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Impacts of anticipatory cash transfers in the context of weather disasters

Author

Listed:
  • Mogge, Lukas
  • Roeckert, Julian
  • Krähnert, Kati

Abstract

Anticipatory humanitarian assistance is a novel approach to aid in the context of weather disasters, drawing on meteorological forecasts. Using a randomized study design, we analyze the impact of anticipatory cash transfers distributed to pastoralist households in Mongolia during an extreme winter event. We do not find overall effects on livestock assets, income, investments, or consumption across the study population. No heterogenous effects are found for different levels of disaster intensity. However, there is robust evidence that cash transfers benefited households with lower pre-treatment wealth. The paper concludes by highlighting practical challenges in evaluating (anticipatory) humanitarian interventions.

Suggested Citation

  • Mogge, Lukas & Roeckert, Julian & Krähnert, Kati, 2024. "Impacts of anticipatory cash transfers in the context of weather disasters," Ruhr Economic Papers 1065, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:rwirep:282997
    DOI: 10.4419/96973236
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fluhrer, Svenja & Kraehnert, Kati, 2022. "Sitting in the same boat: Subjective well-being and social comparison after an extreme weather event," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    2. Jyotsna Puri & Anastasia Aladysheva & Vegard Iversen & Yashodhan Ghorpade & Tilman Brück, 2017. "Can rigorous impact evaluations improve humanitarian assistance?," Journal of Development Effectiveness, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(4), pages 519-542, October.
    3. Valeria Groppo & Kati Kraehnert, 2017. "The impact of extreme weather events on education," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 30(2), pages 433-472, April.
    4. David K. Evans & Anna Popova, 2017. "Cash Transfers and Temptation Goods," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 65(2), pages 189-221.
    5. Julian Roeckert & Kati Kraehnert, 2022. "Extreme Weather Events and Internal Migration: Evidence from Mongolia," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 95-128, March.
    6. Sarah Baird & Craig McIntosh & Berk Özler, 2011. "Cash or Condition? Evidence from a Cash Transfer Experiment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 126(4), pages 1709-1753.
    7. Groppo, Valeria & Kraehnert, Kati, 2016. "Extreme Weather Events and Child Height: Evidence from Mongolia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 59-78.
    8. Imbens,Guido W. & Rubin,Donald B., 2015. "Causal Inference for Statistics, Social, and Biomedical Sciences," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521885881.
    9. de Leon, Fernanda L. Lopez & Malde, Bansi & McQuillin, Ben, 2023. "The effects of emergency government cash transfers on beliefs and behaviours during the COVID pandemic: Evidence from Brazil," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 208(C), pages 140-155.
    10. Abhijit V. Banerjee & Rema Hanna & Gabriel E. Kreindler & Benjamin A. Olken, 2017. "Debunking the Stereotype of the Lazy Welfare Recipient: Evidence from Cash Transfer Programs," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 32(2), pages 155-184.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Agriculture; anticipatory humanitarian assistance; extreme weather events; impact evaluation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D61 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Allocative Efficiency; Cost-Benefit Analysis
    • O12 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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