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Measuring Vulnerability to Poverty Using Long-Term Panel Data

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  • Landau, Katja
  • Klasen, Stephan
  • Zucchini, Walter

Abstract

We investigate the accuracy of ex ante assessments of vulnerability to poverty using cross-sectional data and panel data. We use long-term panel data from Germany and apply different regression models, based on household covariates and previous-year equivalence income, to classify a household as vulnerable or not. Predictive performance is assessed using the Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC), which takes account of false positive as well as true positive rates. Estimates based on cross-sectional data are much less accurate than those based on panel data, but for Germany, the accuracy of vulnerability predictions is limited even when panel data are used. In part this low accuracy is due to low poverty incidence and high mobility.

Suggested Citation

  • Landau, Katja & Klasen, Stephan & Zucchini, Walter, 2012. "Measuring Vulnerability to Poverty Using Long-Term Panel Data," Annual Conference 2012 (Goettingen): New Approaches and Challenges for the Labor Market of the 21st Century 66057, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc12:66057
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Klasen, Stephan & Meyer, Katrin M. & Dislich, Claudia & Euler, Michael & Faust, Heiko & Gatto, Marcel & Hettig, Elisabeth & Melati, Dian N. & Jaya, I. Nengah Surati & Otten, Fenna & Pérez-Cruzado, Cés, 2016. "Economic and ecological trade-offs of agricultural specialization at different spatial scales," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 111-120.
    2. Stephan Klasen & Simon Lange, 2015. "Accuracy and Poverty Impacts of Proxy Means-Tested Transfers: An Empirical Assessment for Bolivia," Courant Research Centre: Poverty, Equity and Growth - Discussion Papers 164, Courant Research Centre PEG.
    3. Martina Celidoni, 2015. "Decomposing Vulnerability to Poverty," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 61(1), pages 59-74, March.
    4. Stephan Klasen & Simon Lange, 2015. "Targeting Performance and Poverty Effects of Proxy Means-Tested Transfers: Trade-offs and Challenges," Ibero America Institute for Econ. Research (IAI) Discussion Papers 231, Ibero-America Institute for Economic Research.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty

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