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Die Finanzmarktreaktion auf das deutsche Fiskalpaket

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  • Petroulakis, Filippos
  • Saidi, Farzad

Abstract

• Diese Studie analysiert die Reaktionen der Kapitalmärkte auf Deutschlands jüngste Ankündigung, fiskalische Beschränkungen für Verteidigung und Ausgaben auf Länderebene zu lockern - und gleichzeitig ein 500-Milliarden-Euro-Investitionsfonds für Infrastruktur einzurichten. Insbesondere fragen wir, ob die steigenden Bund-Renditen Wachstumserwartungen oder Risikobedenken widerspiegeln. • Klare Evidenz für Wachstumserwartungen: Die steilere deutsche Zinsstrukturkurve, steigende Aktienkurse, die Aufwertung des Euro und stabile Credit-Default-Swap-Preise deuten darauf hin, dass die Märkte Deutschlands fiskalische Expansion eher als wachstumsfördernd denn als fiskalisch bedenklich interpretieren. • Der Kontrast zum Truss-Kwarteng-Haushalt im Vereinigten Königreich ist stark: Im Gegensatz zu den Turbulenzen nach dem britischen "Mini-Haushalt" 2022, die einen Ausverkauf über alle UK-Anlageklassen hinweg auslösten, wurde das deutsche Fiskal-Paket von den Märkten über verschiedene Anlageklassen hinweg positiv aufgenommen, was auf Vertrauen in die fiskalische Glaubwürdigkeit Deutschlands hindeutet.

Suggested Citation

  • Petroulakis, Filippos & Saidi, Farzad, 2025. "Die Finanzmarktreaktion auf das deutsche Fiskalpaket," Kiel Policy Brief 185, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkpb:313632
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Marek Jarociński & Peter Karadi, 2020. "Deconstructing Monetary Policy Surprises—The Role of Information Shocks," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 12(2), pages 1-43, April.
    2. Estrella, Arturo & Hardouvelis, Gikas A, 1991. "The Term Structure as a Predictor of Real Economic Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 555-576, June.
    3. Harvey, Campbell R., 1988. "The real term structure and consumption growth," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 305-333, December.
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    1. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Groll, Dominik & Hoffmann, Timo & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Krohn, Johanna & Reents, Jan & Schröder, Christian, 2025. "Deutsche Konjunktur im Frühjahr 2025: Finanzpolitik dreht mächtig auf," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 122, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).

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