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A Two-Factor ARCH Model for Deposit-Institution Stock Returns

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  • Song, Frank M

Abstract

This paper specifies a two-factor model for a sample of deposit institutions. The factors are the market return and an interest rate factor. The two-factor model is specified with Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedacity (ARCH) modeling strategy and is estimated by Generalized Method of Moments (GMM). The market and interest rate risks are measured by their time-varying betas. The results suggest that the market risks have been volatile over the sample period 1977-87 and they increased and became more volatile after 1982. The interest rate risks were more stable and they did not respond to the Fed's regime change in monetary policy in 1979 and 1982. Specification tests suggest the usefulness of my two-factor ARCH model in the study of deposit-institution stock returns. Copyright 1994 by Ohio State University Press.

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  • Song, Frank M, 1994. "A Two-Factor ARCH Model for Deposit-Institution Stock Returns," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 26(2), pages 323-340, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:26:y:1994:i:2:p:323-40
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    Cited by:

    1. Klaus P. Fischer & Jean-Pierre Gueyie & Edgar Ortiz, 1997. "Financial Liberalization: Commercial Bank's Blessing or Curse?," Finance 9705003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Beverly Hirtle, 1997. "Derivatives, Portfolio Composition, and Bank Holding Company Interest Rate Risk Exposure," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 12(2), pages 243-266, October.
    3. Susan Ryan & Andrew C. Worthington, 2002. "Time-Varying Market, Interest Rate and Exchange Rate Risk in Australian Bank Portfolio Stock Returns: A Garch-M Approach," School of Economics and Finance Discussion Papers and Working Papers Series 112, School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology.
    4. Guidara, Alaa & Lai, Van Son & Soumaré, Issouf & Tchana, Fulbert Tchana, 2013. "Banks’ capital buffer, risk and performance in the Canadian banking system: Impact of business cycles and regulatory changes," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 3373-3387.
    5. Söhnke Bartram, 2002. "The Interest Rate Exposure of Nonfinancial Corporations," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 6(1), pages 101-125.
    6. Kwan, Simon H., 2003. "Impact of deposit rate deregulation in Hong Kong on the market value of commercial banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(12), pages 2231-2248, December.
    7. Kasman, Saadet & Vardar, Gülin & Tunç, Gökçe, 2011. "The impact of interest rate and exchange rate volatility on banks' stock returns and volatility: Evidence from Turkey," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 1328-1334, May.
    8. Fujen Daniel Hsiao & Yan Hu, 2014. "International Evidence of Spillover Effects of Deposit Rates: A Multivariate Garch Model," The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 8(1), pages 31-44.
    9. Papadamou, Stephanos & Siriopoulos, Costas, 2014. "Interest rate risk and the creation of the Monetary Policy Committee: Evidence from banks’ and life insurance companies’ stocks in the UK," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 45-67.
    10. Priti Verma & Dave Jackson, 2008. "Interest rate and bank stock returns asymmetry: Evidence from U.S. banks," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 32(2), pages 105-118, April.
    11. Elyasiani, Elyas & Zhang, Ling, 2013. "Bank Holding Company Performance, Risk and "Busy" Board of Directors," Working Papers 13-24, University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School, Weiss Center.
    12. Abdulnasser Hatemi-J & Eduardo Roca, 2008. "Estimating banks' equity duration: a panel cointegration approach," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(14), pages 1173-1180.
    13. Go Tamakoshi & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2014. "Causality-in-variance and causality-in-mean between the Greek sovereign bond yields and Southern European banking sector equity returns," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 38(4), pages 627-642, October.
    14. Xiangnan Meng & Xin Deng, 2013. "Interest Rate and Foreign Exchange Sensitivity of Bank Stock Returns: Evidence from China," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 17(1-2), pages 77-106, March - J.
    15. PRITI Verma, 2016. "The Impact Of Exchange Rates And Interest Rates On Bank Stock Returns: Evidence From U.S. Banks," Studies in Business and Economics, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 11(1), pages 124-139, April.
    16. Warren Dean & Robert Faff, 2011. "Feedback trading and the behavioural ICAPM: multivariate evidence across international equity and bond markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(22), pages 1665-1678.
    17. Mark Iarovyi & sasson Bar Yosef & Itzhak Venezia, 2017. "Implied Maturity Mismatches and Investor Disagreement," Proceedings of Economics and Finance Conferences 4507072, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.
    18. Papadamou, Stephanos & Tzivinikos, Trifon, 2013. "The risk relevance of International Financial Reporting Standards: Evidence from Greek banks," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 43-54.
    19. Elyasiani, Elyas & Zhang, Ling, 2015. "Bank holding company performance, risk, and “busy” board of directors," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 239-251.

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