IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/bofecr/284721.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

How effective quantitative tightening can be with a higher-for-longer pledge?

Author

Listed:
  • Kortelainen, Mika

Abstract

We study the effect of quantitative tightening both without forward guidance and with higher for longer guidance. This is done by simulating quantitative tightening strategies in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model estimated with the euro area data. Quantitative tightening is quantified by a bond supply shock that raises the long-term term premium. Initially, we assume that quantitative tightening comes without forward guidance, meaning that central bank does not communicate any information regarding the future path of the policy rate. Subsequently, we consider quantitative tightening with forward guidance which is communicated through a higher for longer pledge. In addition, this higher for longer pledge is assumed to be fully credible. We find that if credible, quantitative tightening implemented with forward guidance in the form a higher for longer pledge can tighten monetary policy, albeit a little.

Suggested Citation

  • Kortelainen, Mika, 2024. "How effective quantitative tightening can be with a higher-for-longer pledge?," BoF Economics Review 1/2024, Bank of Finland.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bofecr:284721
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/284721/1/1882488377.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. ., 2003. "A Dynamic General Equilibrium Model of the Chinese Economy," Chapters, in: Economic Instruments of Pollution Control in an Imperfect World, chapter 6, pages 153-180, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Dimitri Vayanos & Jean‐Luc Vila, 2021. "A Preferred‐Habitat Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(1), pages 77-112, January.
    3. Christopher Martin & Costas Milas, 2012. "Quantitative easing: a sceptical survey," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 28(4), pages 750-764, WINTER.
    4. Wallace, Neil, 1981. "A Modigliani-Miller Theorem for Open-Market Operations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 267-274, June.
    5. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
    6. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2003. "An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1123-1175, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bletzinger, Tilman & von Thadden, Leopold, 2021. "Designing QE in a fiscally sound monetary union," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    2. Lindé, Jesper & Smets, Frank & Wouters, Rafael, 2016. "Challenges for Central Banks´ Macro Models," Working Paper Series 323, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    3. Marco Del Negro & Gauti Eggertsson & Andrea Ferrero & Nobuhiro Kiyotaki, 2017. "The Great Escape? A Quantitative Evaluation of the Fed's Liquidity Facilities," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(3), pages 824-857, March.
    4. Bletzinger, Tilman & von Thadden, Leopold, 2017. "Designing QE to overcome the lower bound constraint on interest rates in a fiscally sound monetary union," VfS Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking 168176, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    5. Ellison, Martin & Tischbirek, Andreas, 2014. "Unconventional government debt purchases as a supplement to conventional monetary policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 199-217.
    6. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2018_022 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Lindé, J. & Smets, F. & Wouters, R., 2016. "Challenges for Central Banks’ Macro Models," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2185-2262, Elsevier.
    8. Grzegorz Wesoƚowski, 2018. "Do long-term interest rates drive GDP and inflation in small open economies? Evidence from Poland," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(57), pages 6174-6192, December.
    9. Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Papadopoulou, Niki X., 2020. "On the credit and exchange rate channels of central bank asset purchases in a monetary union," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 502-533.
    10. Mr. Dominic Quint & Mr. Pau Rabanal, 2017. "Should Unconventional Monetary Policies Become Conventional?," IMF Working Papers 2017/085, International Monetary Fund.
    11. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2013_003 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Akkaya, Yildiz & Belfrage, Carl-Johan & Di Casola, Paola & Strid, Ingvar, 2023. "Effects of foreign and domestic central bank government bond purchases in a small open economy DSGE model: Evidence from Sweden before and during the coronavirus pandemic," Working Paper Series 421, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    13. Daniel Monteiro, 2023. "Macrofinancial Dynamics in a Monetary Union," European Economy - Discussion Papers 188, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    14. Ellison, Martin & Tischbirek, Andreas, 2014. "Unconventional government debt purchases as a supplement to conventional monetary policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 199-217.
    15. Yossi Yakhin, 2024. "Foreign Exchange Interventions in the New-Keynesian Model: Transmission, Policy, and Welfare," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2024.01, Bank of Israel.
    16. Rostagno, Massimo & Altavilla, Carlo & Carboni, Giacomo & Lemke, Wolfgang & Motto, Roberto & Saint Guilhem, Arthur & Yiangou, Jonathan, 2019. "A tale of two decades: the ECB’s monetary policy at 20," Working Paper Series 2346, European Central Bank.
    17. Arthur Galego Mendes & Tiago Couto Berriel, "undated". "Central Bank Balance Sheet, Liquidity Trap, and Quantitative Easing," Textos para discussão 638, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
    18. Gulan, Adam, 2018. "Paradise lost? A brief history of DSGE macroeconomics," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 22/2018, Bank of Finland.
    19. Gulan, Adam, 2018. "Paradise lost? A brief history of DSGE macroeconomics," Research Discussion Papers 22/2018, Bank of Finland.
    20. Harrison, Richard, 2024. "Optimal quantitative easing and tightening," Bank of England working papers 1063, Bank of England.
    21. Yong Ma & Yiqing Jiang, 2023. "Gradual financial integration and macroeconomic fluctuations in emerging market economies: evidence from China," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 18(2), pages 275-310, April.
    22. Choudhri, Ehsan U. & Hakura, Dalia S., 2015. "The exchange rate pass-through to import and export prices: The role of nominal rigidities and currency choice," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 1-25.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    monetary policy; quantitative tightening; forward guidance;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:bofecr:284721. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bofgvfi.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.