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Educational mismatches, technological change and unemployment: evidence from secondary and tertiary educated workers

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  • Esposito, Piero
  • Scicchitano, Sergio

Abstract

In this article, we investigate the role of several types of educational mismatch in explaining labour market transitions of workers with secondary and higher education. We focus on transitions from employment to unemployment and on job changes, to assess whether mismatch is a temporary or a permanent phenomenon. In the first case, as suggested by matching models, mismatch will be eliminated through job-to-job transitions. In the second case, it might be permanent and caused by employment discontinuity and deskilling processes. By using information from the Italian Survey of Professions (ICP) and the Survey on Labour Participation and Unemployment (PLUS), we calculate three measures of vertical mismatch. This allows comparing the outcomes from self-reported and revealed match measures in order to assess the robustness of the results. In addition, we use a measure of horizontal mismatch and evaluated the effect of Routine Bias Technical change (RBTC) in terms of unemployment risk, through a Routine Task Index (RTI) calculated on Italian data. Results indicate that mismatched workers are at risk of long-term unemployment. More specifically, among workers with higher education, the risk is due to mismatches in the field of studies whereas for secondary educated workers, over-education is the main cause of unemployment risk. The effect of the RTI is often not significant. This adds evidence to the problem of skill gap in Italy, as educational choices are not aligned to market needs. In this respect, both demand side and supply side policies are needed to allow firms to better use this human capital.

Suggested Citation

  • Esposito, Piero & Scicchitano, Sergio, 2020. "Educational mismatches, technological change and unemployment: evidence from secondary and tertiary educated workers," GLO Discussion Paper Series 465, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:glodps:465
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Mauro Caselli & Andrea Fracasso & Arianna Marcolin & Sergio Scicchitano, 2023. "The reassuring effect of firms' technological innovations on workers' job insecurity," International Journal of Manpower, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 45(4), pages 754-778, October.
    2. Bonacini, Luca & Gallo, Giovanni & Scicchitano, Sergio, 2021. "Sometimes you cannot make it on your own. How household background influences chances of success in Italy," GLO Discussion Paper Series 832, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    3. Mauro Caselli & Andrea Fracasso & Sergio Scicchitano & Silvio Traverso & Enrico Tundis, 2021. "Stop worrying and love the robot: An activity-based approach to assess the impact of robotization on employment dynamics," DEM Working Papers 2021/06, Department of Economics and Management.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    higher education; over-education; educational mismatch; routine bias technical change; unemployment; Italy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
    • J82 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Labor Standards - - - Labor Force Composition

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