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Real exchange rate dynamics in Macedonia: Old wisdoms and new insights


  • Bogoev, Jane
  • Bojceva Terzijan, Sultanija
  • Égert, Balázs
  • Petrovska, Magdalena


The ambition of this paper is to analyse real exchange rate dynamics in Macedonia relying on a highly disaggregated dataset. We complement the indirect evidence reported in Loko and Tuladhar (2005) and we provide direct evidence on the irrelevance of the Balassa-Samuelson effect for overall inflation via service prices in the CPI. Furthermore, we estimate variants of the BEER model. We show that alternative econometric techniques and data definitions bear an impact on the robustness of the estimation results. Overall, productivity, government consumption and the openness variables were found to be fairly robust in terms of sign and size. An increase/decrease in the productivity variables is associated with an appreciation/depreciation of the real effective exchange rate. Given that the B-S effect admittedly has a very limited role to play through nontradable prices in the CPI, this relationship could be explained by the (inverse) quality effect proposed by Loko and Tuladhar and, possibly in addition to that, by the nontradable component of tradable prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Bogoev, Jane & Bojceva Terzijan, Sultanija & Égert, Balázs & Petrovska, Magdalena, 2007. "Real exchange rate dynamics in Macedonia: Old wisdoms and new insights," Economics Discussion Papers 2007-37, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwedp:6164

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Egert, Balazs & Lommatzsch, Kirsten & Lahreche-Revil, Amina, 2006. "Real exchange rates in small open OECD and transition economies: Comparing apples with oranges?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(12), pages 3393-3406, December.
    2. László Halpern & Charles Wyplosz, 1997. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(4), pages 430-461, December.
    3. De Broeck, Mark & Slok, Torsten, 2006. "Interpreting real exchange rate movements in transition countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 368-383, March.
    4. Canzoneri, Matthew B. & Cumby, Robert E. & Diba, Behzad, 1999. "Relative labor productivity and the real exchange rate in the long run: evidence for a panel of OECD countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 245-266, April.
    5. Balázs Égert & László Halpern & Ronald MacDonald, 2006. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies: Taking Stock of the Issues ," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(2), pages 257-324, April.
    6. Bal??zs ??gert & Kirsten Lommatzsch, 2004. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in the Transition: The Tradable Price-Based Real Appreciation and Estimation Uncertainty," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 2004-676, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    7. Jan Bruha & Jiri Podpiera, 2006. "Transition Economy Convergence in a Two-Country Model," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 154, Society for Computational Economics.
    8. Lopez, Humberto & Molina, Luis & Bussolo, Maurizio, 2007. "Remittances and the real exchange rate," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4213, The World Bank.
    9. Ronald MacDonald & Cezary WÛjcik, 2004. "Catching up: The role of demand, supply and regulated price effects on the real exchange rates of four accession countries," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 12(1), pages 153-179, March.
    10. Brůha, Jan & Podpiera, Jiří, 2007. "Transition economy convergence in a two-country model: implications for monetary integration," Working Paper Series 740, European Central Bank.
    11. Marit Hinnosaar & Hannes Kaadu & Lenno Uuskula, 2005. "Estimating the equilibrium exchange rate of the Estonian kroon," Bank of Estonia Working Papers 2005-2, Bank of Estonia, revised 10 Oct 2005.
    12. Boileau Loko & Anita Tuladhar, 2005. "Labor Productivity and Real Exchange Rate; The Balassa-Samuelson Disconnect in the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia," IMF Working Papers 05/113, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Ronald MacDonald, 1997. "What Determines Real Exchange Rates? The Long and Short of it," IMF Working Papers 97/21, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Ronald MacDonald & Peter B. Clark, 1998. "Exchange Rates and Economic Fundamentals; A Methodological Comparison of BEERs and FEERs," IMF Working Papers 98/67, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Eva Gutierrez, 2006. "Export Performance and External Competitiveness in the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia," IMF Working Papers 06/261, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. International Monetary Fund, 2009. "Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia; Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 09/61, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Josheski, Dushko & Koteski, Cane, 2011. "Analysis of Purchasing power parity with data for Macedonia," MPRA Paper 32023, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2011.

    More about this item


    real exchange rate; Balassa-Samuelson; Macedonia;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • P17 - Economic Systems - - Capitalist Systems - - - Performance and Prospects

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