IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wpa/wuwpur/0410006.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Forecasting the Manhattan office market with a simultaneous equation model

Author

Listed:
  • Franz Fuerst

    (CUNY Graduate Center, Center for Urban Research)

Abstract

In order to explore the predictability of the Manhattan office market, a three-stage simultaneous equation model is applied in this paper. The first stage incorporates the office space market in terms of occupied space and absorption of new space. The second stage captures the adjustment of office rents to changing market conditions and the third stage specifies the supply response to market signals in terms of construction of new office space. The standard simultaneous model is subsequently modified to account for the specific characteristics of the Manhattan office market. The results demonstrate that the Manhattan markets reacts efficiently and predictably to changes in market conditions, especially to the economic shock generated by the 9/11 attacks. The significance of the estimated parameters underscores the general validity and robustness of the simultaneous equation approach in modeling real estate markets. The modifications of the standard model, notably the inclusion of sublet space in the rent equation, contributed considerably to improving the explanatory power of the model. Eventually, the market implications of three exogenously defined employment forecasts are tested with the model.

Suggested Citation

  • Franz Fuerst, 2004. "Forecasting the Manhattan office market with a simultaneous equation model," Urban/Regional 0410006, EconWPA.
  • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpur:0410006
    Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 35
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://econwpa.repec.org/eps/urb/papers/0410/0410006.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Richard Arnott, 1997. "Rent Control," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 391., Boston College Department of Economics.
    2. Timothy W. Viezer, 1999. "Econometric Integration of Real Estate's Space and Capital Markets," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 18(3), pages 503-519.
    3. John S. Hekman, 1985. "Rental Price Adjustment and Investment in the Office Market," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 13(1), pages 32-47.
    4. Chen, Nai-fu, 1983. " Some Empirical Tests of the Theory of Arbitrage Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(5), pages 1393-1414, December.
    5. Patric H. Hendershott & Colin M. Lizieri & George A. Matysiak, 1999. "The Workings of the London Office Market," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 27(2), pages 365-387.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Richard Malle, 2010. "Un modèle à équations simultanées du cycle des bureaux en région parisienne," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 194(3), pages 93-108.
    2. Fuerst, Franz, 2006. "Predictable or Not? Forecasting Office Markets with a Simultaneous Equation Approach," MPRA Paper 5262, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Simultaneous equation model; real estate; forecasting; equilibrium rent and occupancy; construction activity;

    JEL classification:

    • R - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpur:0410006. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (EconWPA). General contact details of provider: http://econwpa.repec.org .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.