IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/cessdp/59.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

What is the effect of foreign direct investment inflows on economic growth in Pakistan? An empirical analysis in the light of religious sectarianism as catalyst for terrorism

Author

Listed:
  • Serfraz, Ayesha

Abstract

FDI inflows play an important role in bringing growth and development to emerging economies. Pakistan is also heavily dependent on FDI inflows for achieving a high growth rate but the main obstacle being faced by Pakistan is increasing number of terrorist activities. Although there is a vast literature available which throws light on FDI lead economic growth relation based on terrorism but this study will surely add new dimensions to the ever increasing research on overseas investment in developing countries, specifically Muslim countries, by correlating religious sectarianism with FDI and economic growth. The present study analyses the effect of religious sectarianism on the relationship between FDI inflows and economic growth in Pakistan for the period of 1989-2016. For measuring sectarian terrorism, data of sectarian violence in Pakistan is taken for carrying out the empirical analysis. This study explores an empirical relationship by testing a two-way causality between FDI inflows and economic growth of Pakistan, using the techniques of Johansen Cointegration and VECM model. For testing two way causality, two separate models are constructed; in the first model FDI inflows is taken as a dependent variable with economic growth and sectarian terrorism as independent variables. In second model, economic growth is taken as a dependent variable and FDI inflows along-with sectarian terrorism are taken as independent variables. ADF and KPSS tests have been applied to check the stationarity status of variables included in dataset. Later Johansen Cointegration test has been applied twice for checking the strength of Cointegration. The results of VECM and system equation model show that the first model is more practical as the F-statistic is strong in case of first model as compared to second model 2 but the purpose is achieved and a two-way causality has been confirmed by empirical analysis. Wald test and Granger Causality tests have been applied to check the exogeniety and causality respectively. The results show that FDI is not weakly exogenous whereas the second model concludes that GDP is weakly exogenous. The same results are confirmed by Granger Causality test.

Suggested Citation

  • Serfraz, Ayesha, 2017. "What is the effect of foreign direct investment inflows on economic growth in Pakistan? An empirical analysis in the light of religious sectarianism as catalyst for terrorism," Discussion Papers 59, University of Hamburg, Centre for Economic and Sociological Studies (CESS/ZÖSS).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:cessdp:59
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/156415/1/882706489.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Muhammad Zakaria, 2014. "Effects of Trade Liberalization on Exports, Imports and Trade Balance in Pakistan: A Time Series Analysis," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2014(1), pages 121-139.
    2. AKBAR Minhas & AKBAR Ahsan, 2015. "An Empirical Analysis Of Foreign Direct Investment In Pakistan," Studies in Business and Economics, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 10(1), pages 5-15, April.
    3. Abadie, Alberto & Gardeazabal, Javier, 2008. "Terrorism and the world economy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 1-27, January.
    4. Zeshan Atique & Mohsin Hasnain Ahmad & Usman Azhar, 2004. "The Impact of FDI on Economic Growth under Foreign Trade Regimes: A Case Study of Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 43(4), pages 707-718.
    5. Granger, Clive W J, 1986. "Developments in the Study of Cointegrated Economic Variables," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 213-228, August.
    6. Anderson, Gary M, 1988. "Mr. Smith and the Preachers: The Economics of Religion in the Wealth of Nations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(5), pages 1066-1088, October.
    7. Ismail, Aisha & Amjad, Shehla, 2014. "Determinants of terrorism in Pakistan: An empirical investigation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 320-331.
    8. Haider, Murtaza & Anwar, Amar, 2014. "Impact of terrorism on FDI flows to Pakistan," MPRA Paper 57165, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Daniel Meierrieks & Thomas Gries, 2013. "Causality between terrorism and economic growth," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 50(1), pages 91-104, January.
    10. Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad & Muhammad Zakaria & Mobeen Ur Rehman & Tanveer Ahmed & Bashir Ahmed Fida, 2016. "Relationship Between FDI, Terrorism and Economic Growth in Pakistan: Pre and Post 9/11 Analysis," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 127(1), pages 179-194, May.
    11. Tom Broekel & Thomas Brenner, 2011. "Regional factors and innovativeness: an empirical analysis of four German industries," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 47(1), pages 169-194, August.
    12. Quan Li & Drew Schaub, 2004. "Economic Globalization and Transnational Terrorism," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 48(2), pages 230-258, April.
    13. Zafar Iqbal & Ghulam Mustafa Zahid, 1998. "Macroeconomic Determinants of Economic Growth in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 37(2), pages 125-148.
    14. Kis-Katos, Krisztina & Liebert, Helge & Schulze, Günther G., 2011. "On the origin of domestic and international terrorism," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(S1), pages 17-36.
    15. Gudaro, Amna Muhammad & Chhapra, Imran Umer & Sheikh, Salman Ahmed, 2012. "Impact of foreign direct investment on economic growth: A case study of Pakistan," MPRA Paper 51069, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Juselius, Katarina, 2006. "The Cointegrated VAR Model: Methodology and Applications," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199285679.
    17. Sundas Rauf & Rashid Mehmood & Aisha Rauf & Shafaqat Mehmood, 2016. "Integrated Model to Measure the Impact of Terrorism and Political Stability on FDI Inflows: Empirical Study of Pakistan," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 8(4), pages 1-7, April.
    18. Johannes Mayr & Dirk Ulbricht, 2007. "Log versus level in VAR forecasting: 16 Million empirical answers - expect the unexpected," ifo Working Paper Series 42, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    19. Sultan Mehmood, 2014. "Terrorism and the macroeconomy: Evidence from Pakistan," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(5), pages 509-534, October.
    20. Caruso, Raul & Schneider, Friedrich, 2011. "The socio-economic determinants of terrorism and political violence in Western Europe (1994–2007)," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(S1), pages 37-49.
    21. Dr. Najia Saqib & Maryam Masnoon & Nabeel Rafique, 2013. "Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on Economic Growth of Pakistan," Advances in Management and Applied Economics, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 3(1), pages 1-3.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    FDI inflows; Economic Growth; Sectarianism; Johansen Cointegration; Pakistan;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:cessdp:59. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - German National Library of Economics). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/zohamde.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.