IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/rensus/v184y2023ics1364032123004069.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

First estimation of high-resolution solar photovoltaic resource maps over China with Fengyun-4A satellite and machine learning

Author

Listed:
  • Shi, Hongrong
  • Yang, Dazhi
  • Wang, Wenting
  • Fu, Disong
  • Gao, Ling
  • Zhang, Jinqiang
  • Hu, Bo
  • Shan, Yunpeng
  • Zhang, Yingjie
  • Bian, Yuxuan
  • Chen, Hongbin
  • Xia, Xiangao

Abstract

Fengyun-4A (FY-4A), which is the latest-generation Chinese geostationary meteorological satellite, measures solar reflection and thermal emission with high temporal, spatial, and spectral resolutions. It is expected to be highly beneficial for solar resource assessment and forecasting in China. This study is the first to estimate, using FY-4A and a random forest model, the global horizontal irradiance (GHI) at a 4-km–15-min spatio-temporal resolution over China, as a means to arrive at a solar photovoltaic (PV) resource map. In terms of GHI estimates, the root mean square error and mean bias error between hourly measured and retrieved values are 147.02 (35.2%), −5.64 W/m2 (−1.4%), respectively, whereas the values of daily estimates are 29.20 (18.0%), −2.97 W/m2 (−1.3%). The retrieval accuracy is found much better for instances with solar zenith angles smaller than 60°. Relatively larger errors are found at locations in the Sichuan Basin and northeastern China, which can be attributed to bright surfaces and/or strong cloud transients. With the retrieved irradiance, PV resource is derived through a physical model chain. The annual mean PV resource map suggests that, over most of the west areas, the annual mean effective irradiance exceeds 1700 kWh/m2, with the highest value found in Tibet (around 2000 kWh/m2 per annum). Eastern China has an annual effective irradiance of only 1300–1500 kWh/m2. The region with poorest solar resource is the Sichuan Basin (less than 1100 kWh/m2 per annum).

Suggested Citation

  • Shi, Hongrong & Yang, Dazhi & Wang, Wenting & Fu, Disong & Gao, Ling & Zhang, Jinqiang & Hu, Bo & Shan, Yunpeng & Zhang, Yingjie & Bian, Yuxuan & Chen, Hongbin & Xia, Xiangao, 2023. "First estimation of high-resolution solar photovoltaic resource maps over China with Fengyun-4A satellite and machine learning," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:rensus:v:184:y:2023:i:c:s1364032123004069
    DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2023.113549
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364032123004069
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.rser.2023.113549?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sengupta, Manajit & Xie, Yu & Lopez, Anthony & Habte, Aron & Maclaurin, Galen & Shelby, James, 2018. "The National Solar Radiation Data Base (NSRDB)," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 51-60.
    2. Yang, Dazhi, 2022. "Estimating 1-min beam and diffuse irradiance from the global irradiance: A review and an extensive worldwide comparison of latest separation models at 126 stations," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    3. Xie, Yu & Sengupta, Manajit & Habte, Aron & Andreas, Afshin, 2022. "The “Fresnel Equations” for Diffuse radiation on Inclined photovoltaic Surfaces (FEDIS)," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    4. Jiang, Hou & Lu, Ning & Qin, Jun & Tang, Wenjun & Yao, Ling, 2019. "A deep learning algorithm to estimate hourly global solar radiation from geostationary satellite data," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 1-1.
    5. Liu, H. & Hu, B. & Zhang, L. & Zhao, X.J. & Shang, K.Z. & Wang, Y.S. & Wang, J., 2017. "Ultraviolet radiation over China: Spatial distribution and trends," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 1371-1383.
    6. Mayer, Martin János & Gróf, Gyula, 2021. "Extensive comparison of physical models for photovoltaic power forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    7. Wang, Wenting & Yang, Dazhi & Huang, Nantian & Lyu, Chao & Zhang, Gang & Han, Xueying, 2022. "Irradiance-to-power conversion based on physical model chain: An application on the optimal configuration of multi-energy microgrid in cold climate," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yang, Dazhi & Kleissl, Jan, 2023. "Summarizing ensemble NWP forecasts for grid operators: Consistency, elicitability, and economic value," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 1640-1654.
    2. Wang, Wenting & Yang, Dazhi & Huang, Nantian & Lyu, Chao & Zhang, Gang & Han, Xueying, 2022. "Irradiance-to-power conversion based on physical model chain: An application on the optimal configuration of multi-energy microgrid in cold climate," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    3. Mayer, Martin János, 2022. "Benefits of physical and machine learning hybridization for photovoltaic power forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    4. Mayer, Martin János & Yang, Dazhi & Szintai, Balázs, 2023. "Comparing global and regional downscaled NWP models for irradiance and photovoltaic power forecasting: ECMWF versus AROME," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 352(C).
    5. Ruiz-Arias, José A., 2023. "SPARTA: Solar parameterization for the radiative transfer of the cloudless atmosphere," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    6. Yang, Dazhi, 2022. "Estimating 1-min beam and diffuse irradiance from the global irradiance: A review and an extensive worldwide comparison of latest separation models at 126 stations," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    7. Narvaez, Gabriel & Giraldo, Luis Felipe & Bressan, Michael & Pantoja, Andres, 2021. "Machine learning for site-adaptation and solar radiation forecasting," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 333-342.
    8. Chen, Shanlin & Li, Chengxi & Xie, Yuying & Li, Mengying, 2023. "Global and direct solar irradiance estimation using deep learning and selected spectral satellite images," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 352(C).
    9. Yang, Dazhi & Wang, Wenting & Gueymard, Christian A. & Hong, Tao & Kleissl, Jan & Huang, Jing & Perez, Marc J. & Perez, Richard & Bright, Jamie M. & Xia, Xiang’ao & van der Meer, Dennis & Peters, Ian , 2022. "A review of solar forecasting, its dependence on atmospheric sciences and implications for grid integration: Towards carbon neutrality," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    10. Mayer, Martin János & Yang, Dazhi, 2022. "Probabilistic photovoltaic power forecasting using a calibrated ensemble of model chains," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    11. Neupane, Deependra & Kafle, Sagar & Karki, Kaji Ram & Kim, Dae Hyun & Pradhan, Prajal, 2022. "Solar and wind energy potential assessment at provincial level in Nepal: Geospatial and economic analysis," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 278-291.
    12. Gueymard, Christian A. & Bright, Jamie M. & Lingfors, David & Habte, Aron & Sengupta, Manajit, 2019. "A posteriori clear-sky identification methods in solar irradiance time series: Review and preliminary validation using sky imagers," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 412-427.
    13. Vallianos, Charalampos & Candanedo, José & Athienitis, Andreas, 2023. "Application of a large smart thermostat dataset for model calibration and Model Predictive Control implementation in the residential sector," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 278(PA).
    14. Craig, Michael & Guerra, Omar J. & Brancucci, Carlo & Pambour, Kwabena Addo & Hodge, Bri-Mathias, 2020. "Valuing intra-day coordination of electric power and natural gas system operations," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    15. Zimmerman, Ryan & Panda, Anurag & Bulović, Vladimir, 2020. "Techno-economic assessment and deployment strategies for vertically-mounted photovoltaic panels," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 276(C).
    16. Sanzana Tabassum & Tanvin Rahman & Ashraf Ul Islam & Sumayya Rahman & Debopriya Roy Dipta & Shidhartho Roy & Naeem Mohammad & Nafiu Nawar & Eklas Hossain, 2021. "Solar Energy in the United States: Development, Challenges and Future Prospects," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-65, December.
    17. Ren, Simiao & Hu, Wayne & Bradbury, Kyle & Harrison-Atlas, Dylan & Malaguzzi Valeri, Laura & Murray, Brian & Malof, Jordan M., 2022. "Automated Extraction of Energy Systems Information from Remotely Sensed Data: A Review and Analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 326(C).
    18. Jiang, Hou & Lu, Ning & Huang, Guanghui & Yao, Ling & Qin, Jun & Liu, Hengzi, 2020. "Spatial scale effects on retrieval accuracy of surface solar radiation using satellite data," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 270(C).
    19. Amadeh, Ali & Lee, Zachary E. & Zhang, K. Max, 2022. "Quantifying demand flexibility of building energy systems under uncertainty," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 246(C).
    20. Mohamed Massaoudi & Ines Chihi & Lilia Sidhom & Mohamed Trabelsi & Shady S. Refaat & Fakhreddine S. Oueslati, 2021. "Enhanced Random Forest Model for Robust Short-Term Photovoltaic Power Forecasting Using Weather Measurements," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-20, July.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:rensus:v:184:y:2023:i:c:s1364032123004069. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/600126/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.