Market Power, Survival and Accuracy of Predictions in Financial Markets
This paper aims to show that the market selection hypothesis in finance is not solely driven by the competitiveness of such markets, as was originally claimed by Alchian  and Friedman . Within a standard intertemporal General Equilibrium framework, we allow for an agent to have enough influence on financial markets to strategically affect prices of assets traded. We then show that, as in Sandroni , the agentï¿½ long-run consumption will vanish if she makes less accurate predictions than the market, and maintain her market power otherwise. We conclude that the Darwinian justification to this market selection is not the only explanation for the eventual domination of agents making the most accurate predictions. Rather, we claim that the origin of market selection, and in turn of the common prior assumption in asset pricing, is associated with the ability to foresee accurately market uncertainty.
|Date of creation:|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Schönberggasse 1, CH-8001 Zürich|
Phone: +41-1-634 21 37
Fax: +41-1-634 49 82
Web page: http://www.econ.uzh.ch/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- K. Huang & Z. Liu, .
"Implementing Arrow-Debreu equilibria by trading infinitely lived securities,"
2000-21, Utah State University, Department of Economics.
- Kevin Huang & Jan Werner, 2004. "Implementing Arrow-Debreu equilibria by trading infinitely-lived securities," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 24(3), pages 603-622, October.
- Kevin X. D. Huang & Jan Werner, 2000. "Implementing Arrow-Debreu Equilibria by Trading Infinitely-Lived Securities," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1708, Econometric Society.
- Kevin X. D. Huang & Jan Werner, 2002. "Implementing Arrow-Debreu equilibria by trading infinitely-lived securities," Research Working Paper RWP 02-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- JASKOLD GABSZEWICZ, Jean & VIAL, Jean-Philippe, .
"Oligopoly "à la Cournot" in a general equilibrium analysis,"
CORE Discussion Papers RP
106, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Jaskold Gabszewicz, Jean & Vial, Jean-Philippe, 1972. "Oligopoly "A la cournot" in a general equilibrium analysis," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 381-400, June.
- Blume, Lawrence & Easley, David, 1992. "Evolution and market behavior," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 9-40, October.
- Hens, Thorsten & Reimann, Stefan & Vogt, Bodo, 2004. "Nash competitive equilibria and two-period fund separation," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-4), pages 321-346, June.
- Kurz, Mordecai, 1994. "On Rational Belief Equilibria," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 4(6), pages 859-76, October.
- Larry Blume & David Easley, 2001.
"If You're So Smart, Why Aren't You Rich? Belief Selection in Complete and Incomplete Markets,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
1319, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Lawrence Blume & David Easley, 2006. "If You're so Smart, why Aren't You Rich? Belief Selection in Complete and Incomplete Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(4), pages 929-966, 07.
- Lawrence Blume & David Easley, 2001. "If You're So Smart, Why Aren't You Rich? Belief Selection in Complete and Incomplete Markets," Working Papers 01-06-031, Santa Fe Institute.
- Oliver D. Hart, 1979. "Monopolistic Competition in a Large Economy with Differentiated Commodities," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 46(1), pages 1-30.
- Hellwig, Martin F., 1980. "On the aggregation of information in competitive markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 477-498, June.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zur:iewwpx:216. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Marita Kieser)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.