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Decoding India’s low Covid-19 case fatality rate

Author

Listed:
  • Philip, Minu

    (New York University)

  • Ray, Debraj

    (: New York University and University of Warwick)

  • Subramanian, S.

    (Independent researcher)

Abstract

India’s case fatality rate (CFR) under covid-19 is strikingly low, with a current level of around 1.7%. The world average rate is far higher. Several observers have noted that this difference is at least partly due to India’s younger age distribution. We use age-specific fatality rates from 17 comparison countries, coupled with India’s distribution of covid-19 cases, to “predict" India’s CFR. In most cases, those predictions yield even lower numbers, suggesting that India’s CFR is, if anything, too high rather than too low. We supplement the analysis with a decomposition exercise, and we additionally account for time lags between case incidence and death for a more relevant perspective under a growing pandemic. Our exercise underscores the importance of careful measurement and interpretation of the data, and emphasizes the dangers of a misplaced complacency that could arise from an exclusive concern with aggregate statistics such as the CFR.

Suggested Citation

  • Philip, Minu & Ray, Debraj & Subramanian, S., 2020. "Decoding India’s low Covid-19 case fatality rate," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 516, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    • Handle: RePEc:cge:wacage:516
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    File URL: https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/research/centres/cage/manage/publications/wp.516.2020.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Vandana Tamrakar & Ankita Srivastava & Nandita Saikia & Mukesh C Parmar & Sudheer Kumar Shukla & Shewli Shabnam & Bandita Boro & Apala Saha & Benjamin Debbarma, 2021. "District level correlates of COVID-19 pandemic in India during March-October 2020," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(9), pages 1-17, September.
    2. John Creedy & S. Subramanian, 2023. "Mortality comparisons and age: a new mortality curve," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(1), pages 18-30, January.
    3. John Creedy & S. Subramanian, 2022. "Mortality Comparisons ‘At a Glance’: A Mortality Concentration Curve and Decomposition Analysis for India," Sankhya B: The Indian Journal of Statistics, Springer;Indian Statistical Institute, vol. 84(2), pages 873-894, November.
    4. Shreekant Gupta, 2020. "Pandemics, COVID-19 and India," Indian Economic Review, Springer, vol. 55(1), pages 1-12, November.
    5. Shah, Ajay, 2021. "Indian Health Policy in Light of COVID-19: The Puzzle of State Capacity and Institutional Design," India Policy Forum, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 17(1), pages 31-75.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General
    • O57 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries

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