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Ehrbarer Staat? Die Generationenbilanz. Update 2018: Grosse Koalition, grosse Kosten

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  • Bahnsen, Lewe
  • Manthei, Gerrit
  • Raffelhüschen, Bernd

Abstract

Deutschlands Nachhaltigkeitslücke aus expliziten und impliziten Staatsschulden ist auf 200 % des Bruttoinlandsprodukts (BIP) gesunken (Update 2017: 224 % des BIP). In absoluten Zahlen entspricht dies einem Gesamtschuldenstand der öffentlichen Hand von 6,3 Billionen Euro. Der größere Teil entfällt dabei nach wie vor auf die implizite, d.h. heute noch nicht direkt sichtbare Staatsschuld. Sie beträgt 132 % des BIP (umgerechnet 4,1 Billionen Euro). Dahinter verbergen sich alle durch das heutige Steuer- und Abgabenniveau nicht gedeckten staatlichen Leistungsversprechen für die Zukunft, insbesondere der Sozialversicherungen. Mit 68 % des BIP entfällt der kleinere Teil der Nachhaltigkeitslücke auf die explizite, schon heute sichtbare und offiziell ausgewiesene Staatsverschuldung. Zu diesen Ergebnissen kommt die aktuelle Generationenbilanz für Deutschland, die von Prof. Dr. Bernd Raffelhüschen, Vorstandsmitglied der Stiftung Marktwirtschaft und Leiter des Forschungszentrums Generationenverträge der Albert-Ludwigs-Universität Freiburg, am 19. Juni 2018 in Berlin im Rahmen eines Pressegesprächs vorgestellt wurde. Neben der aktualisierten Berechnung der deutschen Nachhaltigkeitslücke stehen ausgewählte Vereinbarungen des Koalitionsvertrages der seit dem Frühjahr 2018 amtierenden Bundesregierung sowie deren mögliche fiskalische Auswirkungen im Fokus der diesjährigen Analyse. Die Ergebnisse sollten als Mahnung verstanden werden, den intergenerativen Auswirkungen politischer Maßnahmen mehr Aufmerksamkeit zu schenken und sich mit Nachdruck dem Abbau der Nachhaltigkeitslücke zu widmen.

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  • Bahnsen, Lewe & Manthei, Gerrit & Raffelhüschen, Bernd, 2018. "Ehrbarer Staat? Die Generationenbilanz. Update 2018: Grosse Koalition, grosse Kosten," Argumente zur Marktwirtschaft und Politik 142, Stiftung Marktwirtschaft / The Market Economy Foundation, Berlin.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:smwarg:142
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    1. Alan J. Auerbach & Jagadeesh Gokhale & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1991. "Generational Accounts: A Meaningful Alternative to Deficit Accounting," NBER Chapters, in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 5, pages 55-110, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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