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Schleppende Erholung der Konjunktur in Deutschland, kein Einbruch auf dem Arbeitsmarkt

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Listed:
  • Boss, Alfred
  • Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens
  • Dovern, Jonas
  • Groll, Dominik
  • Meier, Carsten-Patrick
  • van Roye, Björn
  • Scheide, Joachim

Abstract

Die Konjunktur in Deutschland hat sich stabilisiert. Die Produktion im zweiten Quartal 2009 verlief überraschend positiv. Im dritten Quartal dürfte sie deutlich angezogen haben. Alles in allem revidieren wir unsere Prognose für das Jahr 2009 nach oben. Wir rechnen nun mit einem Rückgang des realen Bruttoinlandsprodukts um 4,9 Prozent (Prognose vom Juni: - 6,0 Prozent). Für das Jahr 2010 erwarten wir nun einen Anstieg der Produktion um 1 Prozent (Juni: 0,4 Prozent). Die Lage auf dem Arbeitsmarkt wird sich weiter eintrüben, doch bleibt der Anstieg der Arbeitslosigkeit vergleichsweise moderat. Bis zum Ende des Jahres 2010 wird die Arbeitslosigkeit auf 4,2 Mill. Personen steigen.

Suggested Citation

  • Boss, Alfred & Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Dovern, Jonas & Groll, Dominik & Meier, Carsten-Patrick & van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim, 2009. "Schleppende Erholung der Konjunktur in Deutschland, kein Einbruch auf dem Arbeitsmarkt," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 32977, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkie:32977
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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