Monte Carlo simulation of macroeconomic risk with a continuum of agents: the symmetric case
Suppose a large economy with individual risk is modeled by a continuum of pairwise exchangeable random variables (i.i.d., in particular). Then the relevant stochastic process is jointly measurable only in degenerate cases. Yet in Monte Carlo simulation, the average of a large finite draw of the random variables converges almost surely. Several necessary and sufficient conditions for such “Monte Carlo convergence” are given. Also, conditioned on the associated Monte Carlo -algebra, which represents macroeconomic risk, individual agents' random shocks are independent. Furthermore, a converse to one version of the classical law of large numbers is proved. Copyright Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2003
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 21 (2003)
Issue (Month): 2 (03)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://link.springer.de/link/service/journals/00199/index.htm|
|Order Information:||Web: http://link.springer.de/orders.htm|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Kutz, M. & Schneider, M., 1996.
"Coordination and Correlation in Markov Rational Belief Equilibria,"
281, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
- Mordecai Kurz & Martin Schneider, 1996. "Coordination and correlation in Markov rational belief equilibria (*)," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 8(3), pages 489-520.
- Matthew O. Jackson & Ehud Kalai & Rann Smorodinsky, 1998.
"Bayesian Representation of Stochastic Processes under Learning: de Finetti Revisited,"
1228, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
- Matthew O. Jackson & Ehud Kalai & Rann Smorodinsky, 1999. "Bayesian Representation of Stochastic Processes under Learning: de Finetti Revisited," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(4), pages 875-894, July.
- Kohlberg, Elon & Reny, Philip J., 1997. "Independence on Relative Probability Spaces and Consistent Assessments in Game Trees," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 280-313, August.
- Kurz, Mordecai, 1996. "Rational Beliefs and Endogenous Uncertainty," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 8(3), pages 383-97, October.
- Carsten Krabbe Nielsen, 1995.
"Rational Belief Structures and Rational Belief Equilibrium,"
95-14, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
- Carsten Krabbe Nielsen, 1996. "Rational belief structures and rational belief equilibria (*)," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 8(3), pages 399-422.
- Anderson, Robert M., 1991. "Non-standard analysis with applications to economics," Handbook of Mathematical Economics, in: W. Hildenbrand & H. Sonnenschein (ed.), Handbook of Mathematical Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 39, pages 2145-2208 Elsevier.
- Feldman, Mark & Gilles, Christian, 1985. "An expository note on individual risk without aggregate uncertainty," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 26-32, February.
- McCall, John J., 1991. "Exchangeability and its economic applications," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 549-568, July.
- M. Ali Khan & Yeneng Sun, 1999. "Weak measurability and characterizations of risk," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 541-560.
- Hans M. Amman & David A. Kendrick, . "Computational Economics," Online economics textbooks, SUNY-Oswego, Department of Economics, number comp1, March.
- Chamberlain, Gary, 2000. "Econometrics and decision theory," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 255-283, April.
- Peter J. Hammond & Yeneng Sun, 2000. "Joint Measurability and the One-way Fubini Property for a Continuum of Independent Random Variables," Working Papers 00008, Stanford University, Department of Economics.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:joecth:v:21:y:2003:i:2:p:743-766. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Guenther Eichhorn)or (Christopher F Baum)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.