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Bayesian estimation and model selection in the generalised stochastic unit root model

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  • Yang, Fuyu
  • Leon-Gonzalez, Roberto

Abstract

We develop Bayesian techniques for estimation and model comparison in a novel Generalised Stochastic Unit Root (GSTUR) model. This allows us to investigate the presence of a deterministic time trend in economic series, while allowing the degree of persistence to change over time. In particular the model allows for shifts from stationarity I(0) to nonstationarity I(1) or vice versa. The empirical analysis demonstrates that the GSTUR model provides new insights on the properties of some macroeconomic time series such as stock market indices, inflation and exchange rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Yang, Fuyu & Leon-Gonzalez, Roberto, 2010. "Bayesian estimation and model selection in the generalised stochastic unit root model," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2010-006, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb649:sfb649dp2010-006
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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