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Extensive comparison of physical models for photovoltaic power forecasting

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  1. Dou, Weijing & Wang, Kai & Shan, Shuo & Chen, Mingyu & Zhang, Kanjian & Wei, Haikun & Sreeram, Victor, 2025. "A multi-modal deep clustering method for day-ahead solar irradiance forecasting using ground-based cloud imagery and time series data," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 321(C).
  2. Hui Wang & Su Yan & Danyang Ju & Nan Ma & Jun Fang & Song Wang & Haijun Li & Tianyu Zhang & Yipeng Xie & Jun Wang, 2023. "Short-Term Photovoltaic Power Forecasting Based on a Feature Rise-Dimensional Two-Layer Ensemble Learning Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(21), pages 1-26, November.
  3. Mayer, Martin János & Biró, Bence & Szücs, Botond & Aszódi, Attila, 2023. "Probabilistic modeling of future electricity systems with high renewable energy penetration using machine learning," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 336(C).
  4. Wang, Yong & He, Xinbo & Zhou, Ying & Luo, Yongxian & Tang, Yanbing & Narayanan, Govindasami, 2024. "A novel structure adaptive grey seasonal model with data reorganization and its application in solar photovoltaic power generation prediction," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 302(C).
  5. Yu, Hanxin & Chen, Shanlin & Chu, Yinghao & Li, Mengying & Ding, Yueming & Cui, Rongxi & Zhao, Xin, 2024. "Self-attention mechanism to enhance the generalizability of data-driven time-series prediction: A case study of intra-hour power forecasting of urban distributed photovoltaic systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 374(C).
  6. Yang, Dazhi & Yagli, Gokhan Mert & Srinivasan, Dipti, 2022. "Sub-minute probabilistic solar forecasting for real-time stochastic simulations," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
  7. Abdelhady Ramadan & Salah Kamel & Mohamed H. Hassan & Marcos Tostado-Véliz & Ali M. Eltamaly, 2021. "Parameter Estimation of Static/Dynamic Photovoltaic Models Using a Developed Version of Eagle Strategy Gradient-Based Optimizer," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(23), pages 1-29, November.
  8. Louzazni, Mohamed & Al-Dahidi, Sameer, 2021. "Approximation of photovoltaic characteristics curves using Bézier Curve," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 715-732.
  9. Liwei Zhang & Lisang Liu & Wenwei Chen & Zhihui Lin & Dongwei He & Jian Chen, 2025. "Photovoltaic Power Generation Forecasting Based on Secondary Data Decomposition and Hybrid Deep Learning Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 18(12), pages 1-25, June.
  10. Anderson Mitterhofer Iung & Fernando Luiz Cyrino Oliveira & André Luís Marques Marcato, 2023. "A Review on Modeling Variable Renewable Energy: Complementarity and Spatial–Temporal Dependence," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-24, January.
  11. Grzegorz Woroniak & Joanna Piotrowska-Woroniak & Anna Woroniak & Edyta Owczarek & Krystyna Giza, 2024. "Analysis of the Hybrid Power-Heating System in a Single-Family Building, along with Ecological Aspects of the Operation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(11), pages 1-24, May.
  12. Jiaan Zhang & Yan Hao & Ruiqing Fan & Zhenzhen Wang, 2023. "An Ultra-Short-Term PV Power Forecasting Method for Changeable Weather Based on Clustering and Signal Decomposition," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(7), pages 1-15, March.
  13. Wang, Jianzhou & Yu, Yue & Zeng, Bo & Lu, Haiyan, 2024. "Hybrid ultra-short-term PV power forecasting system for deterministic forecasting and uncertainty analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 288(C).
  14. Yuan-Kang Wu & Cheng-Liang Huang & Quoc-Thang Phan & Yuan-Yao Li, 2022. "Completed Review of Various Solar Power Forecasting Techniques Considering Different Viewpoints," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-22, May.
  15. Mayer, Martin János & Yang, Dazhi, 2022. "Probabilistic photovoltaic power forecasting using a calibrated ensemble of model chains," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
  16. Abhnil Amtesh Prasad & Merlinde Kay, 2021. "Prediction of Solar Power Using Near-Real Time Satellite Data," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(18), pages 1-20, September.
  17. Chen, Rujian & Liu, Gang & Cao, Yisheng & Xiao, Gang & Tang, Jianchao, 2024. "CGAformer: Multi-scale feature Transformer with MLP architecture for short-term photovoltaic power forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 312(C).
  18. Zhai, Chao & He, Xinyi & Cao, Zhixiang & Abdou-Tankari, Mahamadou & Wang, Yi & Zhang, Minghao, 2025. "Photovoltaic power forecasting based on VMD-SSA-Transformer: Multidimensional analysis of dataset length, weather mutation and forecast accuracy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 324(C).
  19. Mayer, Martin János, 2022. "Benefits of physical and machine learning hybridization for photovoltaic power forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
  20. Ze Wu & Feifan Pan & Dandan Li & Hao He & Tiancheng Zhang & Shuyun Yang, 2022. "Prediction of Photovoltaic Power by the Informer Model Based on Convolutional Neural Network," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(20), pages 1-16, October.
  21. Mayer, Martin János & Yang, Dazhi, 2023. "Pairing ensemble numerical weather prediction with ensemble physical model chain for probabilistic photovoltaic power forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
  22. Sarmas, Elissaios & Spiliotis, Evangelos & Stamatopoulos, Efstathios & Marinakis, Vangelis & Doukas, Haris, 2023. "Short-term photovoltaic power forecasting using meta-learning and numerical weather prediction independent Long Short-Term Memory models," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
  23. Hong Wu & Haipeng Liu & Huaiping Jin & Yanping He, 2024. "Ultra-Short-Term Photovoltaic Power Prediction by NRGA-BiLSTM Considering Seasonality and Periodicity of Data," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(18), pages 1-19, September.
  24. Gao, Yuan & Hu, Zehuan & Chen, Wei-An & Liu, Mingzhe & Ruan, Yingjun, 2025. "A revolutionary neural network architecture with interpretability and flexibility based on Kolmogorov–Arnold for solar radiation and temperature forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 378(PA).
  25. Sara Pereira & Paulo Canhoto & Rui Salgado, 2024. "Prediction of Global Solar Irradiance on Parallel Rows of Tilted Surfaces Including the Effect of Direct and Anisotropic Diffuse Shading," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(14), pages 1-32, July.
  26. Mayer, Martin János, 2022. "Impact of the tilt angle, inverter sizing factor and row spacing on the photovoltaic power forecast accuracy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 323(C).
  27. Tang, Huadu & Kang, Fei & Li, Xinyu & Sun, Yong, 2025. "Short-term photovoltaic power prediction model based on feature construction and improved transformer," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 320(C).
  28. He, Xinbo & Wang, Yong & Zhang, Yuyang & Ma, Xin & Wu, Wenqing & Zhang, Lei, 2022. "A novel structure adaptive new information priority discrete grey prediction model and its application in renewable energy generation forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 325(C).
  29. Paweł Piotrowski & Mirosław Parol & Piotr Kapler & Bartosz Fetliński, 2022. "Advanced Forecasting Methods of 5-Minute Power Generation in a PV System for Microgrid Operation Control," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-23, April.
  30. Shi, Hongrong & Yang, Dazhi & Wang, Wenting & Fu, Disong & Gao, Ling & Zhang, Jinqiang & Hu, Bo & Shan, Yunpeng & Zhang, Yingjie & Bian, Yuxuan & Chen, Hongbin & Xia, Xiangao, 2023. "First estimation of high-resolution solar photovoltaic resource maps over China with Fengyun-4A satellite and machine learning," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
  31. Ahn, Hyeunguk, 2024. "A framework for developing data-driven correction factors for solar PV systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 290(C).
  32. Ma, Tao & Zhang, Yijie & Gu, Wenbo & Xiao, Gang & Yang, Hongxing & Wang, Shuxiao, 2022. "Strategy comparison and techno-economic evaluation of a grid-connected photovoltaic-battery system," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 197(C), pages 1049-1060.
  33. Bo Gu & Xi Li & Fengliang Xu & Xiaopeng Yang & Fayi Wang & Pengzhan Wang, 2023. "Forecasting and Uncertainty Analysis of Day-Ahead Photovoltaic Power Based on WT-CNN-BiLSTM-AM-GMM," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-27, April.
  34. Yang, Dazhi, 2022. "Estimating 1-min beam and diffuse irradiance from the global irradiance: A review and an extensive worldwide comparison of latest separation models at 126 stations," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
  35. Varaha Satra Bharath Kurukuru & Ahteshamul Haque & Mohammed Ali Khan & Subham Sahoo & Azra Malik & Frede Blaabjerg, 2021. "A Review on Artificial Intelligence Applications for Grid-Connected Solar Photovoltaic Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-35, August.
  36. Yin, Linfei & Cao, Xinghui & Liu, Dongduan, 2023. "Weighted fully-connected regression networks for one-day-ahead hourly photovoltaic power forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 332(C).
  37. Hu, Zehuan & Gao, Yuan & Ji, Siyu & Mae, Masayuki & Imaizumi, Taiji, 2024. "Improved multistep ahead photovoltaic power prediction model based on LSTM and self-attention with weather forecast data," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 359(C).
  38. Yang, Dazhi & Kleissl, Jan, 2023. "Summarizing ensemble NWP forecasts for grid operators: Consistency, elicitability, and economic value," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 1640-1654.
  39. Sameer Al-Dahidi & Manoharan Madhiarasan & Loiy Al-Ghussain & Ahmad M. Abubaker & Adnan Darwish Ahmad & Mohammad Alrbai & Mohammadreza Aghaei & Hussein Alahmer & Ali Alahmer & Piero Baraldi & Enrico Z, 2024. "Forecasting Solar Photovoltaic Power Production: A Comprehensive Review and Innovative Data-Driven Modeling Framework," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(16), pages 1-38, August.
  40. Chen, Xiang & Ding, Kun & Zhang, Jingwei & Han, Wei & Liu, Yongjie & Yang, Zenan & Weng, Shuai, 2022. "Online prediction of ultra-short-term photovoltaic power using chaotic characteristic analysis, improved PSO and KELM," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 248(C).
  41. Ladislav Zjavka, 2021. "Photovoltaic Energy All-Day and Intra-Day Forecasting Using Node by Node Developed Polynomial Networks Forming PDE Models Based on the L-Transformation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-14, November.
  42. Zhang, Ruoyang & Wu, Yu & Zhang, Lei & Xu, Chongbin & Wang, ZeYu & Zhang, Yanfeng & Sun, Xiaomin & Zuo, Xin & Wu, Yuhan & Chen, Qian, 2025. "A multiscale network with mixed features and extended regional weather forecasts for predicting short-term photovoltaic power," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 318(C).
  43. Yubo Wang & Chao Huo & Fei Xu & Libin Zheng & Ling Hao, 2025. "Ultra-Short-Term Distributed Photovoltaic Power Probabilistic Forecasting Method Based on Federated Learning and Joint Probability Distribution Modeling," Energies, MDPI, vol. 18(1), pages 1-21, January.
  44. Yu, Sheng & He, Bin & Fang, Lei, 2025. "Multi-step short-term forecasting of photovoltaic power utilizing TimesNet with enhanced feature extraction and a novel loss function," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 388(C).
  45. Cabello-López, Tomás & Carranza-García, Manuel & Riquelme, José C. & García-Gutiérrez, Jorge, 2023. "Forecasting solar energy production in Spain: A comparison of univariate and multivariate models at the national level," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 350(C).
  46. Mohamed Massaoudi & Ines Chihi & Lilia Sidhom & Mohamed Trabelsi & Shady S. Refaat & Fakhreddine S. Oueslati, 2021. "Enhanced Random Forest Model for Robust Short-Term Photovoltaic Power Forecasting Using Weather Measurements," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-20, July.
  47. Ahmed Faris Amiri & Aissa Chouder & Houcine Oudira & Santiago Silvestre & Sofiane Kichou, 2024. "Improving Photovoltaic Power Prediction: Insights through Computational Modeling and Feature Selection," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(13), pages 1-23, June.
  48. Huang, Yan & Ju, Yuntao & Ma, Kang & Short, Michael & Chen, Tao & Zhang, Ruosi & Lin, Yi, 2022. "Three-phase optimal power flow for networked microgrids based on semidefinite programming convex relaxation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 305(C).
  49. Yang, Dazhi & Wang, Wenting & Gueymard, Christian A. & Hong, Tao & Kleissl, Jan & Huang, Jing & Perez, Marc J. & Perez, Richard & Bright, Jamie M. & Xia, Xiang’ao & van der Meer, Dennis & Peters, Ian , 2022. "A review of solar forecasting, its dependence on atmospheric sciences and implications for grid integration: Towards carbon neutrality," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
  50. Gu, Bo & Shen, Huiqiang & Lei, Xiaohui & Hu, Hao & Liu, Xinyu, 2021. "Forecasting and uncertainty analysis of day-ahead photovoltaic power using a novel forecasting method," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 299(C).
  51. Ma, Huixin & Zhang, Chu & Peng, Tian & Nazir, Muhammad Shahzad & Li, Yiman, 2022. "An integrated framework of gated recurrent unit based on improved sine cosine algorithm for photovoltaic power forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 256(C).
  52. Brester, Christina & Kallio-Myers, Viivi & Lindfors, Anders V. & Kolehmainen, Mikko & Niska, Harri, 2023. "Evaluating neural network models in site-specific solar PV forecasting using numerical weather prediction data and weather observations," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 207(C), pages 266-274.
  53. Ian B. Benitez & Jessa A. Ibañez & Cenon III D. Lumabad & Jayson M. Cañete & Jeark A. Principe, 2023. "Day-Ahead Hourly Solar Photovoltaic Output Forecasting Using SARIMAX, Long Short-Term Memory, and Extreme Gradient Boosting: Case of the Philippines," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(23), pages 1-21, November.
  54. Huang, Congzhi & Yang, Mengyuan, 2023. "Memory long and short term time series network for ultra-short-term photovoltaic power forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 279(C).
  55. Latifa A. Yousef & Hibba Yousef & Lisandra Rocha-Meneses, 2023. "Artificial Intelligence for Management of Variable Renewable Energy Systems: A Review of Current Status and Future Directions," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(24), pages 1-27, December.
  56. Zhang, Gang & Yang, Dazhi & Galanis, George & Androulakis, Emmanouil, 2022. "Solar forecasting with hourly updated numerical weather prediction," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
  57. Wang, Yong & Yang, Zhongsen & Zhou, Ying & Liu, Hao & Yang, Rui & Sun, Lang & Sapnken, Flavian Emmanuel & Narayanan, Govindasami, 2025. "A novel structure adaptive new information priority grey Bernoulli model and its application in China's renewable energy production," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(C).
  58. Andi A. H. Lateko & Hong-Tzer Yang & Chao-Ming Huang, 2022. "Short-Term PV Power Forecasting Using a Regression-Based Ensemble Method," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-21, June.
  59. Li, Baojie & Chen, Xin & Jain, Anubhav, 2024. "Power modeling of degraded PV systems: Case studies using a dynamically updated physical model (PV-Pro)," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
  60. Chen, Xiaoyang & Du, Yang & Lim, Enggee & Fang, Lurui & Yan, Ke, 2022. "Towards the applicability of solar nowcasting: A practice on predictive PV power ramp-rate control," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C), pages 147-166.
  61. Mayer, Martin János & Yang, Dazhi, 2024. "Optimal place to apply post-processing in the deterministic photovoltaic power forecasting workflow," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 371(C).
  62. Weihui Xu & Zhaoke Wang & Weishu Wang & Jian Zhao & Miaojia Wang & Qinbao Wang, 2024. "Short-Term Photovoltaic Output Prediction Based on Decomposition and Reconstruction and XGBoost under Two Base Learners," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(4), pages 1-19, February.
  63. Jonkers, Jef & Avendano, Diego Nieves & Van Wallendael, Glenn & Van Hoecke, Sofie, 2024. "A novel day-ahead regional and probabilistic wind power forecasting framework using deep CNNs and conformalized regression forests," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 361(C).
  64. Cao, Yisheng & Liu, Gang & Luo, Donghua & Bavirisetti, Durga Prasad & Xiao, Gang, 2023. "Multi-timescale photovoltaic power forecasting using an improved Stacking ensemble algorithm based LSTM-Informer model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
  65. Yang, Yanru & Liu, Yu & Zhang, Yihang & Shu, Shaolong & Zheng, Junsheng, 2025. "DEST-GNN: A double-explored spatio-temporal graph neural network for multi-site intra-hour PV power forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 378(PA).
  66. Mladen Bošnjaković & Marinko Stojkov & Marko Katinić & Ivica Lacković, 2023. "Effects of Extreme Weather Conditions on PV Systems," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(22), pages 1-22, November.
  67. Yu, Min & Niu, Dongxiao & Wang, Keke & Du, Ruoyun & Yu, Xiaoyu & Sun, Lijie & Wang, Feiran, 2023. "Short-term photovoltaic power point-interval forecasting based on double-layer decomposition and WOA-BiLSTM-Attention and considering weather classification," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 275(C).
  68. Fan, Siyuan & Geng, Hua & Zhang, Hengqi & Yang, Dazhi & Mayer, Martin János, 2025. "Incorporation of dynamic soiling loss into the physical model chain of photovoltaic (PV) systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 324(C).
  69. Choi, Jung & Son, Seok-Woo & Lee, Seungjik & Park, Sangdae, 2024. "Advancing global solar photovoltaic power forecasting with sub-seasonal climate outlooks," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 237(PC).
  70. Huang, Songtao & Zhou, Qingguo & Shen, Jun & Zhou, Heng & Yong, Binbin, 2024. "Multistage spatio-temporal attention network based on NODE for short-term PV power forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 290(C).
  71. Wang, Min & Rao, Congjun & Xiao, Xinping & Hu, Zhuo & Goh, Mark, 2024. "Efficient shrinkage temporal convolutional network model for photovoltaic power prediction," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 297(C).
  72. liu, Qian & li, Yulin & jiang, Hang & chen, Yilin & zhang, Jiang, 2024. "Short-term photovoltaic power forecasting based on multiple mode decomposition and parallel bidirectional long short term combined with convolutional neural networks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 286(C).
  73. Cui, Shuhui & Lyu, Shouping & Ma, Yongzhi & Wang, Kai, 2024. "Improved informer PV power short-term prediction model based on weather typing and AHA-VMD-MPE," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 307(C).
  74. Yang, Shaomei & Luo, Yuman, 2025. "Short-term photovoltaic power prediction based on RF-SGMD-GWO-BiLSTM hybrid models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 316(C).
  75. Wang, Wenting & Yang, Dazhi & Huang, Nantian & Lyu, Chao & Zhang, Gang & Han, Xueying, 2022. "Irradiance-to-power conversion based on physical model chain: An application on the optimal configuration of multi-energy microgrid in cold climate," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
  76. Mayer, Martin János & Yang, Dazhi, 2023. "Calibration of deterministic NWP forecasts and its impact on verification," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 981-991.
  77. Liu, Wencheng & Mao, Zhizhong, 2024. "Short-term photovoltaic power forecasting with feature extraction and attention mechanisms," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
  78. Markovics, Dávid & Mayer, Martin János, 2022. "Comparison of machine learning methods for photovoltaic power forecasting based on numerical weather prediction," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
  79. Wang, Junjie & Ye, Li & Ding, Xiaoyu & Dang, Yaoguo, 2024. "A novel seasonal grey prediction model with time-lag and interactive effects for forecasting the photovoltaic power generation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
  80. Tziolis, Georgios & Spanias, Chrysovalantis & Theodoride, Maria & Theocharides, Spyros & Lopez-Lorente, Javier & Livera, Andreas & Makrides, George & Georghiou, George E., 2023. "Short-term electric net load forecasting for solar-integrated distribution systems based on Bayesian neural networks and statistical post-processing," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 271(C).
  81. Luis O. Polanco Vásquez & Víctor M. Ramírez & Diego Langarica Córdova & Juana López Redondo & José Domingo Álvarez & José Luis Torres-Moreno, 2021. "Optimal Management of a Microgrid with Radiation and Wind-Speed Forecasting: A Case Study Applied to a Bioclimatic Building," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-16, April.
  82. Mayer, Martin János & Yang, Dazhi & Szintai, Balázs, 2023. "Comparing global and regional downscaled NWP models for irradiance and photovoltaic power forecasting: ECMWF versus AROME," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 352(C).
  83. Niu, Yunbo & Wang, Jianzhou & Zhang, Ziyuan & Luo, Tianrui & Liu, Jingjiang, 2024. "De-Trend First, Attend Next: A Mid-Term PV forecasting system with attention mechanism and encoder–decoder structure," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 353(PB).
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