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The Predictive Information Content of External Imbalances for Exchange Rate Returns: How Much Is It Worth?

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. is not listed on IDEAS
  2. Nicolas Coeurdacier & Hélène Rey, 2013. "Home Bias in Open Economy Financial Macroeconomics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 51(1), pages 63-115, March.
  3. Nicolas Coeurdacier & Hélène Rey, 2013. "Home Bias in Open Economy Financial Macroeconomics," SciencePo Working papers hal-03473901, HAL.
  4. Inoue, Atsushi & Jin, Lu & Rossi, Barbara, 2017. "Rolling window selection for out-of-sample forecasting with time-varying parameters," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 196(1), pages 55-67.
  5. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/1shj1p7td8e0r5c9fcsnk8a91 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. Joscha Beckmann & Robert L. Czudaj, 2020. "Net Foreign Asset Positions, Capital Flows and GDP Spillovers," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 295-308, April.
  7. de Souza Vasconcelos, Camila & Hadad Júnior, Eli, 2023. "Forecasting exchange rate: A bibliometric and content analysis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 607-628.
  8. Pasquale Della Corte & Steven J. Riddiough & Lucio Sarno, 2016. "Currency Premia and Global Imbalances," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(8), pages 2161-2193.
  9. Amat, Christophe & Michalski, Tomasz & Stoltz, Gilles, 2018. "Fundamentals and exchange rate forecastability with simple machine learning methods," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 1-24.
  10. Barbara Rossi, 2013. "Exchange Rate Predictability," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1063-1119, December.
  11. Dick, Christian D. & MacDonald, Ronald & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2015. "Exchange rate forecasts and expected fundamentals," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 235-256.
  12. Nelson Camanho & Harald Hau & Hélène Rey, 2022. "Global Portfolio Rebalancing and Exchange Rates," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 35(11), pages 5228-5274.
  13. Vasios, Michalis & Payne, Richard & Nolte, Ingmar, 2015. "Profiting from Mimicking Strategies in Non-Anonymous Markets," MPRA Paper 61710, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  14. Andersen, Torben G. & Todorov, Viktor & Ubukata, Masato, 2021. "Tail risk and return predictability for the Japanese equity market," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 222(1), pages 344-363.
  15. Aleksejs Krecetovs & Pasquale Della Corte, 2016. "Macro uncertainty and currency premia," 2016 Meeting Papers 624, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  16. Maio, Paulo & Zeng, Ming, 2023. "On the driving forces of real exchange rates: Is the Japanese Yen different?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
  17. Davood Pirayesh Neghab & Mucahit Cevik & M. I. M. Wahab, 2023. "Explaining Exchange Rate Forecasts with Macroeconomic Fundamentals Using Interpretive Machine Learning," Papers 2303.16149, arXiv.org.
  18. Juliana D. Araujo & Povilas Lastauskas & Chris Papageorgiou, 2017. "Evolution of Bilateral Capital Flows to Developing Countries at Intensive and Extensive Margins," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(7), pages 1517-1554, October.
  19. de Boer, Jantke & Eichler, Stefan, 2024. "FX dealer constraints and external imbalances," Ruhr Economic Papers 1132, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
  20. Feng, Wenjun & Zhang, Zhengjun, 2023. "Currency exchange rate predictability: The new power of Bitcoin prices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
  21. Ibrahim D. Raheem & Xuan Vinh Vo, 2022. "A new approach to exchange rate forecast: The role of global financial cycle and time‐varying parameters," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 2836-2848, July.
  22. Martin McCarthy, Stephen Snudden, 2024. "Forecasts of Period-Average Exchange Rates: New Insights from Real-Time Daily Data," LCERPA Working Papers jc0148, Laurier Centre for Economic Research and Policy Analysis, revised Oct 2024.
  23. Vesna Bucevska, 2015. "Currency Crises in EU Candidate Countries: An Early Warning System Approach," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 62(4), pages 493-510, September.
  24. de Boer, Jantke, 2024. "Global portfolio network and currency risk premia," Ruhr Economic Papers 1133, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
  25. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2017. "Asset prices and macroeconomic outcomes: a survey," BIS Working Papers 676, Bank for International Settlements.
  26. Victor Yotzov, 2014. "Prognostic Power of Early Warning Signals for Financial Crises – Theoretical Approaches and Empirical Results," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 2, pages 3-38.
  27. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert, 2017. "Exchange rate expectations since the financial crisis: Performance evaluation and the role of monetary policy and safe haven," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 283-300.
  28. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95, May.
  29. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/c8dmi8nm4pdjkuc9g81p7j6b6 is not listed on IDEAS
  30. Kalantzis, Y. & Zignago, S. & To wbin, P., 2014. "Ajustement international et rééquilibrage de la demande mondiale : où en sommes-nous ?," Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 195, pages 21-34.
  31. Dahlquist, Magnus & Hasseltoft, Henrik, 2020. "Economic momentum and currency returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(1), pages 152-167.
  32. Christian Grisse & Thomas Nitschka, 2016. "Exchange Rate Returns and External Adjustment: Evidence from Switzerland," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 317-339, April.
  33. Bathia, Deven & Demirer, Riza & Gupta, Rangan & Kotzé, Kevin, 2021. "Unemployment fluctuations and currency returns in the United Kingdom: Evidence from over one and a half century of data," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
  34. Raheem, Ibrahim, 2020. "Global financial cycles and exchange rate forecast: A factor analysis," MPRA Paper 105358, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  35. Breen, John David & Hu, Liang, 2021. "The predictive content of oil price and volatility: New evidence on exchange rate forecasting," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
  36. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert, 2017. "Capital flows and GDP in emerging economies and the role of global spillovers," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 140-163.
  37. Matthieu Bussière, 2013. "In Defense of Early Warning Signals," Working papers 420, Banque de France.
  38. Gardberg, Malin, 2018. "Linking Net Foreign Portfolio Debt and Equity to Exchange Rate Movements," Working Paper Series 1246, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
  39. Dahlquist, Magnus & Pénasse, Julien, 2022. "The missing risk premium in exchange rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(2), pages 697-715.
  40. Malin Gardberg, 2022. "Exchange Rate Sensitivity and the Net Foreign Asset Composition," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(2-3), pages 569-598, March.
  41. Buncic, Daniel & Piras, Gion Donat, 2016. "Heterogeneous agents, the financial crisis and exchange rate predictability," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 313-359.
  42. Hsu, Po-Hsuan & Taylor, Mark P. & Wang, Zigan & Xu, Qi, 2022. "Currency volatility and global technological innovation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
  43. Beatrice D. Simo-Kengne & Kofi Agyarko Ababio & Jules Mba & Ur Koumba & Makgale Molepo, 2018. "Risk, Uncertainty and Exchange Rate Behavior in South Africa," Journal of African Business, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(2), pages 262-278, April.
  44. Ribeiro, Pinho J., 2017. "Selecting exchange rate fundamentals by bootstrap," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 894-914.
  45. Garratt, Anthony & Mise, Emi, 2014. "Forecasting exchange rates using panel model and model averaging," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 32-40.
  46. Ponomareva, Natalia & Sheen, Jeffrey & Wang, Ben Zhe, 2019. "Forecasting exchange rates using principal components," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
  47. Hou, Ai Jun & Sarno, Lucio & Ye, Xiaoxia, 2025. "The trade imbalance network and currency returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
  48. repec:bfr:bullbf:2013:195:03 is not listed on IDEAS
  49. Lasha Kavtaradze & Manouchehr Mokhtari, 2018. "Factor Models And Time†Varying Parameter Framework For Forecasting Exchange Rates And Inflation: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(2), pages 302-334, April.
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