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Decoding India’s low Covid-19 case fatality rate

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Listed:
  • Philip, Minu

    (New York University)

  • Ray, Debraj

    (New York University and University of Warwick)

  • Subramanian, S.

    (Independent researcher)

Abstract

India’s case fatality rate (CFR) under covid-19 is strikingly low, with a current level of around 1.7%. The world average rate is far higher. Several observers have noted that this difference is at least partly due to India’s younger age distribution. We use age-specific fatality rates from 17 comparison countries, coupled with India’s distribution of covid-19 cases, to “predict" India’s CFR. In most cases, those predictions yield even lower numbers, suggesting that India’s CFR is, if anything, too high rather than too low. We supplement the analysis with a decomposition exercise, and we additionally account for time lags between case incidence and death for a more relevant perspective under a growing pandemic. Our exercise underscores the importance of careful measurement and interpretation of the data, and emphasizes the dangers of a misplaced complacency that could arise from an exclusive concern with aggregate statistics such as the CFR.

Suggested Citation

  • Philip, Minu & Ray, Debraj & Subramanian, S., 2020. "Decoding India’s low Covid-19 case fatality rate," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1309, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:wrk:warwec:1309
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Christian Dudel & Timothy Riffe & Enrique Acosta & Alyson A. van Raalte & Cosmo Strozza & Mikko Myrskylä, 2020. "Monitoring trends and differences in COVID-19 case-fatality rates using decomposition methods: contributions of age structure and age-specific fatality," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2020-020, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    2. Debraj Ray & S. Subramanian, 2020. "India’s lockdown: an interim report," Indian Economic Review, Springer, vol. 55(1), pages 31-79, November.
    3. Ravi Kanbur & Diganta Mukherjee, 2007. "Premature Mortality And Poverty Measurement," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(4), pages 339-359, October.
    4. D. Jayaraj & S. Subramanian, 2009. "The wellbeing implications of a change in the sex-ratio of a population," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 33(1), pages 129-150, June.
    5. Anthony Shorrocks, 2013. "Decomposition procedures for distributional analysis: a unified framework based on the Shapley value," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 11(1), pages 99-126, March.
    6. Siwan Anderson & Debraj Ray, 2010. "Missing Women: Age and Disease," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 77(4), pages 1262-1300.
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    Cited by:

    1. Shah, Ajay, 2021. "Indian Health Policy in Light of COVID-19: The Puzzle of State Capacity and Institutional Design," India Policy Forum, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 17(1), pages 31-75.
    2. Vandana Tamrakar & Ankita Srivastava & Nandita Saikia & Mukesh C Parmar & Sudheer Kumar Shukla & Shewli Shabnam & Bandita Boro & Apala Saha & Benjamin Debbarma, 2021. "District level correlates of COVID-19 pandemic in India during March-October 2020," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(9), pages 1-17, September.
    3. John Creedy & S. Subramanian, 2022. "Mortality Comparisons ‘At a Glance’: A Mortality Concentration Curve and Decomposition Analysis for India," Sankhya B: The Indian Journal of Statistics, Springer;Indian Statistical Institute, vol. 84(2), pages 873-894, November.
    4. Shreekant Gupta, 2020. "Pandemics, COVID-19 and India," Indian Economic Review, Springer, vol. 55(1), pages 1-12, November.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General
    • O57 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries

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