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Die MIP-Indikatoren zur Analyse von Kern-Peripherie-Strukturen in der EU

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  • Wortmann, Marcus
  • Stahl, Markus

Abstract

Die andauernde Eurokrise hat deutlich gemacht, dass eine "One size fits all"-Geldpolitik für den Euroraum kaum noch möglich ist. Während die "GIIPS-Länder" der südlichen Peripherie (Griechenland, Irland, Italien, Portugal, Spanien) eine expansive Geldpolitik und einen schwachen Euro bräuchten, wäre für viele nördliche Euroländer das Gegenteil sinnvoll. Vielfach wird in Politik und Wissenschaft von einer vage definierten Nord-Süd-Teilung des Euroraums gesprochen. Ziel dieses Papiers ist es deshalb, ein präzises datenbasiertes Bild der europäischen Kern-Peripherie-Strukturen zu zeichnen. Durch die Anwendung verschiedener Clusteralgorithmen auf die Indikatoren des Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedures (MIP), welche explizit die Funktionsfähigkeit der Währungsunion abbilden sollen, kann eine relativ stabilitätsorientierte und homogene Kerngruppe identifiziert werden, die sich für eine gemeinsame Währung eignen würde. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass auch Länder wie Großbritannien, Dänemark und Schweden gut in einen solchen theoretisch spannungsfreien Euroraum passen würden. Die GIIPS-Staaten sowie Zypern und Kroatien werden hingegen ebenso wie die meisten Staaten der EU-Osterweiterung in jeweils eigene Cluster gruppiert, die sich hinsichtllich Wettbewerbsfähigkeit, Verschuldung und Wirtschaftsleistung deutlich von der Kerngruppe unterscheiden. Da der tatsächlich bestehende Euroraum allerdings aus Ländern aller Gruppen besteht und sich politisch auch keine andere Abgrenzung abzeichnet, werden einige wirtschaftspolitische Handlungsempfehlungen aufgezeigt, wie ein Abbau der Disparitäten innerhalb der Währungsunion erreicht werden könnte.

Suggested Citation

  • Wortmann, Marcus & Stahl, Markus, 2015. "Die MIP-Indikatoren zur Analyse von Kern-Peripherie-Strukturen in der EU," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 258, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:cegedp:258
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    EMU; MIP; economic integration; macroeconomic disparities; cluster analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C38 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Classification Methdos; Cluster Analysis; Principal Components; Factor Analysis
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F45 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Macroeconomic Issues of Monetary Unions
    • O57 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries

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