Temperature Shocks and Protest Voting

How do voters respond to adverse climatic shocks? We study this question in India, where voters can cast a formal "None of the Above" (NOTA) ballot, allowing us to distinguish pure protest voting from directed electoral sanctioning. We combine assembly-constituency election data from 2013-2023 with highfrequency satellite-based data on temperature, precipitation, and agricultural productivity. We first show that high temperature exposure is negatively associated with satellite-measured agricultural productivity. Further, temperature shocks increase turnout, but do not increase NOTA vote shares. Instead, they reduce the vote shares of recontesting incumbents and ruling-party candidates. Regular degree days reduce both turnout and NOTA vote shares. Heterogeneity analyses show that agricultural dependence shapes the participation response, while unirrigated agriculture mediates NOTA responses. Overall, the results suggest that climate shocks mobilize voters and produce targeted electoral punishment, rather than leading voters to express generalized dissatisfaction through pure protest voting.