A Cointegration Analysis of the Long-Run Supply Response of Spanish Agriculture to the Common Agricultural Policy
Using cointegration techniques, we estimate two models that capture the long-term relationship between Spanish prices and agricultural production. The models were estimated over Spanish agricultural data from 1970 to 2000, a period spanning Spain’s implementation of the Common Agricultural Policy in 1986 and the application of the MacSharry Reforms in 1992. The models, as well as plausible counterfactual scenarios constructed to assess the production changes induced by the CAP, lead to three principal results. First, we find that Spanish agricultural output is responsive to agricultural prices. Second, we find that the MacSharry reforms have been instrumental in restraining agricultural production. Third, we find that Spanish agricultural output would have been higher if Spain had not applied the CAP. These results are important and have broad implications. First, they strengthen the position of those reformers both within and outside of Europe that argue for lower price supports as an appropriate policy for stemming European agricultural surpluses. Second, they indicate that recent EU reforms, which have in effect extended the MacSharry reforms, are appropriate measures for curbing European agricultural surpluses.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Bullock, David S. & Salhofer, Klaus, 2003. "Judging agricultural policies: a survey," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 28(3), pages 225-243, May.
- Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol & Smith, Richard J., 2000.
"Structural analysis of vector error correction models with exogenous I(1) variables,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 293-343, August.
- Pesaran, M. H. & Shin, Y. & Smith, R. J., 1997. "Structural Analysis of Vector Error Correction Models with Exogenous I(1) Variables," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9706, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Thirtle, C. & Townsend, R. & Zyl, J. van, 1998. "Testing the induced innovation hypothesis: an error correction model of South African agriculture," Agricultural Economics of Agricultural Economists, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 19(1-2), September.
- Xinshen Diao & Terry Roe & Agapi Somwaru, 2002.
"Developing Country Interests in Agricultural Reforms under the World Trade Organization,"
American Journal of Agricultural Economics,
Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 84(3), pages 782-790.
- Diao, Xinshen & Roe, Terry & Somwaru, Agapi, 2002. "Developing country interests in agricultural reforms under the World Trade Organization," TMD discussion papers 85, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
- Bullock, David S. & Salhofer, Klaus, 2003. "Judging agricultural policies: a survey," Agricultural Economics of Agricultural Economists, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 28(3), May.
- Harbo, Ingrid, et al, 1998. "Asymptotic Inference on Cointegrating Rank in Partial Systems," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 388-99, October.
- Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
- Phillips, P.C.B., 1986.
"Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression,"
Cahiers de recherche
8633, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-72, August.
- Thirtle, C. & Townsend, R. & van Zyl, J., 1998. "Testing the induced innovation hypothesis: an error correction model of South African agriculture," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 19(1-2), pages 145-157, September.
- Engle, Robert F., 1984. "Wald, likelihood ratio, and Lagrange multiplier tests in econometrics," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 13, pages 775-826 Elsevier.
- Dickey, David A & Pantula, Sastry G, 1987. "Determining the Ordering of Differencing in Autoregressive Processes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(4), pages 455-61, October.
- Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpit:0512014. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (EconWPA)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.