  46. William N. Goetzmann & Massimo Massa, 2003. "Index Funds and Stock Market Growth," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 76(1), pages 1-28, January.
  47. Andrew J. Patton & Tarun Ramadorai, 2013. "On the High-Frequency Dynamics of Hedge Fund Risk Exposures," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(2), pages 597-635, April.
  48. J. C. Matallin & A. Fernandez-Izquierdo, 2003. "Passive timing effect in portfolio management," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(17), pages 1829-1837.
  49. Hachmi Ben Ameur & Fredj Jawadi & Abdoulkarim Idi Cheffou & Wael Louhichi, 2018. "Measurement errors in stock markets," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 262(2), pages 287-306, March.
  50. Yin, Zhengnan & O’Sullivan, Niall & Sherman, Meadhbh, 2024. "The liquidity timing ability of mutual funds," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
  51. Yingshan Chen & Min Dai & Luis Goncalves-Pinto & Jing Xu & Cheng Yan, 2021. "Incomplete Information and the Liquidity Premium Puzzle," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(9), pages 5703-5729, September.
  52. Chia-Lin Chang & Jukka Ilomäki & Hannu Laurila & Michael McAleer, 2018. "Market Timing with Moving Averages for Fossil Fuel and Renewable Energy Stocks," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2018-24, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
  53. Jiang, Wei, 2003. "A nonparametric test of market timing," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 399-425, September.
  54. Changyun Wang, 2003. "The behavior and performance of major types of futures traders," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(1), pages 1-31, January.
  55. Rompotis, Gerasimos G., 2011. "Testing weak-form efficiency of exchange traded funds market," MPRA Paper 36020, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  56. Pankaj Topiwala, 2023. "Surviving Black Swans II: Timing the 2020–2022 Roller Coaster," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 16(2), pages 1-26, February.
  57. Connie Becker & Wayne Ferson & David Myers & Michael Schill, 1998. "Conditional Market Timing with Benchmark Investors," NBER Working Papers 6434, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  58. Agarwal, Vikas & Ruenzi, Stefan & Weigert, Florian, 2017. "Tail risk in hedge funds: A unique view from portfolio holdings," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(3), pages 610-636.
  59. Charles P. Thomas & Francis E. Warnock & Jon Wongswan, 2004. "The Performance of International Equity Portfolios," International Finance Discussion Papers 817, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  60. Keith Pilbeam & Hamish Preston, 2019. "An Empirical Investigation of the Performance of Japanese Mutual Funds: Skill or Luck?," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-16, January.
  61. Wagner, Moritz & Margaritis, Dimitris, 2017. "All about fun(ds) in emerging markets? The case of equity mutual funds," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 62-78.
  62. Giambona, Erasmo & Golec, Joseph, 2009. "Mutual fund volatility timing and management fees," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 589-599, April.
  63. Linh Tran Dieu, 2015. "A Comparison of Bank and Non-bank Funds in the French Market," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 47(3), pages 273-294, June.
  64. Marina Balboa & J. Carlos Gómez‐Sala & Germán López‐Espinosa, 2009. "The Value of Adjusting the Bias in Recommendations: International Evidence," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 15(1), pages 208-230, January.
  65. Russell Lundholm & Rafael Rogo, 2020. "Do excessively volatile forecasts impact investors?," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 25(2), pages 636-671, June.
  66. Wayne Ferson & Kenneth Khang, 2002. "Conditional Performance Measurement Using Portfolio Weights: Evidence for Pension Funds," NBER Working Papers 8790, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  67. Gene Amromin & Steven A. Sharpe, 2008. "Expectations of risk and return among household investors: Are their Sharpe ratios countercyclical?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-17, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  68. Sergey Iskoz & Jiang Wang, 2003. "How to Tell if a Money Manager Knows More?," NBER Working Papers 9791, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  69. John Ammer & John Rogers & Gang Wang & Yang Yu, 2023. "Chinese Asset Managers’ Monetary Policy Forecasts and Fund Performance," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(1), pages 598-616, January.
  70. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.
  71. Bangassa, Kenbata & Su, Chen & Joseph, Nathan L., 2012. "Selectivity and timing performance of UK investment trusts," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 1149-1175.
  72. Pradosh Simlai, 2012. "Endogenous Information, Risk Characterization, and the Predictability of Average Stock Returns," Brazilian Review of Finance, Brazilian Society of Finance, vol. 10(3), pages 291-315.
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