IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eme/ijdipp/ijdi-08-2016-0046.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Trade, aid and terror

Author

Listed:
  • Simplice Asongu
  • Oasis Kodila-Tedika

Abstract

Purpose - This paper aims to assess the role of foreign aid in reducing the hypothetically negative impact of terrorism on trade using a panel of 78 developing countries with data for the period 1984-2008. Design/methodology/approach - The empirical evidence is based on interactive generalised method of moment estimations with forward orthogonal deviations. Bilateral, multilateral and total aid dynamics are used, whereas terrorism entails domestic, transnational, unclear and total terrorism dynamics. Findings - The following findings have been established. First, while bilateral aid has no significant effect on trade, multilateral aid and total aid have positive impacts. Second total terrorism, domestic terrorism and transnational terrorism increase trade with increasing order of magnitude. Third, corresponding negative marginal effects on the interaction between foreign aid (bilateral and total) and terrorism display thresholds that are within range. Fourth, there is scant evidence of positive net effects. Overall, the findings broadly indicate that foreign aid is a necessary but not a sufficient policy tool for completely dampening the effects of terrorism on trade. Originality/value - There is a growing policy interest in the relationship between terrorism and international development outcomes.

Suggested Citation

  • Simplice Asongu & Oasis Kodila-Tedika, 2017. "Trade, aid and terror," International Journal of Development Issues, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 16(1), pages 2-24, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:eme:ijdipp:ijdi-08-2016-0046
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.emeraldinsight.com/10.1108/IJDI-08-2016-0046?utm_campaign=RePEc&WT.mc_id=RePEc
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Macartan Humphreys, 2005. "Natural Resources, Conflict, and Conflict Resolution," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 49(4), pages 508-537, August.
    2. Simplice A. Asongu & Oasis Kodila†Tedika, 2017. "Is Poverty in the African DNA (Gene)?," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 85(4), pages 533-552, December.
    3. Philip Michael Kargbo & Kunal Sen, 2014. "Aid Categories that Foster Pro‐Poor Growth: The Case of Sierra Leone," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 26(2), pages 416-429, June.
    4. Simplice A. Asongu & Jacinta C. Nwachukwu, 2016. "The role of lifelong learning on political stability and non violence: evidence from Africa," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 43(1), pages 141-164, January.
    5. Abadie, Alberto & Gardeazabal, Javier, 2008. "Terrorism and the world economy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 1-27, January.
    6. Seung-Whan Choi, 2010. "Fighting Terrorism through the Rule of Law?," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 54(6), pages 940-966, December.
    7. Thomas Gries & Tim Krieger & Daniel Meierrieks, 2011. "Causal Linkages Between Domestic Terrorism and Economic Growth," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(5), pages 493-508, June.
    8. Simplice A. Asongu & Uchenna R. Efobi & Ibukun Beecroft, 2015. "FDI, Aid, Terrorism: Conditional Threshold Evidence from Developing Countries," Research Africa Network Working Papers 15/019, Research Africa Network (RAN).
    9. Nitsch, Volker & Schumacher, Dieter, 2004. "Terrorism and international trade: an empirical investigation," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 423-433, June.
    10. Simplice Asongu, 2015. "On Taxation, Political Accountability and Foreign Aid: Empirics to a Celebrated Literature," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 83(2), pages 180-198, June.
    11. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
    12. Seung-Whan Choi, 2015. "Economic growth and terrorism: domestic, international, and suicide," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 67(1), pages 157-181.
    13. David Roodman, 2009. "How to do xtabond2: An introduction to difference and system GMM in Stata," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 9(1), pages 86-136, March.
    14. Simplice A. Asongu & Jacinta C. Nwachukwu, 2016. "Conditional linkages between iron ore exports, foreign aid and terrorism," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 29(2), pages 57-70, December.
    15. Daniel Meierrieks & Thomas Gries, 2013. "Causality between terrorism and economic growth," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 50(1), pages 91-104, January.
    16. Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad & Muhammad Zakaria & Mobeen Ur Rehman & Tanveer Ahmed & Bashir Ahmed Fida, 2016. "Relationship Between FDI, Terrorism and Economic Growth in Pakistan: Pre and Post 9/11 Analysis," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 127(1), pages 179-194, May.
    17. Simplice Asongu, 2014. "The Questionable Economics of Development Assistance in Africa: Hot-Fresh Evidence, 1996–2010," The Review of Black Political Economy, Springer;National Economic Association, vol. 41(4), pages 455-480, December.
    18. Krieger, Tim & Brockhoff, Sarah & Meierrieks, Daniel, 2012. "Great Expectations and Hard Times The (Nontrivial) Impact of Education on Domestic Terrorism," VfS Annual Conference 2012 (Goettingen): New Approaches and Challenges for the Labor Market of the 21st Century 62083, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    19. Uchenna R. Efobi & Simplice A. Asongu & Ibukun Beecroft, 2015. "Foreign Direct Investment, Aid and Terrorism: Empirical Insight Conditioned on Corruption Control," Research Africa Network Working Papers 15/007, Research Africa Network (RAN).
    20. James Piazza, 2011. "The illicit drug trade, counternarcotics strategies and terrorism," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 149(3), pages 297-314, December.
    21. Simplice A. Asongu & Gilbert A.A. Aminkeng, 2013. "The economic consequences of China--Africa relations: debunking myths in the debate," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(4), pages 261-277, November.
    22. Mirza, Daniel & Verdier, Thierry, 2008. "International trade, security and transnational terrorism: Theory and a survey of empirics," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 179-194, June.
    23. Brambor, Thomas & Clark, William Roberts & Golder, Matt, 2006. "Understanding Interaction Models: Improving Empirical Analyses," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(1), pages 63-82, January.
    24. Simplice A. Asongu & Jacinta C. Nwachukwu, 2016. "Revolution empirics: predicting the Arab Spring," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(2), pages 439-482, September.
    25. Simplice Asongu & Oasis Kodila-Tedika, 2016. "Fighting African conflicts and crimes: which governance tools matter?," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 43(5), pages 466-485, May.
    26. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Shabbir, Muhammad Shahbaz & Malik, Muhammad Nasir & Wolters, Mark Edward, 2013. "An analysis of a causal relationship between economic growth and terrorism in Pakistan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 21-29.
    27. Subhayu Bandyopadhyay & Todd Sandler & Javed Younas, 2014. "Foreign direct investment, aid, and terrorism," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 66(1), pages 25-50, January.
    28. Philip Oreopoulos & Kjell G. Salvanes, 2009. "How large are returns to schooling? Hint: Money isn't everything," NBER Working Papers 15339, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    29. David Kelsey & Sara Le Roux, 2017. "Dragon Slaying with Ambiguity: Theory and Experiments," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 19(1), pages 178-197, February.
    30. Dani Rodrik, 2008. "The Real Exchange Rate and Economic Growth," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 39(2 (Fall)), pages 365-439.
    31. Kwabena Gyimah-Brempong & Jeffrey S. Racine, 2014. "Aid and Economic Growth: A Robust Approach," Journal of African Development, African Finance and Economic Association (AFEA), vol. 16(1), pages 1-35.
    32. Badi H. Baltagi, 2008. "Forecasting with panel data," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 153-173.
    33. Uduak Akpan, 2014. "Impact of Regional Road Infrastructure Improvement on Intra-Regional Trade in ECOWAS," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 26(S1), pages 64-76, November.
    34. Nadir Öcal & Jülide Yildirim, 2010. "Regional effects of terrorism on economic growth in Turkey: A geographically weighted regression approach," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 47(4), pages 477-489, July.
    35. Simplice Asongu, 2014. "Globalization (fighting), corruption and development: How are these phenomena linearly and nonlinearly related in wealth effects?," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 41(3), pages 346-369, May.
    36. Mete Feridun & Muhammad Shahbaz, 2010. "Fighting Terrorism: Are Military Measures Effective? Empirical Evidence From Turkey," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(2), pages 193-205.
    37. David Kelsey & Sara le Roux, 2018. "Strategic ambiguity and decision-making: an experimental study," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 84(3), pages 387-404, May.
    38. World Bank, 2015. "World Development Indicators 2015," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 21634.
    39. Khusrav Gaibulloev & Todd Sandler, 2009. "The Impact Of Terrorism And Conflicts On Growth In Asia," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(3), pages 359-383, November.
    40. Nicholas Eubank, 2012. "Taxation, Political Accountability and Foreign Aid: Lessons from Somaliland," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(4), pages 465-480, March.
    41. Seung-Whan Choi & Idean Salehyan, 2013. "No Good Deed Goes Unpunished: Refugees, Humanitarian Aid, and Terrorism," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 30(1), pages 53-75, February.
    42. David Roodman, 2009. "A Note on the Theme of Too Many Instruments," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(1), pages 135-158, February.
    43. Elizabeth Asiedu, 2014. "Does Foreign Aid In Education Promote Economic Growth? Evidence From Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of African Development, African Finance and Economic Association (AFEA), vol. 16(1), pages 37-59.
    44. Juliet Elu & Gregory Price, 2010. "Does China Transfer Productivity Enhancing Technology to Sub-Saharan Africa? Evidence from Manufacturing Firms," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 22(S1), pages 587-598.
    45. José de Sousa & Daniel Mirza & Thierry Verdier, 2009. "Trade and the Spillovers of Transnational Terrorism," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 145(IV), pages 453-461, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Asongu, Simplice A & Odhiambo, Nicholas M, 2022. "The paradox of governance and natural resource rents in Sub-Saharan Africa," Working Papers 29008, University of South Africa, Department of Economics.
    2. Simplice A. Asongu & Joseph I. Uduji & Elda N. Okolo-Obasi, 2019. "Tourism and insecurity in the world," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 66(4), pages 453-472, December.
    3. Simplice A. Asongu & Joseph I. Uduji & Elda N. Okolo-Obasi, 2020. "Drivers and persistence of death in conflicts: global evidence," Working Papers 20/066, European Xtramile Centre of African Studies (EXCAS).
    4. Simplice A. Asongu & Joseph Nnanna & Rexon T. Nting, 2021. "A bad turn deserves another: linkages between terrorism, capital flight and industrialisation," Working Papers 21/011, European Xtramile Centre of African Studies (EXCAS).
    5. Simplice A. Asongu & Joseph Nnanna, 2019. "Dynamic Determinants of Access to Weapons: Global Evidence," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 54(4), pages 334-354, November.
    6. Simplice A. Asongu & Uchenna R. Efobi & Ibukun Beecroft, 2021. "Aid in Modulating the Impact of Terrorism on FDI: No Positive Thresholds, No Policy," Forum for Social Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(4), pages 432-456, October.
    7. Simplice Asongu & Vanessa Tchamyou & Ndemaze Asongu & Nina Tchamyou, 2017. "The Comparative African Economics of Inclusive Development and Military Expenditure in Fighting Terrorism," Journal of African Development, African Finance and Economic Association (AFEA), vol. 19(2), pages 77-91.
    8. Simplice A. Asongu & Vanessa S. Tchamyou & Ndemaze Asongu & Nina Tchamyou, 2018. "The Comparative African Economics of Governance in Fighting Terrorism," Research Africa Network Working Papers 18/055, Research Africa Network (RAN).
    9. Asongu, Simplice, 2019. "Natural Resource Exports, Foreign Aid and Terrorism," International Journal of Development and Conflict, Gokhale Institute of Politics and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 74-94.
    10. Simplice A. Asongu & Joseph I. Uduji & Elda N. Okolo-Obasi, 2019. "The Persistence of Weapons: Global Evidence," Working Papers of the African Governance and Development Institute. 19/068, African Governance and Development Institute..
    11. Asongu, Simplice & Acha-Anyi, Paul, 2019. "Global Tourism and Waves of Terror: Perspectives from Military Expenditure," MPRA Paper 101793, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Simplice A. Asongu & Jacinta C. Nwachukwu & Stella-Maris I. Orim & Chris Pyke, 2019. "Crime and Social Media," Research Africa Network Working Papers 19/003, Research Africa Network (RAN).
    13. Asongu, Simplice, 2019. "The persistence of global terrorism," MPRA Paper 101536, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Simplice A. Asongu & Stella-Maris I. Orim & Rexon T. Nting, 2019. "Terrorism and Social Media: Global Evidence," Journal of Global Information Technology Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(3), pages 208-228, July.
    15. Simplice A. Asongu & Joseph Nnanna, 2019. "Determinants of Access to Weapons: Global Evidence," CEREDEC Working Papers 19/008, Centre de Recherche pour le Développement Economique (CEREDEC).
    16. Simplice A. Asongu & Jacinta C. Nwachukwu, 2016. "Conditional linkages between iron ore exports, foreign aid and terrorism," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 29(2), pages 57-70, December.
    17. Asongu, Simplice A. & Uduji, Joseph I. & Okolo-Obasi, Elda N., 2019. "Homicide and social media: Global empirical evidence," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    18. Simplice A. Asongu & Oasis Kodila-Tedika, 2015. "On the Empirics of Institutions and Quality of Growth: Evidence for Developing Countries," Research Africa Network Working Papers 15/041, Research Africa Network (RAN).
    19. Simplice A. Asongu & Thales P. Yapatake Kossele & Joseph Nnanna, 2021. "Not all that glitters is gold: political stability and trade in Sub-Saharan Africa," Research Africa Network Working Papers 21/005, Research Africa Network (RAN).
    20. Samba Diop & Simplice A. Asongu & Vanessa S. Tchamyou, 2021. "Mitigating the Macroeconomic Impact of Severe Natural Disasters in Africa: Policy Synergies," Research Africa Network Working Papers 21/094, Research Africa Network (RAN).
    21. Simplice Asongu, 2017. "Persistence in Incarcerations: Global Comparative Evidence," Working Papers of the African Governance and Development Institute. 17/056, African Governance and Development Institute..
    22. Asongu, Simplice & Uduji, Joseph & Okolo-Obasi, Elda, 2020. "Political instability and political terror: global evidence on persistence," MPRA Paper 103147, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    23. Simplice A. Asongu & Jacinta C. Nwachukwu, 2018. "Mitigating externalities of terrorism on tourism: global evidence from police, security officers and armed service personnel," Research Africa Network Working Papers 18/036, Research Africa Network (RAN).
    24. Udi Joshua & Oladimeji M. Salami & Andrew A. Alola, 2020. "Toward the path of Economic Expansion in Nigeria: The Role of Trade Globalization," Working Papers 20/009, European Xtramile Centre of African Studies (EXCAS).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Asongu, Simplice, 2019. "Natural Resource Exports, Foreign Aid and Terrorism," International Journal of Development and Conflict, Gokhale Institute of Politics and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 74-94.
    2. Simplice A. Asongu & Jacinta C. Nwachukwu, 2016. "Conditional linkages between iron ore exports, foreign aid and terrorism," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 29(2), pages 57-70, December.
    3. Simplice A. ASONGU & Jacinta NWACHUKWU & Nicholas BIEKPE, 2019. "Foreign Aid, Terrorism And Growth: Conditional Evidence From Quantile Regression," Annals of Public and Cooperative Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 90(3), pages 457-486, September.
    4. Simplice A. Asongu & Jacinta C. Nwachukwu, 2017. "Fuel Exports, Aid and Terrorism," Research Africa Network Working Papers 17/016, Research Africa Network (RAN).
    5. Simplice Asongu & Ivo J. Leke, 2019. "Can Foreign Aid Dampen the Threat of Terrorism to International Trade? Evidence from 78 Developing Countries," Arthaniti: Journal of Economic Theory and Practice, , vol. 18(1), pages 32-55, June.
    6. Asongu, Simplice, 2019. "Natural Resource Exports, Foreign Aid and Terrorism," International Journal of Development and Conflict, Gokhale Institute of Politics and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 74-94.
    7. Simplice A. Asongu & Uchenna R. Efobi & Ibukun Beecroft, 2015. "FDI, Aid, Terrorism: Conditional Threshold Evidence from Developing Countries," Research Africa Network Working Papers 15/019, Research Africa Network (RAN).
    8. Simplice Asongu & John Ssozi, 2017. "When is Foreign Aid Effective in Fighting Terrorism? Threshold Evidence," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(3), pages 370-389, July.
    9. Simplice A. Asongu & Uchenna R. Efobi & Ibukun Beecroft, 2021. "Aid in Modulating the Impact of Terrorism on FDI: No Positive Thresholds, No Policy," Forum for Social Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(4), pages 432-456, October.
    10. Asongu, Simplice A. & Le Roux, Sara & Singh, Pritam, 2021. "Fighting terrorism in Africa: Complementarity between inclusive development, military expenditure and political stability," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(5), pages 897-922.
    11. Asongu, Simplice A. & Tchamyou, Vanessa S. & Minkoua N., Jules R. & Asongu, Ndemaze & Tchamyou, Nina P., 2018. "Fighting terrorism in Africa: Benchmarking policy harmonization," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 492(C), pages 1931-1957.
    12. Asongu Simplice & Nwachukwu Jacinta, 2018. "Fighting Terrorism: Empirics on Policy Harmonisation," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 19(3), pages 237-259, August.
    13. Simplice Asongu & Jacinta Nwachukwu & Sara le Roux, 2019. "The role of inclusive development and military expenditure in modulating the effect of terrorism on governance," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 46(3), pages 681-709, August.
    14. Asongu, Simplice A. & Amankwah-Amoah, Joseph, 2018. "Mitigating capital flight through military expenditure: Insight from 37 African countries," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 38-53.
    15. Asongu, Simplice & Uduji, Joseph & Okolo-Obasi, Elda, 2020. "Political instability and political terror: global evidence on persistence," MPRA Paper 103147, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Simplice A. Asongu & Joseph I. Uduji & Elda N. Okolo-Obasi, 2019. "Foreign aid volatility and lifelong learning," Research Africa Network Working Papers 19/086, Research Africa Network (RAN).
    17. Simplice A. Asongu & Jacinta C. Nwachukwu, 2017. "Foreign Aid and Inclusive Development: Updated Evidence from Africa, 2005–2012," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 98(1), pages 282-298, March.
    18. Simplice A. Asongu & Nicholas Biekpe, 2018. "Globalization and terror in Africa," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 156, pages 86-97.
    19. Simplice Asongu & Joseph Amankwah-Amoah, 2016. "Military expenditure, terrorism and capital flight: Insights from Africa," Working Papers of the African Governance and Development Institute. 16/018, African Governance and Development Institute..
    20. Simplice Asongu & Vanessa Tchamyou & Ndemaze Asongu & Nina Tchamyou, 2019. "Fighting terrorism in Africa: evidence from bundling and unbundling institutions," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(3), pages 883-933, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Development; Terrorism; Foreign aid; Trade openness; F40; F23; F35; O40;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General
    • F23 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Multinational Firms; International Business
    • F35 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Aid
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eme:ijdipp:ijdi-08-2016-0046. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: http://www.emerald.com .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Virginia Chapman (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.emerald.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.