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Market Power, Survival and Accuracy of Predictions in Financial Markets

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  • Patarick Leoni

    () (Economics Department, National University of Ireland, Maynooth)

Abstract

In a standard General Equilibrium framework, we consider an agent strategically using her large volume of trade to influence asset prices to increase her consumption. We show that, as in Sandroni (2000) for the competitive case, if markets are dynamically complete and some general conditions on market preferences are met then this agent' long-run consumption will vanish if she makes less accurate predictions than the market, and will maintain her market power otherwise. We thus argue that the Market Selection Hypothesis extends to this situation of market power, in contrast to Alchian (1950) and Friedman (1953) who claimed that this selection was solely driven by the competitiveness of markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Patarick Leoni, 2006. "Market Power, Survival and Accuracy of Predictions in Financial Markets," Economics, Finance and Accounting Department Working Paper Series n1701106, Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting, National University of Ireland - Maynooth.
  • Handle: RePEc:may:mayecw:n1701106
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jaskold Gabszewicz, Jean & Vial, Jean-Philippe, 1972. "Oligopoly "A la cournot" in a general equilibrium analysis," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 381-400, June.
    2. Kevin Huang & Jan Werner, 2004. "Implementing Arrow-Debreu equilibria by trading infinitely-lived securities," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 24(3), pages 603-622, October.
    3. Oliver D. Hart, 1979. "Monopolistic Competition in a Large Economy with Differentiated Commodities," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 46(1), pages 1-30.
    4. Hellwig, Martin F., 1980. "On the aggregation of information in competitive markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 477-498, June.
    5. Lawrence Blume & David Easley, 2006. "If You're so Smart, why Aren't You Rich? Belief Selection in Complete and Incomplete Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(4), pages 929-966, July.
    6. Kurz, Mordecai, 1994. "On Rational Belief Equilibria," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 4(6), pages 859-876, October.
    7. Hens, Thorsten & Reimann, Stefan & Vogt, Bodo, 2004. "Nash competitive equilibria and two-period fund separation," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-4), pages 321-346, June.
    8. Blume, Lawrence & Easley, David, 1992. "Evolution and market behavior," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 9-40, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Leoni, Patrick L., 2013. "Survival in Cournot games," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(5), pages 429-434.
    2. Patrick Leoni, 2012. "Rational expectations and monopolistic trades," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 107(2), pages 129-140, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Market selection hypothesis; Market power; Survival; Assset pricing;

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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