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On the behavioral antecedents of business cycle coherence in the euro area

Author

Listed:
  • Petar Sorić

    (Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb)

  • Ivana Lolić

    (Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb)

  • Marija Logarušić

    (Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb)

Abstract

Departing from the mainstream literature on European monetary integration, we acknowledge the interdependence of economic sentiment synchronization and business cycle co-movements for 17 individual European countries and the euro area (EA). Building upon both hard and soft data, we find that sentiment cycles are in fact the driving force behind general economic cycle synchronization. This finding is robust with respect to different synchronization indicators, different Granger causality test specifications, data frequencies (monthly vs. quarterly), and the targeted EA composition (EA11 vs. EA19). The latter is of particular importance, implying that recent EA enlargements have not decreased its homogeneity in this regard. Our results exhibit a certain degree of dependence upon the business cycle phase. The synchronization of 17 examined countries vis-a-vis the EA seems to be even more intensive in recessions than in expansions. In other words, common monetary policy of the ECB should be able to effectively act as a countercyclical tool when an individual national economy is facing a recession.

Suggested Citation

  • Petar Sorić & Ivana Lolić & Marija Logarušić, 2021. "On the behavioral antecedents of business cycle coherence in the euro area," EFZG Working Papers Series 2104, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb.
    • Handle: RePEc:zag:wpaper:2104
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    economic sentiment; business cycle synchronization; Optimum Currency Areas; Euro;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E71 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on the Macro Economy

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