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Passt die mittelfristige Steuerschätzung zur Finanzplanung der Länder?

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  • Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens

Abstract

[Einleitung ...] Im folgenden Abschnitt wird zunächst auf die Entwicklung der Steuerquoten und den Einfluss von Steuerrechtsänderungen auf diese eingegangen. Die Analyse legt nahe, dass ein negativer Trend in den Steuerrechtsänderungen einen eigentlich positiven Trend der Steuerquote kompensiert. Im Anschluss wird dann anhand einer Panel-Trendregression aufgezeigt, dass die Ergebnisse des AKS systematisch in der Mittelfrist verzerrt sind. Das Testverfahren stellt eine Novität in der Literatur zur Evaluation des AKS dar. Aus den empirischen Ergebnissen und den institutionellen Gegebenheiten des AKS werden schließlich Empfehlungen für die mittelfristige Finanzplanung der Länder im Umgang mit den Prognosen des AKS hergeleitet.

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  • Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens, 2014. "Passt die mittelfristige Steuerschätzung zur Finanzplanung der Länder?," Kiel Policy Brief 78, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkpb:78
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    1. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Groll, Dominik & Kooths, Stefan & van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Kappler, Marcus, 2014. "Deutsche Konjunktur im Frühjahr 2014," Kiel Discussion Papers 536/537, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
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    5. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Groll, Dominik & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Kappler, Marcus & Sachs, Andreas, 2013. "Deutsche Konjunktur im Frühjahr 2013," Kiel Discussion Papers 520/521, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
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    15. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens, 2014. "Konjunkturbereinigung der Länder: Eine Quasi-Echtzeitanalyse am Beispiel Schleswig-Holsteins," Kiel Discussion Papers 538, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
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    1. Fichte, Damian & Warneke, Matthias, 2015. "Berücksichtigung der kalten Progression in den Steuerschätzungen," DSi kompakt 19, DSi - Deutsches Steuerzahlerinstitut des Bundes der Steuerzahler e.V., Berlin.

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