Causality Links Between Asset Prices And Cash Rate In Australia
This paper seeks to empirically investigate the causal linkages between asset prices and Australia’s cash rate. Quarterly data spanning the period 1980:1 and 2002:4 were employed in the analysis. The Johansen MLE multivariate co-integration procedure reveals that Australia’s cash rate and key determinants are co-integrated, and thus share a long-run equilibrium relationship. The Stock-Watson dynamic OLS model (DOLS), which is superior to a number of alternative estimators, finds empirical evidence of significant long run relationship between Australia’s cash rate and house prices, stock market prices, inflation rate and Australia’s real gross domestic product, and United States cash rate and real gross domestic product. The US cash rate Granger causes Australia’s cash rate. Australia’s stock market price Granger causes Australia’s house prices. The Granger causality test reveals a unidirectional causality from house prices to Australia’s cash rate, which is contrary to the conventional wisdom of a bi-directional causality running from the cash rate to house prices.
Volume (Year): 2 (2005)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.usc.es/economet/eaa.htm|
|Order Information:|| Web: http://www.usc.es/economet/info.htm Email: |
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- David Gruen & John Romalis & Naveen Chandra, 1997.
"The Lags of Monetary Policy,"
RBA Research Discussion Papers
rdp9702, Reserve Bank of Australia.
- Frank Smets, 1997.
"Financial-asset Prices and Monetary Policy: Theory and Evidence,"
RBA Annual Conference Volume,
in: Philip Lowe (ed.), Monetary Policy and Inflation Targeting
Reserve Bank of Australia.
- Frank Smets, 1997. "Financial asset prices and monetary policy: theory and evidence," BIS Working Papers 47, Bank for International Settlements.
- Smets, Frank, 1997. "Financial Asset Prices and Monetary Policy: Theory and Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 1751, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993.
"A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems,"
Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
- Tom Doan, . "SWDOLS: RATS procedure to estimate cointegrating vectors using dynamic OLS," Statistical Software Components RTS00207, Boston College Department of Economics.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1991. "A simple estimator of cointegrating vectors in higher order integrated systems," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 91-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Masih, Rumi & Masih, Abul M. M., 2000. "A Reassessment of Long-Run Elasticities of Japanese Import Demand," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 625-639, September.
- Phillips, P.C.B., 1986.
"Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression,"
Cahiers de recherche
8633, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Stephen G. Cecchetti & Hans Genberg & Sushil Wadhwani, 2002. "Asset Prices in a Flexible Inflation Targeting Framework," NBER Working Papers 8970, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Christopher Kent & Philip Lowe, 1997. "Asset-price Bubbles and Monetary Policy," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9709, Reserve Bank of Australia.
- Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
- Vickers, John, 2000. "Monetary Policy and Asset Prices," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 68(0), pages 1-22, Supplemen.
- repec:att:wimass:9220 is not listed on IDEAS
- Ben Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 2000.
"Monetary Policy and Asset Price Volatility,"
NBER Working Papers
7559, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ben Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1999. "Monetary policy and asset price volatility," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 77-128.
- Ben Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1999. "Monetary policy and asset price volatility," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q IV, pages 17-51.
- Gordon de Brouwer & Luci Ellis, 1998. "Forward-looking Behaviour and Credibility: Some Evidence and Implications for Policy," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9803, Reserve Bank of Australia.
- Muscatelli, Vito Antonio & Hurn, A Stan, 1992. " Cointegration and Dynamic Time Series Models," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(1), pages 1-43.
- Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
- Kenneth D. West & Whitney K. Newey, 1995.
"Automatic Lag Selection in Covariance Matrix Estimation,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0144, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1994. "Automatic Lag Selection in Covariance Matrix Estimation," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(4), pages 631-53, October.
- Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-72, August.
- Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
- Malcolm Edey & John Romalis, 1996. "Issues in Modelling Monetary Policy," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9604, Reserve Bank of Australia.
- Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-38, July.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eaa:ijaeqs:v:2:y2005:i:3_5. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (M. Carmen Guisan)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.