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Unification and the Policy Predicament in Germany

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  • Hughes Hallett, Andrew
  • Ma, Yue
  • Melitz, Jacques

Abstract

We argue that wages have increased so far ahead of labour productivity in East Germany as to produce a problem that will continue to hound German policy-makers for the next two decades. Despite rapid rates of capital accumulation (around 9%) and growth (around 5%) in East Germany over the coming ten years, our estimates show that even if wage catch-up decelerates greatly, as long as it continues, the rate of unemployment in the East will still be twice as high as in the West in another ten years. Alternatively, if wage discipline forces the Eastern unemployment rate to come down to the Western level, wage differentials will widen substantially over these next ten years. Thus serious problems loom ahead.

Suggested Citation

  • Hughes Hallett, Andrew & Ma, Yue & Melitz, Jacques, 1994. "Unification and the Policy Predicament in Germany," CEPR Discussion Papers 956, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:956
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    Cited by:

    1. Baker, Jessica & Carreras, Oriol & Kirby, Simon & Meaning, Jack & Piggott, Rebecca, 2016. "Modelling events: The short-term economic impact of leaving the EU," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 339-350.
    2. Noland, Marcus & Robinson, Sherman & Wang, Tao, 2000. "Modeling Korean Unification," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 400-421, June.
    3. Czarnitzki, Dirk, 2003. "Extent and Evolution of the Productivity Gap in Eastern Germany," ZEW Discussion Papers 03-25, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    4. Schmidt, Klaus-Dieter, 1996. "German unification: A progress report," Kiel Working Papers 722, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    5. Harrigan, Frank & McGregor, Peter G & Swales, J K, 1996. "The System-Wide Impact on the Recipient Region of a Regional Labour Subsidy," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 48(1), pages 105-133, January.
    6. Gerling, Katja, 1998. "Transfers and transition: The impact of government support on factor demand and production in Eastern Germany," Kiel Working Papers 878, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    7. Enzo Dia, 2004. "The bank’s risk insurance and the EMU," Working Papers 72, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised May 2004.
    8. Barrell Ray & Willem te Velde Dirk, 2000. "Catching-up of East German Labour Productivity in the 1990s," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 1(3), pages 271-297, August.
    9. John Driffill & Marcus Miller, 2003. "No Credit for Transition: European Institutions and German Unemployment," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 50(1), pages 41-60, February.
    10. Page, William, 2003. "Germany's Mezzogiorno revisited: Institutions, fiscal transfers and regional convergence," Research Notes 9, Deutsche Bank Research.
    11. Klodt, Henning, 1996. "West-Ost-Transfers und Strukturprobleme in den neuen Ländern," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 1677, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    12. Keller, Wolfgang, 2000. "From socialist showcase to Mezzogiorno? Lessons on the role of technical change from East Germany's post-World War II growth performance," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 485-514, December.
    13. Marcus Noland & Sherman Robinson & Ligang Liu, 1999. "The economics of korean unification," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(3), pages 255-299.
    14. Claro, Sebastian, 2006. "Supporting inefficient firms with capital subsidies: China and Germany in the 1990s," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 377-401, June.
    15. Demertzis, Maria & Hughes Hallett, Andrew & Schermer, Nicolien, 2009. "Europeanization or globalization? Transnational wage bargaining and the distribution of activity in European labor markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 177-192, August.
    16. Robert Brooks & Robert Faff & David Sokulsky, 2005. "The stock market impact of German reunification: international evidence," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(1), pages 31-42.
    17. Christian Thimann & Michael Breitner, 1995. "Eastern Germany and the conflict between wage adjustment, investment, and employment: A numerical analysis," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 131(3), pages 446-469, September.
    18. Fritz Breuss, 2006. "Warum wächst die Wirtschaft in Österreich rascher als in Deutschland?," WIFO Working Papers 280, WIFO.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F20 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - General
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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