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Bets and bids: favorite-longshot bias and winner's curse

Author

Listed:
  • Jan Potters

    (Tilburg University)

  • Jorgen Wit

    (University of Amsterdam)

Abstract

A well-documented anomaly in racetrack betting is that the expected return per dollar bet on a horse increases with the probability of the horse winning. This socalled "favorite- longshot bias" is at odds with the presumptions of market efficiency. We offer a new solution to this much-debated puzzle which is related to another famous anomaly. We show that the bias can be explained by the same behavioral assumption that underlies the well-known "winner's curse" in common value auctions.

Suggested Citation

  • Jan Potters & Jorgen Wit, 1997. "Bets and bids: favorite-longshot bias and winner's curse," Microeconomics 9706003, EconWPA.
  • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpmi:9706003
    Note: Type of Document - WordPerfect; prepared on IBM PC; to print on HP Laserprinter 4; pages: 22 ; figures: included
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Plott, Charles R & Sunder, Shyam, 1988. "Rational Expectations and the Aggregation of Diverse Information in Laboratory Security Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(5), pages 1085-1118, September.
    2. Richard E. Quandt, 1986. "Betting and Equilibrium," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 101(1), pages 201-207.
    3. Milgrom, Paul R, 1981. "Rational Expectations, Information Acquisition, and Competitive Bidding," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 921-943, June.
    4. Radner, Roy, 1979. "Rational Expectations Equilibrium: Generic Existence and the Information Revealed by Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(3), pages 655-678, May.
    5. Copeland, Thomas E & Friedman, Daniel, 1987. " The Effect of Sequential Information Arrival on Asset Prices: An Experimental Study," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(3), pages 763-797, July.
    6. Ali, Mukhtar M, 1977. "Probability and Utility Estimates for Racetrack Bettors," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(4), pages 803-815, August.
    7. Kahneman, Daniel & Tversky, Amos, 1979. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(2), pages 263-291, March.
    8. Grossman, Sanford J & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1976. "Information and Competitive Price Systems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 66(2), pages 246-253, May.
    9. Kagel, John H. & Levin, Dan, 1986. "The Winner's Curse and Public Information in Common Value Auctions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(5), pages 894-920, December.
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    11. John H. Kagel & Colin M. Campbell & Dan Levin, 1999. "The Winner's Curse and Public Information in Common Value Auctions: Reply," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(1), pages 325-334, March.
    12. Heath, Chip & Tversky, Amos, 1991. "Preference and Belief: Ambiguity and Competence in Choice under Uncertainty," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 5-28, January.
    13. McAfee, R Preston & McMillan, John, 1987. "Auctions and Bidding," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 25(2), pages 699-738, June.
    14. Thaler, Richard H & Ziemba, William T, 1988. "Parimutuel Betting Markets: Racetracks and Lotteries," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 161-174, Spring.
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    Cited by:

    1. Feeney, Rob & King, Stephen P., 2001. "Sequential parimutuel games," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 165-173, August.
    2. Erik Eyster & Matthew Rabin, 2005. "Cursed Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 73(5), pages 1623-1672, September.
    3. Erhan Bayraktar & Alexander Munk, 2016. "High-Roller Impact: A Large Generalized Game Model of Parimutuel Wagering," Papers 1605.03653, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2017.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    parimutuel market; favorite-longshot bias;

    JEL classification:

    • D1 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior
    • D2 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations
    • D3 - Microeconomics - - Distribution
    • D4 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design

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