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Impacts of anticipatory cash transfers in the context of weather disasters

Author

Listed:
  • Mogge, Lukas
  • Roeckert, Julian
  • Krähnert, Kati

Abstract

Anticipatory humanitarian assistance is a novel approach to aid in the context of weather disasters, drawing on meteorological forecasts. Using a randomized study design, we analyze the impact of anticipatory cash transfers distributed to pastoralist households in Mongolia during an extreme winter event. We do not find overall effects on livestock assets, income, investments, or consumption across the study population. No heterogenous effects are found for different levels of disaster intensity. However, there is robust evidence that cash transfers benefited households with lower pre-treatment wealth. The paper concludes by highlighting practical challenges in evaluating (anticipatory) humanitarian interventions.

Suggested Citation

  • Mogge, Lukas & Roeckert, Julian & Krähnert, Kati, 2024. "Impacts of anticipatory cash transfers in the context of weather disasters," Ruhr Economic Papers 1065, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:rwirep:282997
    DOI: 10.4419/96973236
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jyotsna Puri & Anastasia Aladysheva & Vegard Iversen & Yashodhan Ghorpade & Tilman Brück, 2017. "Can rigorous impact evaluations improve humanitarian assistance?," Journal of Development Effectiveness, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(4), pages 519-542, October.
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    4. Sarah Baird & Craig McIntosh & Berk Özler, 2011. "Cash or Condition? Evidence from a Cash Transfer Experiment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 126(4), pages 1709-1753.
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    6. David K. Evans & Anna Popova, 2017. "Cash Transfers and Temptation Goods," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 65(2), pages 189-221.
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    8. Fluhrer, Svenja & Kraehnert, Kati, 2022. "Sitting in the same boat: Subjective well-being and social comparison after an extreme weather event," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    9. Johannes Haushofer & Jeremy Shapiro, 2016. "The Short-term Impact of Unconditional Cash Transfers to the Poor: ExperimentalEvidence from Kenya," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1973-2042.
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    11. de Leon, Fernanda L. Lopez & Malde, Bansi & McQuillin, Ben, 2023. "The effects of emergency government cash transfers on beliefs and behaviours during the COVID pandemic: Evidence from Brazil," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 208(C), pages 140-155.
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    Cited by:

    1. Niazi, Kamran & Poudel, Dixit & Burrone, Sara & Bologna, Giulio & Lombardi, Niccolo & Scognamillo, Antonio, 2026. "Does Anticipatory Cash Transfers Help? Quasi-Experimental Evidence from Somalia," 2026 Annual Meeting, July 26 - 28, 2026, Kansas City, Missouri 404575, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

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    JEL classification:

    • D61 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Allocative Efficiency; Cost-Benefit Analysis
    • O12 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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