Financial Liberalization Causes Banking System Fragility
This paper explores theoretically and empirically the link between Financial Liberalization (FL) and the banking crisis that often follow. We also investigate the proposition, classical in development economics, that FL should result in an increase in supply of funds to the real sector. To accomplish this we first develop a theoretical model of a banking firm that operates under financial repression and is then subject to FL. The model yields the result that following FL there is an unambiguous increase in risk to the banking firm which implies a higher probability of a banking crisis following FL. Less formally, we also conclude that the presence of a explicit or implict deposit insurance scheme is likely to accentuate the incentives to engage in risk and the risk structure of the banking system. Moral hazard plays an important role in this increase in risk to the banking sector. This questions the ''innocence'' of the bank owners in the crisis that have often followed FL and that had been attributed to either macroeconomic policy, concomitant structural changes in the economy or left-over distortions from the financial repression period. The sign of the change in supply of credit to the real sector, however, is ambiguous. Then we test empirically the propositions resulting from this model using data of 73 banks (some of which may have become technically insolvent) from Greece, Malaysia, Mexico, Taiwan and Thailand. The tests tend to support the conclusions of the theoretical model, i.e. unambiguous increase in risk and, for the sample used, an unambiguous fall in loan supply as a proportion of funds available. Finally we draw policy implication with respect to bank supervision, forbearance and bank failure resolution procedures during the transition period, and about the so-called ''liberalization sequencing.''
|Date of creation:||18 Jun 1997|
|Note:||Type of Document - Tex/; prepared on IBM PC - ; to print on HP/PostScript/; pages: 44 ; figures: included/. Comments are wellcome.|
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://econwpa.repec.org|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Frederick T. Furlong, 1988. "Changes in bank risk," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue mar25.
- Chan, Yuk-Shee & Greenbaum, Stuart I. & Thakor, Anjan V., 1986.
"Information reusability, competition and bank asset quality,"
Journal of Banking & Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 243-253, June.
- Yuk-Shee Chan & Stuart I. Greenbaum & Anjan V. Thakor, 2004. "Information Reusability, Competition and Bank Asset Quality," Finance 0411049, EconWPA.
- Jaffee, Dwight M & Modigliani, Franco, 1969. "A Theory and Test of Credit Rationing," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(5), pages 850-872, December.
- William R. Keeton, 1984. "Deposit insurance and the deregulation of deposit rates," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Apr, pages 28-46.
- Frederick T. Furlong & Michael C. Keeley, 1991. "Capital regulation and bank risk-taking: a note (reprinted from Journal of Banking and Finance)," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Sum, pages 34-39.
- Nagarajan, S. & Sealey, C.W., 1993.
"Forbearance, Deposit Insurance Pricing, and Incentive Compatible Bank Regulation,"
93-05, Columbia - Graduate School of Business.
- Nagarajan, S. & Sealey, C. W., 1995. "Forbearance, deposit insurance pricing, and incentive compatible bank regulation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(6), pages 1109-1130, September.
- P. Honohan, 2000.
"Banking System Failures in Developing and Transition Countries: Diagnosis and Prediction,"
Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 29(1), pages 83-109, 02.
- Patrick Honohan, 1997. "Banking system failures in developing and transition countries: Diagnosis and predictions," BIS Working Papers 39, Bank for International Settlements.
- Klaus P. Fischer & Jean-Pierre Gueyie & Edgar Ortiz, 1997. "Financial Liberalization: Commercial Bank's Blessing or Curse?," Finance 9705003, EconWPA.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Khan, Mohsin, 1995.
"Macroeconomic Management in APEC Economies: The Response to Capital Inflows,"
8148, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Jones, David S. & King, Kathleen Kuester, 1995. "The implementation of prompt corrective action: An assessment," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3-4), pages 491-510, June.
- Koehn, Michael & Santomero, Anthony M, 1980. " Regulation of Bank Capital and Portfolio Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 35(5), pages 1235-1244, December.
- R. Alton Gilbert, 1994. "Federal Reserve lending to banks that failed: implications for the Bank Insurance Fund," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 3-18.
- Gjerde, Oystein & Semmen, Kristian, 1995. "Risk-based capital requirements and bank portfolio risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(7), pages 1159-1173, October.
- Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996.
"The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems,"
International Finance Discussion Papers
544, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1999. "The twin crises: The causes of banking and balance of payments problems," MPRA Paper 14081, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2000.
"Las crisis gemelas: las causas de los problemas bancarios y de balanza de pagos
[The twin crises: Te causes of banking and balance of payments problems]," MPRA Paper 13842, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Rothschild, Michael & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 1970. "Increasing risk: I. A definition," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 225-243, September.
- Larry D. Wall & Pamela P. Peterson, 1996. "Banks' responses to binding regulatory capital requirements," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Mar, pages 1-17.
- Tybout, James R, 1984. "Interest Control and Credit Allocation in Developing Countries," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 16(4), pages 474-487, November.
- Noe, Thomas H. & Rebello, Michael J. & Wall, Larry D., 1996. "Managerial rents and regulatory intervention in troubled banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 331-350, March.
- Mark D. Flood, 1992. "The great deposit insurance debate," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 51-77.
- Edward J. Kane & Min-Teh Yu, 1994. "How much did capital forbearance add to the tab for FSLIC mess?," Proceedings 33, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- R. Alton Gilbert, 1993. "Implications of annual examinations for the Bank Insurance Fund," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 35-52.
- Isard, Peter & Mathieson, Donald J. & Rojas-Suarez, Liliana, 1996.
"A framework for the analysis of financial reforms and the cost of official safety nets,"
Journal of Development Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 25-79, June.
- Peter Isard & Liliana Rojas-SuÃ¡rez & Donald J Mathieson, 1992. "A Framework for the Analysis of Financial Reforms and the Cost of official Safety Nets," IMF Working Papers 92/31, .
- Davis, E. Philip, 1995. "Debt, Financial Fragility, and Systemic Risk," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198233312.
- Stiglitz, Joseph E & Weiss, Andrew, 1981. "Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 393-410, June.
- R. Alton Gilbert, 1994. "Federal Reserve lending to banks that failed: implications for the Bank Insurance Fund," Proceedings 32, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Pyle, David H., 1986. "Capital regulation and deposit insurance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 189-201, June.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpfi:9706004. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (EconWPA)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.