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Interpreting the crude oil price movements: Evidence from the Markov regime switching model

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  1. Ghassan, Hassan Belkacem & AlHajhoj, Hassan Rafdan, 2016. "Long run dynamic volatilities between OPEC and non-OPEC crude oil prices," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 384-394.
  2. Kristjanpoller, Werner D. & Concha, Diego, 2016. "Impact of fuel price fluctuations on airline stock returns," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 496-504.
  3. Muhammad Naeem & Hothefa Shaker Jassim & Kashif Saleem & Maham Fatima, 2025. "Forecasting Volatility of the Nordic Electricity Market an Application of the MSGARCH," Risks, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-19, March.
  4. Yao, Ting & Zhang, Yue-Jun & Ma, Chao-Qun, 2017. "How does investor attention affect international crude oil prices?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 205(C), pages 336-344.
  5. Lu-Tao Zhao & Shun-Gang Wang & Zhi-Gang Zhang, 2020. "Oil Price Forecasting Using a Time-Varying Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-16, March.
  6. Laurini, Márcio Poletti & Mauad, Roberto Baltieri & Aiube, Fernando Antônio Lucena, 2020. "The impact of co-jumps in the oil sector," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
  7. Daniel v{S}tifani'c & Jelena Musulin & Adrijana Miov{c}evi'c & Sandi Baressi v{S}egota & Roman v{S}ubi'c & Zlatan Car, 2020. "Impact of COVID-19 on Forecasting Stock Prices: An Integration of Stationary Wavelet Transform and Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory," Papers 2007.02673, arXiv.org.
  8. AlKathiri, Nader & Atalla, Tarek N. & Murphy, Frederic & Pierru, Axel, 2020. "Optimal policies for managing oil revenue stabilization funds: An illustration using Saudi Arabia," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
  9. Akdoğan, Kurmaş, 2020. "Fundamentals versus speculation in oil market: The role of asymmetries in price adjustment?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
  10. Gregory Galay & Henry Thille, 2021. "Pipeline capacity and the dynamics of Alberta crude oil price spreads," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 54(3), pages 1072-1102, November.
  11. Figuerola-Ferretti, Isabel & McCrorie, J. Roderick & Paraskevopoulos, Ioannis, 2020. "Mild explosivity in recent crude oil prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
  12. Tumala, Mohammed M. & Salisu, Afees & Nmadu, Yaaba B., 2023. "Climate change and fossil fuel prices: A GARCH-MIDAS analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
  13. Weng, Futian & Zhang, Hongwei & Yang, Cai, 2021. "Volatility forecasting of crude oil futures based on a genetic algorithm regularization online extreme learning machine with a forgetting factor: The role of news during the COVID-19 pandemic," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
  14. Chao Liang & Yin Liao & Feng Ma & Bo Zhu, 2022. "United States Oil Fund volatility prediction: the roles of leverage effect and jumps," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(5), pages 2239-2262, May.
  15. Wang, Lu & Ma, Feng & Niu, Tianjiao & Liang, Chao, 2021. "The importance of extreme shock: Examining the effect of investor sentiment on the crude oil futures market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
  16. You‐How Go & Jia‐Jun Teo & Kam Fong Chan, 2023. "The effectiveness of crude oil futures hedging during infectious disease outbreaks in the 21st century," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(11), pages 1559-1575, November.
  17. Sabri Boubaker & Zhenya Liu & Yifan Zhang, 2025. "Forecasting oil commodity spot price in a data-rich environment," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 345(2), pages 685-702, February.
  18. Rashidi Ranjbar, Hedieh & Seifi, Abbas, 2015. "A path-independent method for barrier option pricing in hidden Markov models," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 440(C), pages 1-8.
  19. Dragomirescu-Gaina, Catalin & Philippas, Dionisis & Goutte, Stéphane, 2023. "How to ‘Trump’ the energy market: Evidence from the WTI-Brent spread," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
  20. Haykir, Ozkan & Yagli, Ibrahim & Aktekin Gok, Emine Dilara & Budak, Hilal, 2022. "Oil price explosivity and stock return: Do sector and firm size matter?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
  21. José Antonio Núñez-Mora & Eduardo Sánchez-Ruenes, 2020. "Generalized Hyperbolic Distribution and Portfolio Efficiency in Energy and Stock Markets of BRIC Countries," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-14, October.
  22. Lu-Tao Zhao & Li-Na Liu & Zi-Jie Wang & Ling-Yun He, 2019. "Forecasting Oil Price Volatility in the Era of Big Data: A Text Mining for VaR Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(14), pages 1-20, July.
  23. Sabri Boubaker & Zhenya Liu & Yaosong Zhan, 2022. "Risk management for crude oil futures: an optimal stopping-timing approach," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 313(1), pages 9-27, June.
  24. Ju, Keyi & Su, Bin & Zhou, Dequn & Zhang, Yuqiang, 2016. "An incentive-oriented early warning system for predicting the co-movements between oil price shocks and macroeconomy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 452-463.
  25. Zhang, Qi & Di, Peng & Farnoosh, Arash, 2021. "Study on the impacts of Shanghai crude oil futures on global oil market and oil industry based on VECM and DAG models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 223(C).
  26. He, Huizi & Sun, Mei & Gao, Cuixia & Li, Xiuming, 2021. "Detecting lag linkage effect between economic policy uncertainty and crude oil price: A multi-scale perspective," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 580(C).
  27. Jiliang Sheng & Juchao Li & Jun Yang, 2022. "Tail Dependency and Risk Spillover between Oil Market and Chinese Sectoral Stock Markets—An Assessment of the 2013 Refined Oil Pricing Reform," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(16), pages 1-19, August.
  28. Zou, Yingchao & Yu, Lean & Tso, Geoffrey K.F. & He, Kaijian, 2020. "Risk forecasting in the crude oil market: A multiscale Convolutional Neural Network approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 541(C).
  29. Shirazi, Masoud, 2022. "Assessing energy trilemma-related policies: The world's large energy user evidence," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
  30. Wang, Lijun & An, Haizhong & Liu, Xiaojia & Huang, Xuan, 2016. "Selecting dynamic moving average trading rules in the crude oil futures market using a genetic approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 1608-1618.
  31. Huiming Zhu & Xianfang Su & Wanhai You & Yinghua Ren, 2017. "Asymmetric effects of oil price shocks on stock returns: evidence from a two-stage Markov regime-switching approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(25), pages 2491-2507, May.
  32. Chai, Jian & Xing, Li-Min & Zhou, Xiao-Yang & Zhang, Zhe George & Li, Jie-Xun, 2018. "Forecasting the WTI crude oil price by a hybrid-refined method," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 114-127.
  33. Chun, Dohyun & Cho, Hoon & Kim, Jihun, 2019. "Crude oil price shocks and hedging performance: A comparison of volatility models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 1132-1147.
  34. Chen, Zhuoyi & Liu, Yuanyuan & Zhang, Hongwei, 2024. "Can geopolitical risks impact the long-run correlation between crude oil and clean energy markets? Evidence from a regime-switching analysis," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
  35. Geng, Jiang-Bo & Ji, Qiang & Fan, Ying, 2016. "The impact of the North American shale gas revolution on regional natural gas markets: Evidence from the regime-switching model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 167-178.
  36. Jia, Xiaoliang & An, Haizhong & Sun, Xiaoqi & Huang, Xuan & Wang, Lijun, 2017. "Evolution of world crude oil market integration and diversification: A wavelet-based complex network perspective," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 185(P2), pages 1788-1798.
  37. Zhao, Lu-Tao & Wang, Yi & Guo, Shi-Qiu & Zeng, Guan-Rong, 2018. "A novel method based on numerical fitting for oil price trend forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 220(C), pages 154-163.
  38. Yue Liu & Hao Dong & Pierre Failler, 2019. "The Oil Market Reactions to OPEC’s Announcements," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(17), pages 1-15, August.
  39. Zhang, Xiao-Bing & Qin, Ping & Chen, Xiaolan, 2017. "Strategic oil stockpiling for energy security: The case of China and India," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 253-260.
  40. Pablo Cansado-Bravo & Carlos Rodríguez-Monroy, 2018. "Persistence of Oil Prices in Gas Import Prices and the Resilience of the Oil-Indexation Mechanism. The Case of Spanish Gas Import Prices," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-17, December.
  41. Zhang, Yue-Jun & Yao, Ting, 2016. "Interpreting the movement of oil prices: Driven by fundamentals or bubbles?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 226-240.
  42. Yu, Hongchu & Fang, Zhixiang & Lu, Feng & Murray, Alan T. & Zhang, Hengcai & Peng, Peng & Mei, Qiang & Chen, Jinhai, 2019. "Impact of oil price fluctuations on tanker maritime network structure and traffic flow changes," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 237(C), pages 390-403.
  43. Gong, Xu & Wen, Fenghua & Xia, X.H. & Huang, Jianbai & Pan, Bin, 2017. "Investigating the risk-return trade-off for crude oil futures using high-frequency data," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 196(C), pages 152-161.
  44. Ayben Koy, 2022. "Regime Switching Mechanism during Energy Futures Price Bubbles," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 12(1), pages 373-382.
  45. Theodosios Perifanis, 2019. "Detecting West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Prices’ Bubble Periods," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(14), pages 1-16, July.
  46. ebrahimi, mohsen & babaei agh esmaili, Majid & kafili, vahid, 2017. "بررسی رژیم های قیمتی دو شاخص عمده بازار جهانی نفت(برنت و Wti) قبل و بعد از بحران مالی:کاربردی از رویکرد مارکف سوئیچینگ [Investigate price regimes of two prime index in the world oil market(Brent an," MPRA Paper 98739, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  47. Zhao, Yang & Li, Jianping & Yu, Lean, 2017. "A deep learning ensemble approach for crude oil price forecasting," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 9-16.
  48. Muhammad Kamran Khan & Jian‐Zhou Teng & Muhammad Imran Khan & Muhammad Fayaz Khan, 2023. "Stock market reaction to macroeconomic variables: An assessment with dynamic autoregressive distributed lag simulations," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(3), pages 2436-2448, July.
  49. Liu, Yue & Tian, Lixin & Sun, Huaping & Zhang, Xiling & Kong, Chuimin, 2022. "Option pricing of carbon asset and its application in digital decision-making of carbon asset," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 310(C).
  50. An, Sufang & An, Feng & Gao, Xiangyun & Wang, Anjian, 2023. "Early warning of critical transitions in crude oil price," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 280(C).
  51. Song, Zhouying & Zhu, Qiaoling & Han, Mengyao, 2021. "Tele-connection of global crude oil network: Comparisons between direct trade and embodied flows," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
  52. Gao, Xiangyun & Fang, Wei & An, Feng & Wang, Yue, 2017. "Detecting method for crude oil price fluctuation mechanism under different periodic time series," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 192(C), pages 201-212.
  53. Urom, Christian & Onwuka, Kevin O. & Uma, Kalu E. & Yuni, Denis N., 2020. "Regime dependent effects and cyclical volatility spillover between crude oil price movements and stock returns," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 10-29.
  54. Jung, Sean S. & Chang, Woojin, 2016. "Clustering stocks using partial correlation coefficients," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 462(C), pages 410-420.
  55. V., Ernesto Guerra & H., Eugenio Bobenrieth & H., Juan Bobenrieth & Wright, Brian D., 2023. "Endogenous thresholds in energy prices: Modeling and empirical estimation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
  56. Qianjie Geng & Xianfeng Hao & Yudong Wang, 2024. "Forecasting the volatility of crude oil futures: A time‐dependent weighted least squares with regularization constraint," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(2), pages 309-325, March.
  57. Wang, Lu & Ma, Feng & Hao, Jianyang & Gao, Xinxin, 2021. "Forecasting crude oil volatility with geopolitical risk: Do time-varying switching probabilities play a role?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
  58. Kuck, Konstantin & Schweikert, Karsten, 2017. "A Markov regime-switching model of crude oil market integration," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 6(C), pages 16-31.
  59. García-Carranco, Sergio M. & Bory-Reyes, Juan & Balankin, Alexander S., 2016. "The crude oil price bubbling and universal scaling dynamics of price volatility," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 452(C), pages 60-68.
  60. Zuzanna Karolak, 2021. "Energy prices forecasting using nonlinear univariate models," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 52(6), pages 577-598.
  61. Luo, Jiawen & Ji, Qiang & Klein, Tony & Todorova, Neda & Zhang, Dayong, 2020. "On realized volatility of crude oil futures markets: Forecasting with exogenous predictors under structural breaks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
  62. Su, Chi-Wei & Li, Zheng-Zheng & Chang, Hsu-Ling & Lobonţ, Oana-Ramona, 2017. "When Will Occur the Crude Oil Bubbles?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 1-6.
  63. Ebru Caglayan Akay & Sinem Guler Kangalli Uyar, 2016. "Determining the Functional Form of Relationships between Oil Prices and Macroeconomic Variables: The Case of Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea, Turkey Countries," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 6(3), pages 880-891.
  64. Umar, Muhammad & Su, Chi-Wei & Rizvi, Syed Kumail Abbas & Lobonţ, Oana-Ramona, 2021. "Driven by fundamentals or exploded by emotions: Detecting bubbles in oil prices," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
  65. Lin, Boqiang & Su, Tong, 2020. "Mapping the oil price-stock market nexus researches: A scientometric review," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 133-147.
  66. Scarcioffolo, Alexandre R. & Etienne, Xiaoli L., 2021. "Regime-switching energy price volatility: The role of economic policy uncertainty," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 336-356.
  67. Li, Panpan & Dong, Zhiliang, 2020. "Time-varying network analysis of fluctuations between crude oil and Chinese and U.S. gold prices in different periods," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
  68. Di Zhu & Yinghong Wang & Fenglin Zhang, 2022. "Energy Price Prediction Integrated with Singular Spectrum Analysis and Long Short-Term Memory Network against the Background of Carbon Neutrality," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(21), pages 1-20, October.
  69. Ajmi, Ahdi Noomen & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Mokni, Khaled, 2021. "Detection of bubbles in WTI, brent, and Dubai oil prices: A novel double recursive algorithm," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
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