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How Well Do Economists Forecast Stock Market Prices? A Study of the Livingston Surveys

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Söderlind, Paul, 2009. "The C-CAPM without ex post data," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 721-729, December.
  2. Aretz, Kevin & Bartram, Söhnke M. & Pope, Peter F., 2011. "Asymmetric loss functions and the rationality of expected stock returns," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 413-437.
  3. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Chinn, Menzie D, 1993. "Exchange Rate Expectations and the Risk Premium: Tests for a Cross Section of 17 Currencies," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(2), pages 136-144, June.
  4. Bacchetta, Philippe & Mertens, Elmar & van Wincoop, Eric, 2009. "Predictability in financial markets: What do survey expectations tell us?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 406-426, April.
  5. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn, 1999. "Are Macroeconomic Forecasts Informative? Cointegration Evidence from the ASA-NBER Surveys," NBER Working Papers 6926, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Kapil Gupta & Balwinder Singh, 2009. "Information Memory and Pricing Efficiency of Futures Contracts," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 8(2), pages 191-250, May.
  7. Bao, Te & Corgnet, Brice & Hanaki, Nobuyuki & Okada, Katsuhiko & Riyanto, Yohanes E. & Zhu, Jiahua, 2025. "Financial forecasting in the lab and the field: Qualified professionals vs. smart students," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C).
  8. Timmermann, Allan & Elliott, Graham & Komunjer, Ivana, 2003. "Estimating Loss Function Parameters," CEPR Discussion Papers 3821, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Boum-Jong Choe, 1990. "Rational expectations and commodity price forecasts," Policy Research Working Paper Series 435, The World Bank.
  10. Graham, John R. & Harvey, Campbell R., 1996. "Market timing ability and volatility implied in investment newsletters' asset allocation recommendations," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 397-421, November.
  11. Silvija Vlah Jerić & Mihovil Anđelinović, 2019. "Evaluating Croatian stock index forecasts," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 1325-1339, April.
  12. Cheolbeom Park, 2006. "Rational Beliefs or Distorted Beliefs: The Equity Premium Puzzle and Micro Survey Data," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 72(3), pages 677-689, January.
  13. Prat, Georges, 2013. "Equity risk premium and time horizon: What do the U.S. secular data say?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 76-88.
  14. Yoichi Tsuchiya, 2021. "Crises, market shocks, and herding behavior in stock price forecasts," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(2), pages 919-945, August.
  15. Menzie Chinn & Jeffrey Frankel, 1991. "Patterns in Exchange Rate Forecasts for 25 Currencies," NBER Working Papers 3807, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Ronald MacDonald, 2000. "Expectations Formation and Risk in Three Financial Markets: Surveying What the Surveys Say," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(1), pages 69-100, February.
  17. Jonathan Skinner & Daniel Feenberg, 1990. "The Impact of the 1986 Tax Reform Act on Personal Saving," NBER Working Papers 3257, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Wolff, Christian & Verschoor, Willem F C & Jongen, Ron & Zwinkels, Remco C.J., 2008. "Dispersion of Beliefs in the Foreign Exchange Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 6738, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  19. Jongen, Ron & Verschoor, Willem F.C. & Wolff, Christian C.P., 2011. "Time-variation in term premia: International survey-based evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 605-622, June.
  20. Veress, Aron & Kaiser, Lars, 2017. "Forecasting quality of professionals: Does affiliation matter?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 159-168.
  21. Pierdzioch, Christian & Reitz, Stefan & Ruelke, Jan-Christoph, 2014. "Heterogeneous forecasters and nonlinear expectation formation in the US stock market," Kiel Working Papers 1947, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
  22. Boum-Jong Choe, 1990. "Commodity price forecasts and futures prices," Policy Research Working Paper Series 436, The World Bank.
  23. Dean Croushore, 1997. "The Livingston Survey: still useful after all these years," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Mar, pages 15-27.
  24. Timmermann, Allan & Patton, Andrew, 2003. "Properties of Optimal Forecasts," CEPR Discussion Papers 4037, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  25. Tahsina Haque Simu, 2012. "Randomness in CASPI (CSE All Share Price Index): An Empirical Study," Indian Journal of Commerce and Management Studies, Educational Research Multimedia & Publications,India, vol. 3(2), pages 01-05, May.
  26. Rama K. Malladi, 2024. "Application of Supervised Machine Learning Techniques to Forecast the COVID-19 U.S. Recession and Stock Market Crash," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 63(3), pages 1021-1045, March.
  27. Georges Prat, 1994. "La formation des anticipations boursières," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 112(1), pages 101-125.
  28. Ron Jongen & Willem F.C. Verschoor & Christian C.P. Wolff, 2008. "Foreign Exchange Rate Expectations: Survey And Synthesis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(1), pages 140-165, February.
  29. Wolff, Christian & Verschoor, Willem F C & Jongen, Ron, 2005. "Time Variation in Term Premia: International Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 4959, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  30. Paul Soderlind, 2010. "Predicting stock price movements: regressions versus economists," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(9), pages 869-874.
  31. Reitz, Stefan & Pierdzioch, Christian & Rülke, Jan-Christoph, 2015. "Nonlinear Expectation Formation in the U.S. Stock Market," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113210, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  32. Rangvid, Jesper & Schmeling, Maik & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2013. "What do professional forecasters' stock market expectations tell us about herding, information extraction and beauty contests?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 109-129.
  33. Pierdzioch, Christian & Reitz, Stefan & Ruelke, Jan-Christoph, 2015. "Nonlinear expectation formation in the U.S. stock market: Empirical evidence from the Livingston survey," Kiel Working Papers 1947 [rev.], Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
  34. Francesca Pancotto & Filippo Maria Pericoli & Marco Pistagnesi, 2013. "Inefficiency in Survey Exchange Rates Forecasts," Working Papers 1/13, Sapienza University of Rome, DISS.
  35. Manfred Gartner, 2010. "Predicting the presidential election cycle in US stock prices: guinea pigs versus the pros," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(18), pages 1759-1765.
  36. Pierdzioch, Christian & Rülke, Jan-Christoph, 2012. "Forecasting stock prices: Do forecasters herd?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 116(3), pages 326-329.
  37. Wassim Dbouk & Lawrence Kryzanowski, 2010. "Determinants of credit spread changes for the financial sector," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 27(1), pages 67-82, March.
  38. AlexanderJr., John C. & McElreath, Robert B., 1999. "Does education affect how well students forecast the market?," Financial Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 253-260.
  39. J. E. Wesen & V. VV. Vermehren & H. M. de Oliveira, 2015. "Adaptive Filter Design for Stock Market Prediction Using a Correlation-based Criterion," Papers 1501.07504, arXiv.org.
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