IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Forecasting the Manhattan office market with a simultaneous equation model

  • Franz Fuerst

    (CUNY Graduate Center, Center for Urban Research)

In order to explore the predictability of the Manhattan office market, a three-stage simultaneous equation model is applied in this paper. The first stage incorporates the office space market in terms of occupied space and absorption of new space. The second stage captures the adjustment of office rents to changing market conditions and the third stage specifies the supply response to market signals in terms of construction of new office space. The standard simultaneous model is subsequently modified to account for the specific characteristics of the Manhattan office market. The results demonstrate that the Manhattan markets reacts efficiently and predictably to changes in market conditions, especially to the economic shock generated by the 9/11 attacks. The significance of the estimated parameters underscores the general validity and robustness of the simultaneous equation approach in modeling real estate markets. The modifications of the standard model, notably the inclusion of sublet space in the rent equation, contributed considerably to improving the explanatory power of the model. Eventually, the market implications of three exogenously defined employment forecasts are tested with the model.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://econwpa.repec.org/eps/urb/papers/0410/0410006.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Urban/Regional with number 0410006.

as
in new window

Length: 35 pages
Date of creation: 22 Oct 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpur:0410006
Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 35
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://econwpa.repec.org

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Timothy W. Viezer, 1999. "Econometric Integration of Real Estate's Space and Capital Markets," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 18(3), pages 503-519.
  2. John S. Hekman, 1985. "Rental Price Adjustment and Investment in the Office Market," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 13(1), pages 32-47.
  3. Chen, Nai-fu, 1983. " Some Empirical Tests of the Theory of Arbitrage Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(5), pages 1393-1414, December.
  4. Richard Arnott, 1997. "Rent Control," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 391., Boston College Department of Economics.
  5. Patric H. Hendershott & Colin M. Lizieri & George A. Matysiak, 1999. "The Workings of the London Office Market," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 27(2), pages 365-387.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpur:0410006. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (EconWPA)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.