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Real exchange rate dynamics in Macedonia: Old wisdoms and new insights

Author

Listed:
  • Bogoev, Jane
  • Bojceva Terzijan, Sultanija
  • Égert, Balázs
  • Petrovska, Magdalena

Abstract

The ambition of this paper is to analyse real exchange rate dynamics in Macedonia relying on a highly disaggregated dataset. We complement the indirect evidence reported in Loko and Tuladhar (2005) and we provide direct evidence on the irrelevance of the Balassa-Samuelson effect for overall inflation via service prices in the CPI. Furthermore, we estimate variants of the BEER model. We show that alternative econometric techniques and data definitions bear an impact on the robustness of the estimation results. Overall, productivity, government consumption and the openness variables were found to be fairly robust in terms of sign and size. An increase/decrease in the productivity variables is associated with an appreciation/depreciation of the real effective exchange rate. Given that the B-S effect admittedly has a very limited role to play through nontradable prices in the CPI, this relationship could be explained by the (inverse) quality effect proposed by Loko and Tuladhar and, possibly in addition to that, by the nontradable component of tradable prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Bogoev, Jane & Bojceva Terzijan, Sultanija & Égert, Balázs & Petrovska, Magdalena, 2007. "Real exchange rate dynamics in Macedonia: Old wisdoms and new insights," Economics Discussion Papers 2007-37, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwedp:6164
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    Cited by:

    1. Bucevska Vesna & Mojanoski Goran, 2018. "Identifying the determinants that cause the value movements of currencies Denar, Kuna and Dinar," Croatian Review of Economic, Business and Social Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 4(2), pages 78-85, November.
    2. Josheski, Dushko & Koteski, Cane, 2011. "Analysis of Purchasing power parity with data for Macedonia," MPRA Paper 32023, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2011.
    3. International Monetary Fund, 2009. "Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2009/061, International Monetary Fund.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • P17 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Performance and Prospects

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