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The value of statistical forecasts in the UK association football betting market

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. David Johnstone, 2007. "Economic Darwinism: Who has the Best Probabilities?," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 62(1), pages 47-96, February.
  2. J Reade & C Singleton & L Vaughan Williams, 2020. "Betting Markets for English Premier League Results and Scorelines: Evaluating a Simple Forecasting Model," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 25(1), pages 87-106, March.
  3. Luca De Angelis & J. James Reade, 2022. "Home advantage and mispricing in indoor sports’ ghost games: the case of European basketball," Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2022-01, Department of Economics, University of Reading.
  4. Stekler, H.O. & Sendor, David & Verlander, Richard, 2010. "Issues in sports forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 606-621, July.
    • Herman O. Stekler & David Sendor & Richard Verlander, 2009. "Issues in Sports Forecasting," Working Papers 2009-002, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
  5. Goddard, John, 2005. "Regression models for forecasting goals and match results in association football," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 331-340.
  6. Egon Franck & Erwin Verbeek & Stephan Nüesch, 2013. "Inter-market Arbitrage in Betting," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 80(318), pages 300-325, April.
  7. Vaughan Williams, Leighton & Stekler, Herman O., 2010. "Sports forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 445-447, July.
    • Herman O. Stekler, 2007. "Sports Forecasting," Working Papers 2007-001, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting, revised Jan 2007.
  8. Martin Spann & Bernd Skiera, 2009. "Sports forecasting: a comparison of the forecast accuracy of prediction markets, betting odds and tipsters," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(1), pages 55-72.
  9. Constantinou Anthony Costa & Fenton Norman Elliott, 2012. "Solving the Problem of Inadequate Scoring Rules for Assessing Probabilistic Football Forecast Models," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 1-14, March.
  10. J. James Reade & Carl Singleton & Alasdair Brown, 2021. "Evaluating strange forecasts: The curious case of football match scorelines," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 68(2), pages 261-285, May.
  11. Gross, Johannes & Rebeggiani, Luca, 2018. "Chance or Ability? The Efficiency of the Football Betting Market Revisited," MPRA Paper 87230, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  12. Wheatcroft, Edward, 2020. "A profitable model for predicting the over/under market in football," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 103712, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  13. Andrei Shynkevich, 2022. "Informational efficiency of football transfer market," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 42(2), pages 1032-1039.
  14. O'Leary, Daniel E., 2017. "Crowd performance in prediction of the World Cup 2014," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 260(2), pages 715-724.
  15. Song, ChiUng & Boulier, Bryan L. & Stekler, Herman O., 2007. "The comparative accuracy of judgmental and model forecasts of American football games," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 405-413.
  16. Alexis Direr, 2013. "Are betting markets efficient? Evidence from European Football Championships," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(3), pages 343-356, January.
  17. Egon Franck & Erwin Verbeek & Stephan Nuesch, 2009. "Inter- market Arbitrage in Sports Betting," NCER Working Paper Series 48, National Centre for Econometric Research.
  18. Bernardo, Giovanni & Ruberti, Massimo & Verona, Roberto, 2015. "Testing semi-strong efficiency in a fixed odds betting market: Evidence from principal European football leagues," MPRA Paper 66414, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  19. Adrian R. Bell & Chris Brooks & David Matthews & Charles Sutcliffe, 2012. "Over the moon or sick as a parrot? The effects of football results on a club's share price," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(26), pages 3435-3452, September.
  20. Bernardo, Giovanni & Ruberti, Massimo & Verona, Roberto, 2019. "Semi-strong inefficiency in the fixed odds betting market: Underestimating the positive impact of head coach replacement in the main European soccer leagues," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 239-246.
  21. Angelini, Giovanni & De Angelis, Luca, 2019. "Efficiency of online football betting markets," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 712-721.
  22. Peter Dawson & Stephen Dobson & John Goddard & John Wilson, 2007. "Are football referees really biased and inconsistent?: evidence on the incidence of disciplinary sanction in the English Premier League," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 170(1), pages 231-250, January.
  23. McHale, Ian & Morton, Alex, 2011. "A Bradley-Terry type model for forecasting tennis match results," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 619-630.
  24. Franck, Egon & Verbeek, Erwin & Nüesch, Stephan, 2010. "Prediction accuracy of different market structures -- bookmakers versus a betting exchange," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 448-459, July.
  25. S Lessmann & M-C Sung & J E V Johnson, 2011. "Towards a methodology for measuring the true degree of efficiency in a speculative market," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 62(12), pages 2120-2132, December.
  26. Brown, Alasdair & Reade, J. James, 2019. "The wisdom of amateur crowds: Evidence from an online community of sports tipsters," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 272(3), pages 1073-1081.
  27. Leitner, Christoph & Zeileis, Achim & Hornik, Kurt, 2010. "Forecasting sports tournaments by ratings of (prob)abilities: A comparison for the EUROÂ 2008," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 471-481, July.
  28. Wheatcroft, Edward, 2020. "A profitable model for predicting the over/under market in football," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 916-932.
  29. Bruno Deschamps, 2008. "Betting Markets Efficiency: Evidence From European Football," Journal of Gambling Business and Economics, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 2(1), pages 66-76, May.
  30. Michels, Rouven & Ötting, Marius & Langrock, Roland, 2023. "Bettors’ reaction to match dynamics: Evidence from in-game betting," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 310(3), pages 1118-1127.
  31. Raffaele Mattera, 2023. "Forecasting binary outcomes in soccer," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 325(1), pages 115-134, June.
  32. Pascal Flurin Meier & Raphael Flepp & Egon Franck, 2021. "Are sports betting markets semistrong efficient? Evidence from the COVID-19 pandemic," Working Papers 387, University of Zurich, Department of Business Administration (IBW).
  33. Constantinou Anthony Costa & Fenton Norman Elliott, 2013. "Determining the level of ability of football teams by dynamic ratings based on the relative discrepancies in scores between adversaries," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 37-50, March.
  34. David Winkelmann & Marius Ötting & Christian Deutscher & Tomasz Makarewicz, 2024. "Are Betting Markets Inefficient? Evidence From Simulations and Real Data," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 25(1), pages 54-97, January.
  35. Dries Goossens & Jeroen Beliën & Frits Spieksma, 2012. "Comparing league formats with respect to match importance in Belgian football," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 194(1), pages 223-240, April.
  36. Philip W. S. Newall & Dominic Cortis, 2021. "Are Sports Bettors Biased toward Longshots, Favorites, or Both? A Literature Review," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-9, January.
  37. McHale, Ian & Morton, Alex, 2011. "A Bradley-Terry type model for forecasting tennis match results," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 619-630, April.
  38. Lessmann, Stefan & Sung, Ming-Chien & Johnson, Johnnie E.V. & Ma, Tiejun, 2012. "A new methodology for generating and combining statistical forecasting models to enhance competitive event prediction," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 218(1), pages 163-174.
  39. Bruno Deschamps & Olivier Gergaud, 2007. "Efficiency in Betting Markets: Evidence from English Football," Journal of Prediction Markets, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 1(1), pages 61-73, February.
  40. Carlos Gomez-Gonzalez & Julio del Corral, 2018. "The betting market over time: overround and surebets in European football," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 7(4), pages 129-136.
  41. Sung, Ming-Chien & McDonald, David C.J. & Johnson, Johnnie E.V. & Tai, Chung-Ching & Cheah, Eng-Tuck, 2019. "Improving prediction market forecasts by detecting and correcting possible over-reaction to price movements," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 272(1), pages 389-405.
  42. Forrest, David & Goddard, John & Simmons, Robert, 2005. "Odds-setters as forecasters: The case of English football," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 551-564.
  43. Strumbelj, E. & Sikonja, M. Robnik, 2010. "Online bookmakers' odds as forecasts: The case of European soccer leagues," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 482-488, July.
  44. I. Graham & H. Stott, 2008. "Predicting bookmaker odds and efficiency for UK football," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(1), pages 99-109.
  45. Ryall, Richard & Bedford, Anthony, 2010. "An optimized ratings-based model for forecasting Australian Rules football," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 511-517, July.
  46. Christoph Buehren & Tim Meyer & Christian Pierdzioch, 2020. "Experimental Evidence on Forecaster (anti-) Herding in Sports Markets," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202038, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
  47. Frank Daumann & Markus Breuer, 2011. "The Role of Information in Professional Football and the German Football Betting Market," Chapters, in: Wladimir Andreff (ed.), Contemporary Issues in Sports Economics, chapter 6, Edward Elgar Publishing.
  48. Andrew Grant & Anastasios Oikonomidis & Alistair C. Bruce & Johnnie E. V. Johnson, 2018. "New entry, strategic diversity and efficiency in soccer betting markets: the creation and suppression of arbitrage opportunities," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(18), pages 1799-1816, December.
  49. Fry, John & Serbera, Jean-Philippe & Wilson, Rob, 2021. "Managing performance expectations in association football," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 445-453.
  50. Nikolaos Vlastakis & George Dotsis & Raphael N. Markellos, 2009. "How efficient is the European football betting market? Evidence from arbitrage and trading strategies," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(5), pages 426-444.
  51. Luca De Angelis & J. James Reade, 2023. "Home advantage and mispricing in indoor sports’ ghost games: the case of European basketball," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 325(1), pages 391-418, June.
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