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Market Power, Survival and Accuracy of Predictions in Financial Markets


  • Patrick Leoni


This paper aims to show that the market selection hypothesis in finance is not solely driven by the competitiveness of such markets, as was originally claimed by Alchian [1] and Friedman [4]. Within a standard intertemporal General Equilibrium framework, we allow for an agent to have enough influence on financial markets to strategically affect prices of assets traded. We then show that, as in Sandroni [15], the agent� long-run consumption will vanish if she makes less accurate predictions than the market, and maintain her market power otherwise. We conclude that the Darwinian justification to this market selection is not the only explanation for the eventual domination of agents making the most accurate predictions. Rather, we claim that the origin of market selection, and in turn of the common prior assumption in asset pricing, is associated with the ability to foresee accurately market uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Patrick Leoni, "undated". "Market Power, Survival and Accuracy of Predictions in Financial Markets," IEW - Working Papers 216, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
  • Handle: RePEc:zur:iewwpx:216

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Jaskold Gabszewicz, Jean & Vial, Jean-Philippe, 1972. "Oligopoly "A la cournot" in a general equilibrium analysis," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 381-400, June.
    2. Lawrence Blume & David Easley, 2006. "If You're so Smart, why Aren't You Rich? Belief Selection in Complete and Incomplete Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(4), pages 929-966, July.
    3. Kevin Huang & Jan Werner, 2004. "Implementing Arrow-Debreu equilibria by trading infinitely-lived securities," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 24(3), pages 603-622, October.
    4. Hens, Thorsten & Reimann, Stefan & Vogt, Bodo, 2004. "Nash competitive equilibria and two-period fund separation," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-4), pages 321-346, June.
    5. Oliver D. Hart, 1979. "Monopolistic Competition in a Large Economy with Differentiated Commodities," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 46(1), pages 1-30.
    6. Hellwig, Martin F., 1980. "On the aggregation of information in competitive markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 477-498, June.
    7. Kurz, Mordecai, 1994. "On Rational Belief Equilibria," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 4(6), pages 859-876, October.
    8. Blume, Lawrence & Easley, David, 1992. "Evolution and market behavior," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 9-40, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Leoni, Patrick L., 2013. "Survival in Cournot games," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(5), pages 429-434.
    2. Patrick Leoni, 2012. "Rational expectations and monopolistic trades," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 107(2), pages 129-140, October.

    More about this item


    market imperfection; asset pricing; learning;

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • D43 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Oligopoly and Other Forms of Market Imperfection

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