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Monte Carlo Simulation of Macroeconomic Risk with a Continuum of Agents: The Symmetric Case

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  • Peter Hammond
  • Yeneng Sun

Abstract

October 2001 Suppose a large economy with individual risk is modeled by a continuum of pairwise exchangeable random variables (i.i.d., in particular). Then the relevant stochastic process is jointly measurable only in degenerate cases. Yet in Monte Carlo simulation, the average of a large finite draw of the random variables converges almost surely. Several necessary and sufficient conditions for such "Monte Carlo convergence" are given. Also, conditioned on the associated Monte Carlo sigma-algebra, which represents macroeconomic risk, individual agents' random shocks are independent. Furthermore, a converse to one version of the classical law of large numbers is proved. Working Papers Index

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  • Peter Hammond & Yeneng Sun, 2001. "Monte Carlo Simulation of Macroeconomic Risk with a Continuum of Agents: The Symmetric Case," Working Papers 01015, Stanford University, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:wop:stanec:01015
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    Cited by:

    1. YiLi Chien & Hanno Lustig, 2010. "The Market Price of Aggregate Risk and the Wealth Distribution," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(4), pages 1596-1650, April.
    2. Hammond, Peter J. & Sun, Yeneng, 2016. "The One-way Fubini Property and Conditional Independence : An Equivalence Result," CRETA Online Discussion Paper Series 22, Centre for Research in Economic Theory and its Applications CRETA.
    3. Krueger, Dirk & Lustig, Hanno, 2006. "The Irrelevance of Market Incompleteness for the Price of Aggregate Risk," CEPR Discussion Papers 5936, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Peter Hammond & Yeneng Sun, 2008. "Monte Carlo simulation of macroeconomic risk with a continuum of agents: the general case," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 36(2), pages 303-325, August.
    5. Lei Qiao & Yeneng Sun & Zhixiang Zhang, 2016. "Conditional exact law of large numbers and asymmetric information economies with aggregate uncertainty," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 62(1), pages 43-64, June.
    6. Sun, Yeneng & Yannelis, Nicholas C., 2007. "Core, equilibria and incentives in large asymmetric information economies," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 131-155, October.
    7. Sun, Yeneng, 2006. "The exact law of large numbers via Fubini extension and characterization of insurable risks," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 126(1), pages 31-69, January.
    8. Hammond, Peter J. & Sun, Yeneng, 2007. "Monte Carlo Simulation of Macroeconomic Risk with a Continuum Agents : The General Case," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 803, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    9. Krueger, Dirk & Lustig, Hanno, 2010. "When is market incompleteness irrelevant for the price of aggregate risk (and when is it not)?," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 145(1), pages 1-41, January.
    10. M. Ali Khan & Kali P. Rath & Yeneng Sun & Haomiao Yu, 2011. "On Large Games with a Bio-Social Typology," Economics Working Paper Archive 585, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.

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