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Market Power, Survival and Accuracy of Predictions in Financial Markets

  • Patarick Leoni

    ()

    (Economics Department, National University of Ireland, Maynooth)

In a standard General Equilibrium framework, we consider an agent strategically using her large volume of trade to influence asset prices to increase her consumption. We show that, as in Sandroni (2000) for the competitive case, if markets are dynamically complete and some general conditions on market preferences are met then this agent' long-run consumption will vanish if she makes less accurate predictions than the market, and will maintain her market power otherwise. We thus argue that the Market Selection Hypothesis extends to this situation of market power, in contrast to Alchian (1950) and Friedman (1953) who claimed that this selection was solely driven by the competitiveness of markets.

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File URL: http://repec.maynoothuniversity.ie/mayecw-files/N1701106.pdf
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Paper provided by Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting, National University of Ireland - Maynooth in its series Economics, Finance and Accounting Department Working Paper Series with number n1701106.

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Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:may:mayecw:n1701106
Contact details of provider: Postal: Maynooth, Co. Kildare
Phone: 353-1-7083728
Fax: 353-1-7083934
Web page: http://www.maynoothuniversity.ie/economics-finance-and-accounting

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  1. Kevin Huang & Jan Werner, 2004. "Implementing Arrow-Debreu equilibria by trading infinitely-lived securities," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 603-622, October.
  2. Kurz, Mordecai, 1994. "On Rational Belief Equilibria," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 4(6), pages 859-76, October.
  3. Lawrence Blume & David Easley, 2001. "If You're So Smart, Why Aren't You Rich? Belief Selection in Complete and Incomplete Markets," Working Papers 01-06-031, Santa Fe Institute.
  4. Hellwig, Martin F., 1980. "On the aggregation of information in competitive markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 477-498, June.
  5. Hens, Thorsten & Reimann, Stefan & Vogt, Bodo, 2004. "Nash competitive equilibria and two-period fund separation," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-4), pages 321-346, June.
  6. Blume, Lawrence & Easley, David, 1992. "Evolution and market behavior," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 9-40, October.
  7. Jaskold Gabszewicz, Jean & Vial, Jean-Philippe, 1972. "Oligopoly "A la cournot" in a general equilibrium analysis," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 381-400, June.
  8. Hart, Oliver D, 1979. "Monopolistic Competition in a Large Economy with Differentiated Commodities," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(1), pages 1-30, January.
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