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The Aggregate Consequences of Tax Evasion

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  • Di Nola, Alessandro
  • Kocharkov, Georgi
  • Scholl, Almuth
  • Tkhir, Anna-Mariia

Abstract

There is a sizeable overall tax gap in the U.S., albeit tax noncompliance differs sharply across income types. While only small percentages of wages and salaries are underreported, the estimated misreporting rate of self-employment business income is substantial. This paper studies how tax evasion in the self-employment sector affects aggregate outcomes and inequality. To this end, we develop a dynamic general equilibrium model with incomplete markets in which heterogeneous agents choose between being a worker and being self-employed. Self-employed agents may hide a share of their business income but are confronted with the probability of being detected by the tax authority. Our model replicates important quantitative features of U.S. data, in particular, the misreporting rate, wealth inequality, and the firm size distribution. Our quantitative findings suggest that tax evasion induces self-employed businesses to stay small. In the aggregate, tax evasion increases the size but decreases the productivity of the self-employment sector. Moreover, it increases aggregate savings and reduces wealth inequality. We show that tax revenues follow a Laffer curve in the size of the tax evasion penalty.

Suggested Citation

  • Di Nola, Alessandro & Kocharkov, Georgi & Scholl, Almuth & Tkhir, Anna-Mariia, 2018. "The Aggregate Consequences of Tax Evasion," VfS Annual Conference 2018 (Freiburg, Breisgau): Digital Economy 181514, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc18:181514
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    1. The Aggregate Consequences of Tax Evasion
      by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog on 2018-08-03 16:23:38

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    Cited by:

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    3. Fernández-Bastidas, Rocío, 2023. "Entrepreneurship and tax evasion," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
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    5. Di Nola Alessandro & Kocharkov Georgi & Vasilev Aleksandar, 2019. "Envelope wages, hidden production and labor productivity," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 19(2), pages 1-30, June.
    6. Erosa, Andrés & Fuster, Luisa & Martinez, Tomás R., 2023. "Public financing with financial frictions and underground economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 20-36.
    7. Uribe-Terán, Carlos, 2021. "Higher taxes at the top? The role of tax avoidance," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    8. Raffaella Coppier & Elisabetta Michetti & Luisa Scaccia, 2022. "Industrial structure and evasion dynamics, is there any link?," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(4), pages 960-986, November.
    9. Bajaj, Ayushi & Damodaran, Nikhil, 2022. "Consumer payment choice and the heterogeneous impact of India’s demonetization," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    10. Francesco Menoncin & Andrea Modena & Luca Regis, 2022. "Dynamic Tax Evasion and Capital Misallocation in General Equilibrium," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 679 JEL Classification: E, Collegio Carlo Alberto.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Tax evasion; Self-Employment; Wealth inequality; Tax policy.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H24 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies
    • H25 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Business Taxes and Subsidies
    • H26 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Tax Evasion and Avoidance
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes

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