IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wop/iasawp/ir99007.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The IIASA Social Security Reform Project Multiregional Economic-Demographic Growth Model: Policy Background and Algebraic Structure

Author

Listed:
  • F.L. MacKellar
  • T.Y. Ermolieva

Abstract

The model presented here is a neoclassical two-factor multiregional economic-demographic growth model. It is designed to assess the impacts of different -demographic futures, -labor-market scenarios, -combinations of accumulation-based and transfer-based pension systems, and -international portfolio allocations decisions on a range variables which play an important role in the population aging and social security reform debates. Among these are -the overall rate of economic growth, -the relative incomes of retirees and workers, -financial inflows into and out of the public and private pension systems and their implication for capital formation, and -international capital flows. The model tracks income and outlay of households by single-year age groups, as well as intergenerational transfers of resources via bequests. Households accumulate assets during working years and then dissave in retirement, in addition to which, intergenerational transfers between the working and the retired populations are mediated through the PAYG public pension system. Capital may be installed either at home or abroad. In this paper, the policy background is briefly summarized and the algebraic structure of the model is elaborated. Other \f2Interim Reports\f1 in this series describe the simulation and robustness characteristics of the model and present the results of model applications.

Suggested Citation

  • F.L. MacKellar & T.Y. Ermolieva, 1999. "The IIASA Social Security Reform Project Multiregional Economic-Demographic Growth Model: Policy Background and Algebraic Structure," Working Papers ir99007, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
    • Handle: RePEc:wop:iasawp:ir99007
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Publications/Documents/IR-99-007.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Publications/Documents/IR-99-007.ps
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Paul R. Masson & Ralph W. Tryon, 2019. "Macroeconomic Effects of Projected Population Aging in Industrial Countries," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Macroeconomic Modelling and Monetary and Exchange Rate Regimes, chapter 2, pages 17-56, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Sylvester J. Schieber & John B. Shoven, 1994. "The Consequences of Population Aging on Private Pension Fund Saving and Asset Markets," NBER Working Papers 4665, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Landis MacKellar & Helmut Reisen, 1998. "A Simulation Model of Global Pension Investment," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 137, OECD Publishing.
    4. Barr, Nicholas, 1992. "Economic Theory and the Welfare State: A Survey and Interpretation," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 30(2), pages 741-803, June.
    5. F.L. MacKellar & H. Reisen, 1998. "International Diversification of Pension Assets Is No Panacea for Population Aging," Working Papers ir98034, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
    6. David M. Cutler & James M. Poterba & Louise M. Sheiner & Lawrence H. Summers, 1990. "An Aging Society: Opportunity or Challenge?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 21(1), pages 1-74.
    7. F. Landis MacKellar & William P. McGreevey, 1999. "The Growth and Containment of Social Security Systems," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 17(1), pages 5-24, March.
    8. Barr, Nicholas, 1992. "Economic theory and the welfare state : a survey and interpretation," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 279, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    9. A. Westlund & T.Y. Ermolieva & F.L. MacKellar, 1999. "Analysis and Forecasting of Social Security: A Study of Robustness," Working Papers ir99004, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
    10. Blanchet, Didier & Kessler, Denis, 1992. "Pension Systems in Transition Economies: Perspectives and Choices Ahead," Public Finance = Finances publiques, , vol. 47(Supplemen), pages 21-33.
    11. James, Estelle, 1998. "New Models for Old-Age Security: Experiments, Evidence, and Unanswered Questions," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 13(2), pages 271-301, August.
    12. World Bank, 1994. "World Development Report 1994," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 5977, April.
    13. repec:fth:harver:1490 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. L.D. Mayhew, 1999. "Health and Welfare Services Expenditure in an Aging World," Working Papers ir99035, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
    2. T.Y. Ermolieva & F.L. MacKellar & A. Westlund, 1999. "Robustness to Stochastic Shocks of Alternative Old-Age Pension Arrangements: Macroeconomic Stability," Working Papers ir99024, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
    3. A.V. Dobronogov & L.D. Mayhew, 2000. "Pension Reform in a Highly Informalized Post-Soviet Economy," Working Papers ir00041, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
    4. F.L. MacKellar & T.Y. Ermolieva & H. Reisen, 1999. "Globalization, Social Security, and International Transfers," Working Papers ir99056, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. F.L. MacKellar & T.Y. Ermolieva & H. Reisen, 1999. "Globalization, Social Security, and International Transfers," Working Papers ir99056, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
    2. A. Westlund & T.Y. Ermolieva & F.L. MacKellar, 1999. "Analysis and Forecasting of Social Security: A Study of Robustness," Working Papers ir99004, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
    3. F.L. MacKellar & H. Reisen, 1998. "International Diversification of Pension Assets Is No Panacea for Population Aging," Working Papers ir98034, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
    4. Robert Holzmann, 2002. "Can Investments in Emerging Markets Help to Solve the Ageing Problem?," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 1(2), pages 215-241, September.
    5. A.V. Dobronogov, 1998. "Systems Analysis of Social Security in a Transition Economy: The Ukrainian Case," Working Papers ir98073, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
    6. Didier Blanchet, 1996. "La référence assurantielle en matière de protection sociale : apports et limites," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 291(1), pages 33-45.
    7. Kuhn, Andreas, 2011. "In the eye of the beholder: Subjective inequality measures and individuals' assessment of market justice," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 625-641.
    8. Murray, Christopher J. L. & Acharya, Arnab K., 1997. "Understanding DALYs," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(6), pages 703-730, December.
    9. Alves, C. & Guizzo, D., 2022. "Economic Theory and Policy Today: Lessons from Barbara Wootton and the Creation of the British Welfare State," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2246, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    10. James M. Poterba, 1998. "Population Age Structure and Asset Returns: An Empirical Investigation," NBER Working Papers 6774, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Rainer Kotschy & David E. Bloom, 2022. "A Comparative Perspective on Long-Term Care Systems," NBER Working Papers 29951, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Härpfer, Marco & Cacace, Mirella & Rothgang, Heinz, 2009. "And fairness for all? Wie gerecht ist die Finanzierung im deutschen Gesundheitssystem? Eine Berechnung des Kakwani-Index auf Basis der EVS," Working papers of the ZeS 04/2009, University of Bremen, Centre for Social Policy Research (ZeS).
    13. Giampaolo Arachi & Massimo D'Antoni, 2004. "Redistribution as Social Insurance and Capital Market Integration," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 11(4), pages 531-547, August.
    14. Kuhn, Andreas, 2009. "In the Eye of the Beholder: Subjective Inequality Measures and the Demand for Redistribution," IZA Discussion Papers 4360, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    15. von Berchem, Sascha & Berthold, Norbert, 2004. "Reform der Arbeitslosenversicherung: Markt, Staat oder beides?," Discussion Paper Series 70, Julius Maximilian University of Würzburg, Chair of Economic Order and Social Policy.
    16. Michael Feroli, 2003. "Capital flows among the G-7 nations: a demographic perspective," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-54, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    17. Boarini, Romina & Le Clainche, Christine, 2009. "Social preferences for public intervention: An empirical investigation based on French data," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 115-128, January.
    18. Sebastian Gechert, 2010. "Supplementary Private Health Insurance in Selected Countries: Lessons for EU Governments?," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 56(3), pages 444-464, September.
    19. Haddad, Lawrence & Oshaug, Arne, 1998. "How does the human rights perspective help to shape the food and nutrition policy research agenda?," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 329-345, October.
    20. Olivia S. Mitchell, 1998. "Administrative Costs in Public and Private Retirement Systems," NBER Chapters, in: Privatizing Social Security, pages 403-456, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wop:iasawp:ir99007. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Thomas Krichel (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iiasaat.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.