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Migratory movements in a disequilibrium macroeconometric model for West Germany

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  • Franz, Wolfgang
  • Oser, Ursula
  • Winker, Peter

Abstract

This paper attempts to evaluate economic effects of migration into Germany on the basis of a macroeconometric disequilibrium model. Germany has the advantage of having experience with migratory movements of guestworkers. There was a tremendous infiow of those workers in the sixties as well as an Immigration stop enacted in 1973. Both aspects are discussed in this study. Moreover, in recent years and in the foreseeable future a high inflow from Eastern Europe into Germany is expected. Extending the model until 1995 a Simulation experiment concerning this inflow is carried out, too. The upshot of the econometric exercise is that the effects of immigration on macroeconomic variables is "regime-specific", i.e., they depend on the type of disequilibrium prevailing on the goods and labor market.

Suggested Citation

  • Franz, Wolfgang & Oser, Ursula & Winker, Peter, 1993. "Migratory movements in a disequilibrium macroeconometric model for West Germany," Discussion Papers, Series II 202, University of Konstanz, Collaborative Research Centre (SFB) 178 "Internationalization of the Economy".
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:kondp2:202
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Franz, Wolfgang & Konig, Heinz, 1986. "The Nature and Causes of Unemployment in the Federal Republic of Germany since the 1970s: An Empirical Investigation," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 53(210(S)), pages 219-244, Supplemen.
    2. Franz, Wolfgang & Konig, Heinz, 1990. "A disequilibrium approach to unemployment in the Federal Republic of Germany," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 34(2-3), pages 413-422, May.
    3. Franz, Wolfgang, 1990. "Fiscal Policy in the Federal Republic of Germany," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 17-54.
    4. Franz, Wolfgang, 1991. "International migratory movements: The German experience," Discussion Papers, Series II 160, University of Konstanz, Collaborative Research Centre (SFB) 178 "Internationalization of the Economy".
    5. Oliver Jean Blanchard & Peter Diamond, 1989. "The Beveridge Curve," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 20(1), pages 1-76.
    6. Oded Stark, 1991. "The Migration of Labor," Blackwell Books, Wiley Blackwell, number 1557860300, June.
    7. Molho, Ian, 1986. "Theories of Migration: A Review," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 33(4), pages 396-419, November.
    8. Larry A. Sjaastad, 1970. "The Costs and Returns of Human Migration," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Harry W. Richardson (ed.), Regional Economics, chapter 9, pages 115-133, Palgrave Macmillan.
    9. Franz, Wolfgang, 1985. "An Economic Analysis of Female Work Participation, Education, and Fertility: Theory and Empirical Evidence for the Federal Republic of Germany," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 3(1), pages 218-234, January.
    10. McCall, B P & McCall, J J, 1987. "A Sequential Study of Migration and Job Search," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 5(4), pages 452-476, October.
    11. Pischke, Jörn-Steffen, 1992. "Assimilation and the earnings of guestworkers in Germany," ZEW Discussion Papers 92-17, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
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    Cited by:

    1. Schellhorn, Martin & Winker, Peter, 1994. "Stochastic simulations of a macroeconomic disequilibrium model for West Germany," Discussion Papers, Series II 235, University of Konstanz, Collaborative Research Centre (SFB) 178 "Internationalization of the Economy".
    2. Hughes Hallett, A. & Ma, Y. & Melitz, J., 1996. "Unification and the policy predicament in Germany," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 519-544, October.
    3. Smolny, Werner, 1995. "Employment and unemployment in Germany: Some results from a macroeconomic disequilibrium model," Discussion Papers, Series II 247, University of Konstanz, Collaborative Research Centre (SFB) 178 "Internationalization of the Economy".
    4. Leiner, Nadine & Meckl, Jürgen, 1994. "Internationale Migration und Einkommensverteilung: Eine außenhandelstheoretische Analyse," Discussion Papers, Series II 217, University of Konstanz, Collaborative Research Centre (SFB) 178 "Internationalization of the Economy".
    5. Franz, Wolfgang & Göggelmann, Klaus & Winker, Peter, 1996. "Ein makroökonometrisches Ungleichgewichtsmodell für die deutsche Volkswirtschaft 1960 bis 1994: Konzeption, Ergebnisse und Erfahrungen," Discussion Papers, Series II 327, University of Konstanz, Collaborative Research Centre (SFB) 178 "Internationalization of the Economy".
    6. Göggelmann, Klaus & Franz, Wolfgang & Winker, Peter, 1997. "Einige Wirkungen von steuerlichen Umfinanzierungsmaßnahmen in einem makroökonometrischen Ungleichgewichtsmodell für die westdeutsche Volkswirtschaft," ZEW Discussion Papers 97-19, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.

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