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An Experimental Study of Precautionary Bidding

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  • Kocher, Martin
  • Pahlke, Julius
  • Trautmann, Stefan

Abstract

Auctions often involve goods exhibiting a common knowledge ex-post risk. Precautionary bidding predicts that under expected utility, ex-post risk leads DARA bidders to reduce their bids by more than the appropriate risk premium. Because the degree of riskiness of the good, and bidders risk aversion, are difficult to observe in field settings, we conduct experimental auctions that allow to identify the precautionary premium directly. We find strong evidence for precautionary bidding, and bidders are better off when a risky object rather than an equally valued sure object is auctioned. The results are robust when controlling for potentially confounding decision biases. The current study provides the first empirical demonstration of precautionary motives in strategic settings.

Suggested Citation

  • Kocher, Martin & Pahlke, Julius & Trautmann, Stefan, 2013. "An Experimental Study of Precautionary Bidding," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79690, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc13:79690
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    Cited by:

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    3. Wenjun Wang, 2023. "Can experience mitigate precautionary bidding? Evidence from a quasi-experiment at an IPO auction," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 24(2), pages 148-163, March.
    4. Benjamin Balzer & Antonio Rosato, 2018. "Expectations-Based Loss Aversion in Common-Value Auctions: Extensive vs. Intensive Risk," Working Paper Series 50, Economics Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    5. Bruno Wichmann & Peter Boxall & Scott Wilson & Orsolya Pergery, 2017. "Auctioning Risky Conservation Contracts," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 68(4), pages 1111-1144, December.
    6. Sebastian Ebert & Diego C. Nocetti & Harris Schlesinger, 2018. "Greater Mutual Aggravation," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(6), pages 2809-2811, June.
    7. Benjamin Balzer & Antonio Rosato, 2021. "Expectations-Based Loss Aversion in Auctions with Interdependent Values: Extensive vs. Intensive Risk," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(2), pages 1056-1074, February.
    8. Trautmann, Stefan T. & Kuilen, Gijs van de, 2018. "Higher order risk attitudes: A review of experimental evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 108-124.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C91 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior
    • D44 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Auctions
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty

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