Trending Time-Varying Coefficient Models With Serially Correlated Errors
In this paper we study time-varying coefficient models with time trend function and serially correlated errors to characterize nonlinear, nonstationary and trending phenomenon in time series. Compared with the Nadaraya-Watson method, the local linear approach is developed to estimate the time trend and coefficient functions. The consistency of the proposed estimators is obtained without any specification of the error distribution and the asymptotic normality of the proposed estimators is established under the alpha-mixing conditions. The explicit expressions of the asymptotic bias and variance are given for both estimators. The asymptotic bias is just in a regular nonparametric form but the asymptotic variance is shared by parametric estimators. Also, the asymptotic behaviors at both interior and boundary points are studied for both estimators and it shows that two estimators share the exact same asymptotic properties at the interior points but not at the boundaries. Moreover, proposed are a new bandwidth selector based on the nonparametric version of the Akaike information criterion, a consistent estimator of the asymptotic variance, and a simple nonparametric version of bootstrap (i.e. wild bootstrap) test for testing the misspecification and stationarity. Finally, we conduct some Monte Carlo experiments to examine the finite sample performances of the proposed modeling procedures and test.
|Date of creation:||2003|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Spandauer Str. 1,10178 Berlin|
Web page: http://www.wiwi.hu-berlin.de/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Park, Joon Y. & Phillips, Peter C.B., 1999.
"Asymptotics For Nonlinear Transformations Of Integrated Time Series,"
Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(03), pages 269-298, June.
- Peter C.B. Phillips & Joon Y. Park, 1998. "Asymptotics for Nonlinear Transformations of Integrated Time Series," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1182, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Granger, Clive W. J. & Terasvirta, Timo, 1993. "Modelling Non-Linear Economic Relationships," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198773207, December.
- Pagan,Adrian & Ullah,Aman, 1999.
Cambridge University Press, number 9780521355643, October.
- Zongwu Cai, 2002. "A two-stage approach to additive time series models," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 56(4), pages 415-433.
- Roussas, George G. & Tran, Lanh T. & Ioannides, D. A., 1992. "Fixed design regression for time series: Asymptotic normality," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 262-291, February.
- Peter C.B. Phillips, 2000.
"Trending Time Series and Macroeconomic Activity: Some Present and Future Challenges,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
1264, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Phillips, Peter C. B., 2001. "Trending time series and macroeconomic activity: Some present and future challenges," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 100(1), pages 21-27, January.
- Yoosoon Chang & Joon Y. Park & Peter C.B. Phillips, 1999.
"Nonlinear Econometric Models with Cointegrated and Deterministically Trending Regressors,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
1245, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Yoosoon Chang & Joon Y. Park & Peter C. B. Phillips, 2001. "Nonlinear econometric models with cointegrated and deterministically trending regressors," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 4(1), pages 1-36.
- Roussas, George G., 1989. "Consistent regression estimation with fixed design points under dependence conditions," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 41-50, May.
- Tschernig, Rolf & Yang, Lijian, 1997. "Nonparametric lag selection for time series," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1997,59, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb373:20037. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - German National Library of Economics)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.