IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/ifwkpb/78.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Passt die mittelfristige Steuerschätzung zur Finanzplanung der Länder?

Author

Listed:
  • Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens

Abstract

[Einleitung ...] Im folgenden Abschnitt wird zunächst auf die Entwicklung der Steuerquoten und den Einfluss von Steuerrechtsänderungen auf diese eingegangen. Die Analyse legt nahe, dass ein negativer Trend in den Steuerrechtsänderungen einen eigentlich positiven Trend der Steuerquote kompensiert. Im Anschluss wird dann anhand einer Panel-Trendregression aufgezeigt, dass die Ergebnisse des AKS systematisch in der Mittelfrist verzerrt sind. Das Testverfahren stellt eine Novität in der Literatur zur Evaluation des AKS dar. Aus den empirischen Ergebnissen und den institutionellen Gegebenheiten des AKS werden schließlich Empfehlungen für die mittelfristige Finanzplanung der Länder im Umgang mit den Prognosen des AKS hergeleitet.

Suggested Citation

  • Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens, 2014. "Passt die mittelfristige Steuerschätzung zur Finanzplanung der Länder?," Kiel Policy Brief 78, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkpb:78
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/101946/1/790608634.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Groll, Dominik & Kooths, Stefan & van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Kappler, Marcus, 2014. "Deutsche Konjunktur im Frühjahr 2014," Kiel Discussion Papers 536/537, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    2. Thiess Büttner & Björn Kauder, 2008. "Methods of Revenue Forecasting: An International Comparison," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 44, October.
    3. Friedrich Heinemann, 2006. "Planning or Propaganda? An Evaluation of Germany's Medium-term Budgetary Planning," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 62(4), pages 551-578, December.
    4. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Groll, Dominik & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Kappler, Marcus & Sachs, Andreas, 2011. "Deutsche Konjunktur im Herbst 2011," Kiel Discussion Papers 496/497, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    5. Ivo Bischoff & Wolfgang Gohout, 2010. "The political economy of tax projections," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 17(2), pages 133-150, April.
    6. Breuer Christian, 2015. "On the Rationality of Medium-Term Tax Revenue Forecasts: Evidence from Germany," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 235(1), pages 22-40, February.
    7. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Groll, Dominik & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Kappler, Marcus & Sachs, Andreas, 2013. "Deutsche Konjunktur im Frühjahr 2013," Kiel Discussion Papers 520/521, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    8. Thiess Büttner & Björn Kauder, 2008. "Steuerschätzung im internationalen Vergleich," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 61(14), pages 29-35, July.
    9. Plödt, Martin & Reicher, Claire, 2014. "Estimating simple fiscal policy reaction functions for the euro area countries," Kiel Working Papers 1899, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    10. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Groll, Dominik & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Kappler, Marcus & Sachs, Andreas, 2012. "Deutsche Konjunktur im Herbst 2012," Kiel Discussion Papers 512/513, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    11. Schwarzmüller, Tim & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Jannsen, Nils & Van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim & Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Groll, Dominik, 2011. "Weltkonjunktur im Herbst 2011," Kiel Discussion Papers 494/495, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    12. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Groll, Dominik & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan, 2014. "Deutsche Konjunktur im Winter 2014 - Konjunktur in Deutschland springt an [German Economy Winter 2014 - German economy gains momentum]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 2, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    13. Robert Lehmann, 2010. "Die Steuerschätzung in Deutschland - eine Erfolgsgeschichte?," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 17(03), pages 34-37, 06.
    14. Fox, Klaus-Peter, 2005. "50 Jahre Steuerschätzung: Die Notwendigkeit einer undankbaren Aufgabe," Wirtschaftsdienst – Zeitschrift für Wirtschaftspolitik (1949 - 2007), ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 85(4), pages 244-248.
    15. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens, 2014. "Konjunkturbereinigung der Länder: Eine Quasi-Echtzeitanalyse am Beispiel Schleswig-Holsteins," Kiel Discussion Papers 538, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Fichte, Damian & Warneke, Matthias, 2015. "Berücksichtigung der kalten Progression in den Steuerschätzungen," DSi kompakt 19, DSi - Deutsches Steuerzahlerinstitut des Bundes der Steuerzahler e.V., Berlin.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Beate Jochimsen & Robert Lehmann, 2017. "On the political economy of national tax revenue forecasts: evidence from OECD countries," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 170(3), pages 211-230, March.
    2. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Jannsen, Nils & Plödt, Martin & van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim & Schwarzmüller, Tim & Groll, Dominik & Kooths, Stefan, 2013. "Weltkonjunktur und deutsche Konjunktur im Sommer 2013," Kiel Discussion Papers 524/525, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    3. Beate Jochimsen & Robert Lehmann, 2017. "On the political economy of national tax revenue forecasts: evidence from OECD countries," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 170(3), pages 211-230, March.
    4. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Groll, Dominik & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Scheide, Joachim, 2014. "Deutsche Konjunktur im Herbst 2014," Kiel Discussion Papers 545/546, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    5. Ademmer Martin & Boysen-Hogrefe Jens, 2022. "The Impact of Forecast Errors on Fiscal Planning and Debt Accumulation," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 242(2), pages 171-190, April.
    6. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Jannsen, Nils & Plödt, Martin & van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim & Schwarzmüller, Tim & Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Groll, Dominik & Kooths, Stefan, 2014. "Weltkonjunktur und deutsche Konjunktur im Sommer 2014," Kiel Discussion Papers 539/540, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    7. Björn Kauder & Niklas Potrafke & Christoph Schinke, 2017. "Manipulating Fiscal Forecasts: Evidence from the German States," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 73(2), pages 213-236, June.
    8. Björn Kauder & Niklas Potrafke & Fabian Ruthardt & Christoph Schinke, 2017. "Beschönigen Landesregierungen fiskalische Kennziffern?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 70(06), pages 36-40, March.
    9. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Plödt, Martin & van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim & Schwarzmüller, Tim & Groll, Dominik & Kooths, Stefan, 2013. "Weltkonjunktur und deutsche Konjunktur im Winter 2013," Kiel Discussion Papers 530/531, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    10. Thiess Buettner & Bjoern Kauder, 2015. "Political biases despite external expert participation? An empirical analysis of tax revenue forecasts in Germany," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 164(3), pages 287-307, September.
    11. Marcell Göttert & Robert Lehmann, 2021. "Tax Revenue Forecast Errors: Wrong Predictions of the Tax Base or the Elasticity?," CESifo Working Paper Series 9148, CESifo.
    12. Jens Boysen-Hogrefe, 2015. "Konjunkturbereinigungsverfahren der Länder: Eine Quasi-Echtzeitanalyse am Beispiel Schleswig-Holsteins," AStA Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistisches Archiv, Springer;Deutsche Statistische Gesellschaft - German Statistical Society, vol. 9(1), pages 41-57, April.
    13. Breuer Christian, 2015. "On the Rationality of Medium-Term Tax Revenue Forecasts: Evidence from Germany," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 235(1), pages 22-40, February.
    14. Frank Bohn & Francisco José Veiga, 2019. "Political Budget Forecast Cycles," NIPE Working Papers 12/2019, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    15. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Jannsen, Nils & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Groll, Dominik & Kooths, Stefan & Plödt, Martin, 2015. "Mittelfristprojektion für Deutschland im Frühjahr 2015 - Deutschland mittelfristig in der Hochkonjunktur," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 6, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    16. Tschofenig, Hannes & Arumaithurai, Mayutan & Schulzrinne, Henning & Aboba, Bernard, 2010. "How secure is the next generation of IP-based emergency services architecture?," International Journal of Critical Infrastructure Protection, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 41-50.
    17. João Tovar Jalles, 2021. "Promised Fiscal Expansions and Politics: A European Union Assessment," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 63(1), pages 84-116, March.
    18. Heinemann, Friedrich & Janeba, Eckhard & Todtenhaupt, Maximilian, 2022. "Incumbency and expectations of fiscal rule compliance: Evidence from surveys of German policy makers," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    19. Lehmann Robert & Wollmershäuser Timo, 2020. "The macroeconomic projections of the German government: A comparison to an independent forecasting institution," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 21(2), pages 235-270, June.
    20. Frank Bohn, 2019. "Political budget cycles, incumbency advantage, and propaganda," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(1), pages 43-70, March.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkpb:78. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iwkiede.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.