IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/ifwkie/32977.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Schleppende Erholung der Konjunktur in Deutschland, kein Einbruch auf dem Arbeitsmarkt

Author

Listed:
  • Boss, Alfred
  • Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens
  • Dovern, Jonas
  • Groll, Dominik
  • Meier, Carsten-Patrick
  • van Roye, Björn
  • Scheide, Joachim

Abstract

Die Konjunktur in Deutschland hat sich stabilisiert. Die Produktion im zweiten Quartal 2009 verlief überraschend positiv. Im dritten Quartal dürfte sie deutlich angezogen haben. Alles in allem revidieren wir unsere Prognose für das Jahr 2009 nach oben. Wir rechnen nun mit einem Rückgang des realen Bruttoinlandsprodukts um 4,9 Prozent (Prognose vom Juni: - 6,0 Prozent). Für das Jahr 2010 erwarten wir nun einen Anstieg der Produktion um 1 Prozent (Juni: 0,4 Prozent). Die Lage auf dem Arbeitsmarkt wird sich weiter eintrüben, doch bleibt der Anstieg der Arbeitslosigkeit vergleichsweise moderat. Bis zum Ende des Jahres 2010 wird die Arbeitslosigkeit auf 4,2 Mill. Personen steigen.

Suggested Citation

  • Boss, Alfred & Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Dovern, Jonas & Groll, Dominik & Meier, Carsten-Patrick & van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim, 2009. "Schleppende Erholung der Konjunktur in Deutschland, kein Einbruch auf dem Arbeitsmarkt," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 32977, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkie:32977
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/32977/1/622678051.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Iacovone, Leonardo & Ferro, Esteban & Pereira-López, Mariana & Zavacka, Veronika, 2019. "Banking crises and exports: Lessons from the past," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 192-204.
    2. Wilfried Rickels & Linda Kleemann & Gernot Klepper & Sonja Peterson & Sebastian Petrick, 2010. "Konjunktur für den Klimaschutz? Klima- und Wachstumswirkung weltweiter Konjunkturprogramme," Aussenwirtschaft, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science, Swiss Institute for International Economics and Applied Economics Research, vol. 65(2), pages 129-166, June.
    3. Jonathan McCarthy, 2007. "Pass-Through of Exchange Rates and Import Prices to Domestic Inflation in Some Industrialized Economies," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 33(4), pages 511-537, Fall.
    4. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Jannsen, Nils & Scheide, Joachim & Boss, Alfred & Dovern, Jonas & Groll, Dominik & Meier, Carsten-Patrick & Van Roye, Björn, 2009. "Weltkonjunktur und deutsche Konjunktur im Herbst 2009," Kiel Discussion Papers 468/469, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    5. Dovern, Jonas & Meier, Carsten-Patrick, 2007. "Lohnanstieg und Konjunktur in Deutschland 2004 - 2008," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 4005, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    6. Jerome Adda & Russell Cooper, 2000. "Balladurette and Juppette: A Discrete Analysis of Scrapping Subsidies," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(4), pages 778-806, August.
    7. Boss, Alfred & Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Dovern, Jonas & Groll, Dominik & Meier, Carsten-Patrick & van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim, 2009. "Die deutsche Wirtschaft im Sog der Weltrezession," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 28657, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    8. Boss, Alfred & Klodt, Henning, 2009. "Mit dem Konjunkturpaket aus der Krise?," Kiel Policy Brief 2, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    9. Boss, Alfred & Klodt, Henning, 2009. "Mit dem Konjunkturpaket aus der Krise?," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 32855, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    10. Boss, Alfred & Dovern, Jonas & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Jannsen, Nils & Meier, Carsten-Patrick & van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim, 2009. "Ursachen der Wachstumsschwäche in Deutschland 1995-2005," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 32859, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    11. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Jannsen, Nils & Scheide, Joachim, 2009. "Weltwirtschaft expandiert wieder," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 32956, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    12. Iacovone, Leonardo & Javorcik, Beata S., 2008. "Multi-product exporters : diversification and micro-level dynamics," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4723, The World Bank.
    13. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Jannsen, Nils & Van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim & Boss, Alfred & Dovern, Jonas & Groll, Dominik & Meier, Carsten-Patrick, 2009. "Weltkonjunktur und deutsche Konjunktur im Sommer 2009," Kiel Discussion Papers 466/467, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Jannsen, Nils & van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim, 2010. "Erholung der Weltwirtschaft verliert an Schwung," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 45574, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    2. Wilfried Rickels & Linda Kleemann & Gernot Klepper & Sonja Peterson & Sebastian Petrick, 2010. "Konjunktur für den Klimaschutz? Klima- und Wachstumswirkung weltweiter Konjunkturprogramme," Aussenwirtschaft, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science, Swiss Institute for International Economics and Applied Economics Research, vol. 65(2), pages 129-166, June.
    3. Boss, Alfred, 2011. "Heimliche Steuererhöhungen vermeiden!," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 53148, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    4. Boss, Alfred & Dovern, Jonas & Groll, Dominik & Meier, Carsten-Patrick & van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim, 2009. "Deutschland: Stabilisierung der Produktion auf niedrigen Niveau," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 28847, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    5. Boss, Alfred, 2011. "Heimliche Steuererhöhungen vermeiden!," Kiel Policy Brief 41, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    6. Jannsen, Nils & Scheide, Joachim, 2010. "Growth patterns after the crisis: This time is not different," Kiel Policy Brief 22, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    7. Jannsen, Nils & Scheide, Joachim, 2010. "Growth patterns after the crisis: This time is not different," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 47873, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    8. Iacovone, Leonardo & Ferro, Esteban & Pereira-López, Mariana & Zavacka, Veronika, 2019. "Banking crises and exports: Lessons from the past," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 192-204.
    9. Victor Aguirregabiria, 2006. "Another Look at the Identification of Dynamic Discrete Decision Processes: With an Application to Retirement Behavior," 2006 Meeting Papers 169, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    10. Dr. Gregor Bäurle & Daniel Kaufmann, 2014. "Exchange rate and price dynamics in a small open economy - the role of the zero lower bound and monetary policy regimes," Working Papers 2014-10, Swiss National Bank.
    11. Muellbauer, John & Sinclair, Peter & Aron, Janine & Farrell, Greg, 2010. "Exchange Rate Pass-through and Monetary Policy in South Africa," CEPR Discussion Papers 8153, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Choudhri, Ehsan U. & Hakura, Dalia S., 2015. "The exchange rate pass-through to import and export prices: The role of nominal rigidities and currency choice," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 1-25.
    13. Hyeongwoo Kim & Ying Lin, 2018. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Consumer Prices and the Role of Energy Prices," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2018-05, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
    14. Stella Mendes Carneiro & Marcio Issao Nakane, 2020. "The perils of crossing borders: The financial constraints of Brazilian exporters during the 2009 Global Trade Collapse," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2020_01, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    15. Bhattacharya, Prasad S. & Thomakos, Dimitrios D., 2008. "Forecasting industry-level CPI and PPI inflation: Does exchange rate pass-through matter?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 134-150.
    16. Marc Auboin & Alisa DiCaprio, 2017. "Why Do Trade Finance Gaps Persist: Does it Matter for Trade and Development?," CESifo Working Paper Series 6425, CESifo.
    17. Boyan Jovanovic, 2009. "When should firms invest in old capital?," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 5(1), pages 107-123, March.
    18. Zeng, Shuai & Luo, Changyuan & Zhao, Laixun, 2023. "Destination trade credit and exports: Evidence from cross-country panel data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    19. Curzi, Daniele & Raimondi, Valentina & Olper, Alessandro, 2013. "Quality Upgrading, Competition and Trade Policy: Evidence from the Agri-Food Sector," 2013: Productivity and Its Impacts on Global Trade, June 2-4, 2013. Seville, Spain 152386, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    20. Ramon Caminal, 2016. "Dynamic Product Diversity," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(1), pages 1-26, March.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkie:32977. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iwkiede.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.