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The IIASA Social Security Reform Project Multiregional Economic-Demographic Growth Model: Policy Background and Algebraic Structure

  • F.L. MacKellar
  • T.Y. Ermolieva
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    The model presented here is a neoclassical two-factor multiregional economic-demographic growth model. It is designed to assess the impacts of different -demographic futures, -labor-market scenarios, -combinations of accumulation-based and transfer-based pension systems, and -international portfolio allocations decisions on a range variables which play an important role in the population aging and social security reform debates. Among these are -the overall rate of economic growth, -the relative incomes of retirees and workers, -financial inflows into and out of the public and private pension systems and their implication for capital formation, and -international capital flows. The model tracks income and outlay of households by single-year age groups, as well as intergenerational transfers of resources via bequests. Households accumulate assets during working years and then dissave in retirement, in addition to which, intergenerational transfers between the working and the retired populations are mediated through the PAYG public pension system. Capital may be installed either at home or abroad. In this paper, the policy background is briefly summarized and the algebraic structure of the model is elaborated. Other \f2Interim Reports\f1 in this series describe the simulation and robustness characteristics of the model and present the results of model applications.

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    File URL: http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Publications/Documents/IR-99-007.pdf
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    Paper provided by International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in its series Working Papers with number ir99007.

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    Date of creation: Feb 1999
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    Handle: RePEc:wop:iasawp:ir99007
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    1. F.L. MacKellar & H. Reisen, 1998. "International Diversification of Pension Assets Is No Panacea for Population Aging," Working Papers ir98034, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
    2. repec:fth:harver:1490 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Landis MacKellar & Helmut Reisen, 1998. "A Simulation Model of Global Pension Investment," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 137, OECD Publishing.
    4. Sylvester J. Schieber & John B. Shoven, 1994. "The Consequences of Population Aging on Private Pension Fund Saving and Asset Markets," NBER Working Papers 4665, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. David M. Cutler & James M. Poterba & Louise M. Sheiner & Lawrence H. Summers, 1990. "An Aging Society: Opportunity or Challenge?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 21(1), pages 1-74.
    6. Blanchet, Didier & Kessler, Denis, 1992. "Pension Systems in Transition Economies: Perspectives and Choices Ahead," Public Finance = Finances publiques, , vol. 47(Supplemen), pages 21-33.
    7. A. Westlund & T.Y. Ermolieva & F.L. MacKellar, 1999. "Analysis and Forecasting of Social Security: A Study of Robustness," Working Papers ir99004, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
    8. Nicholas Barr, 1992. "Economic theory and the welfare state : a survey and interpretation," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 279, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    9. Paul R. Masson & Ralph W. Tryon, 1990. "Macroeconomic Effects of Projected Population Aging in Industrial Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 37(3), pages 453-485, September.
    10. Barr, Nicholas, 1992. "Economic Theory and the Welfare State: A Survey and Interpretation," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 30(2), pages 741-803, June.
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