IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/oec/devaaa/137-en.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A Simulation Model of Global Pension Investment

Author

Listed:
  • Landis MacKellar
  • Helmut Reisen

Abstract

How and to what extent can a high degree of global financial integration help the fast-ageing OECD benefit from the delayed ageing process in the non-OECD area? The question is being raised with increasing urgency as it is slowly understood that even fully funded pension schemes will not escape demographic pressures in the absence of considerable capital flows between the ageing OECD and the younger part of the world.A simulation with a two-region neo-classical economic-demographic model reaches two basic conclusions of importance to policy makers. First, capital flows from fast-ageing, mostly OECD countries to slowly ageing, mostly developing countries can only slightly attenuate, but not reverse, the consequences of an ageing population on falling returns to capital. Second, significant distributional effects are likely to arise from the interaction of population ageing and financial integration. Global financial integration benefits elderly lifetime savers, but hurts elderly ... Une intégration financière poussée au niveau mondial peut-elle aider les pays de l’OCDE en vieillissement rapide à tirer parti de la maturation démographique moins avancée des autres pays ? Si oui, comment et dans quelle proportion ? Ces questions deviennent de plus en plus pressantes dans un contexte où l’on prend lentement conscience que les systèmes de retraite — même entièrement capitalisés — n’échapperont pas aux contraintes démographiques en l’absence de transferts de capitaux considérables entre la zone de l’OCDE et les pays plus jeunes.Un modèle de simulation néoclassique « économie-démographie » portant sur deux régions met en évidence deux conclusions fondamentales pour les décideurs. D’une part, les flux de capitaux depuis les pays à vieillissement rapide (principalement la zone de l’OCDE) vers les pays plus jeunes (surtout des pays en développement) ne peuvent qu’atténuer légèrement — sans les annuler — les effets du vieillissement sur la baisse des rendements du ...

Suggested Citation

  • Landis MacKellar & Helmut Reisen, 1998. "A Simulation Model of Global Pension Investment," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 137, OECD Publishing.
  • Handle: RePEc:oec:devaaa:137-en
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/064457031713
    Download Restriction: no

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Robert Holzmann, 2002. "Can Investments in Emerging Markets Help to Solve the Ageing Problem?," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 1(2), pages 215-241, September.
    2. F.L. MacKellar & T.Y. Ermolieva & H. Reisen, 1999. "Globalization, Social Security, and International Transfers," Working Papers ir99056, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
    3. Mosolygó, Zsuzsa, 2010. "A tőkefedezeti rendszer alapkérdéseinek új megközelítése
      [A new approach to the basic issues raised by the PAYE system]
      ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(7), pages 612-633.
    4. Helmut Reisen, 1998. "Sustainable and Excessive Current Account Deficits," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 25(2), pages 111-131, January.
    5. A.V. Dobronogov, 1998. "Systems Analysis of Social Security in a Transition Economy: The Ukrainian Case," Working Papers ir98073, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
    6. F.L. MacKellar & T.Y. Ermolieva, 1999. "The IIASA Social Security Reform Project Multiregional Economic-Demographic Growth Model: Policy Background and Algebraic Structure," Working Papers ir99007, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
    7. A. Westlund & T.Y. Ermolieva & F.L. MacKellar, 1999. "Analysis and Forecasting of Social Security: A Study of Robustness," Working Papers ir99004, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
    8. Narciso, Alexandre, 2010. "The impact of population ageing on international capital flows," MPRA Paper 26457, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Eduardo Siandra, 1999. "La inversión extranjera de los fondos de pensiones y el desarrollo del mercado de capitales doméstico," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 0599, Department of Economics - dECON.
    10. Maria Ogonek, 2003. "Transformation of the Repartition Pension System into a Mixed System," Ekonomia journal, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw, vol. 10.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oec:devaaa:137-en. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/dcoecfr.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.