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Financial Liberalization: Commercial Bank's Blessing or Curse?

  • Klaus P. Fischer

    (Laval University)

  • Jean-Pierre Gueyie

    (Laval University)

  • Edgar Ortiz

    (UNAM-Mexico)

The purpose of the paper is to evaluate and measure the effect of financial liberalization (FL) on bank risk exposure. We pursue these questions by assessing the changes in market-based asset values and risk exposure measures for commercial banks (CB) before and during a FL program. We do this for a sample of three countries: Malaysia, Taiwan and Thailand. We use a model based on the options pricing theory. We obtain estimates of the first and second moment of bank returns using an asset pricing model in which these two moments are a linear projection of a set of conditioning variables. This model was estimated using a GMM statistical procedure. Then we perform regressions explaining the evolution of bank risk measure around the FL event. The analysis and statistical test indicate that risk exposure of banks increases following a FL program, and this as a result of macroeconomic policy as well as changes in management controlled variables. This is so even for banks operating in countries that have undertaken very cautious FL processes such as Thailand and Malaysia. The results tend to support the proposition that moral hazard and bank risk taking may increase following FL. The results also suggest that banking crisis that often have followed FL may be more due to the behavior of banks managers than previously reported in the FL literature.

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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Finance with number 9705003.

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Length: 37 pages
Date of creation: 29 May 1997
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpfi:9705003
Note: 37 pages
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://econwpa.repec.org

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  1. Robert C. Merton & Zvi Bodie, 1992. "On the Management of Financial Guarantees," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 21(4), Winter.
  2. Sérgio Pereira Leite & V. Sundararajan, 1990. "Issues in Interest Rate Management and Liberalization," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 37(4), pages 735-752, December.
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  4. Berger, Allen N & Udell, Gregory F, 1994. "Do Risk-Based Capital Allocate Bank Credit and Cause a "Credit Crunch"' in the United States?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 26(3), pages 585-628, August.
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  8. Jorion, Philippe, 1995. " Predicting Volatility in the Foreign Exchange Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(2), pages 507-28, June.
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  11. Song, Frank M, 1994. "A Two-Factor ARCH Model for Deposit-Institution Stock Returns," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 26(2), pages 323-40, May.
  12. William R. Keeton, 1984. "Deposit insurance and the deregulation of deposit rates," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Apr, pages 28-46.
  13. Hull, John C & White, Alan D, 1987. " The Pricing of Options on Assets with Stochastic Volatilities," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(2), pages 281-300, June.
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  15. Frederick T. Furlong & Michael C. Keeley, 1991. "Capital regulation and bank risk-taking: a note (reprinted from Journal of Banking and Finance)," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Sum, pages 34-39.
  16. Coleen C. Pantalone & Marjorie B. Platt, 1987. "Predicting commercial bank failure since deregulation," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jul, pages 37-47.
  17. Merton, Robert C., 1977. "An analytic derivation of the cost of deposit insurance and loan guarantees An application of modern option pricing theory," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 3-11, June.
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